40,374 research outputs found
Sequential Bayesian updating for Big Data
The velocity, volume, and variety of big data present both challenges and opportunities for cognitive science. We introduce sequential Bayesian updat-ing as a tool to mine these three core properties. In the Bayesian approach, we summarize the current state of knowledge regarding parameters in terms of their posterior distributions, and use these as prior distributions when new data become available. Crucially, we construct posterior distributions in such a way that we avoid having to repeat computing the likelihood of old data as new data become available, allowing the propagation of information without great computational demand. As a result, these Bayesian methods allow continuous inference on voluminous information streams in a timely manner. We illustrate the advantages of sequential Bayesian updating with data from the MindCrowd project, in which crowd-sourced data are used to study Alzheimer’s Dementia. We fit an extended LATER (Linear Ap-proach to Threshold with Ergodic Rate) model to reaction time data from the project in order to separate two distinct aspects of cognitive functioning: speed of information accumulation and caution
SMCTC : sequential Monte Carlo in C++
Sequential Monte Carlo methods are a very general class of Monte Carlo methods for sampling from sequences of distributions. Simple examples of these algorithms are used very widely in the tracking and signal processing literature. Recent developments illustrate that these techniques have much more general applicability, and can be applied very effectively to statistical inference problems. Unfortunately, these methods are often perceived as being computationally expensive and difficult to implement. This article seeks to address both of these problems. A C++ template class library for the efficient and convenient implementation of very general Sequential Monte Carlo algorithms is presented. Two example applications are provided: a simple particle filter for illustrative purposes and a state-of-the-art algorithm for rare event estimation
Fitting Effective Diffusion Models to Data Associated with a "Glassy Potential": Estimation, Classical Inference Procedures and Some Heuristics
A variety of researchers have successfully obtained the parameters of low
dimensional diffusion models using the data that comes out of atomistic
simulations. This naturally raises a variety of questions about efficient
estimation, goodness-of-fit tests, and confidence interval estimation. The
first part of this article uses maximum likelihood estimation to obtain the
parameters of a diffusion model from a scalar time series. I address numerical
issues associated with attempting to realize asymptotic statistics results with
moderate sample sizes in the presence of exact and approximated transition
densities. Approximate transition densities are used because the analytic
solution of a transition density associated with a parametric diffusion model
is often unknown.I am primarily interested in how well the deterministic
transition density expansions of Ait-Sahalia capture the curvature of the
transition density in (idealized) situations that occur when one carries out
simulations in the presence of a "glassy" interaction potential. Accurate
approximation of the curvature of the transition density is desirable because
it can be used to quantify the goodness-of-fit of the model and to calculate
asymptotic confidence intervals of the estimated parameters. The second part of
this paper contributes a heuristic estimation technique for approximating a
nonlinear diffusion model. A "global" nonlinear model is obtained by taking a
batch of time series and applying simple local models to portions of the data.
I demonstrate the technique on a diffusion model with a known transition
density and on data generated by the Stochastic Simulation Algorithm.Comment: 30 pages 10 figures Submitted to SIAM MMS (typos removed and slightly
shortened
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