Assessing water renewal time scales for marine environments from three-dimensional modelling: a case study for Hervey Bay, Australia

We apply the three-dimensional Coupled Hydrodynamical Ecological model for Regional Shelf Seas (COHERENS) to compute water renewal time scales for Hervey Bay, a large coastal embayment situated off the central eastern coast of Australia. Water renewal time scales are not directly observable but are derived indirectly from computational studies. Improved knowledge of these time scales assists in evaluating the water quality of coastal environments and can be utilised in sustainable marine resource management. Results from simulations with climatological September forcing are presented and compared to cruise data reported by Ribbe (2006). A series of simulations using idealised forcing provides detailed insight into water renewal pathways and regional differences in renewal timescales. We find that more than 85 % of the coastal embayment’s water is fully renewed within about 50-80 days. The eastern and western shallow coastal regions are ventilated more rapidly than the central, deeper part of the domain. The climatological simulation yields temperature and salinity patterns that are consistent with the observed situation and water renewal times scales in the range of those derived from idealised model studies. While the reported simulations involve many simplifications, the global assessment of the renewal time scale is in the range of a previous estimate derived for this coastal embayment from a simpler model and observational data

Challenges in quantifying changes in the global water cycle

Human influences have likely already impacted the large-scale water cycle but natural variability and observational uncertainty are substantial. It is essential to maintain and improve observational capabilities to better characterize changes. Understanding observed changes to the global water cycle is key to predicting future climate changes and their impacts. While many datasets document crucial variables such as precipitation, ocean salinity, runoff, and humidity, most are uncertain for determining long-term changes. In situ networks provide long time-series over land but are sparse in many regions, particularly the tropics. Satellite and reanalysis datasets provide global coverage, but their long-term stability is lacking. However, comparisons of changes among related variables can give insights into the robustness of observed changes. For example, ocean salinity, interpreted with an understanding of ocean processes, can help cross-validate precipitation. Observational evidence for human influences on the water cycle is emerging, but uncertainties resulting from internal variability and observational errors are too large to determine whether the observed and simulated changes are consistent. Improvements to the in situ and satellite observing networks that monitor the changing water cycle are required, yet continued data coverage is threatened by funding reductions. Uncertainty both in the role of anthropogenic aerosols, and due to large climate variability presently limits confidence in attribution of observed changes

Spatial effects on species persistence and implications for biodiversity

Natural ecosystems are characterized by striking diversity of form and functions and yet exhibit deep symmetries emerging across scales of space, time and organizational complexity. Species-area relationships and species-abundance distributions are examples of emerging patterns irrespective of the details of the underlying ecosystem functions. Here we present empirical and theoretical evidence for a new macroecological pattern related to the distributions of local species persistence times, defined as the timespans between local colonizations and extinctions in a given geographic region. Empirical distributions pertaining to two different taxa, breeding birds and herbaceous plants, analyzed in a new framework that accounts for the finiteness of the observational period, exhibit power-law scaling limited by a cut-off determined by the rate of emergence of new species. In spite of the differences between taxa and spatial scales of analysis, the scaling exponents are statistically indistinguishable from each other and significantly different from those predicted by existing models. We theoretically investigate how the scaling features depend on the structure of the spatial interaction network and show that the empirical scaling exponents are reproduced once a two-dimensional isotropic texture is used, regardless of the details of the ecological interactions. The framework developed here also allows to link the cut-off timescale with the spatial scale of analysis, and the persistence-time distribution to the species-area relationship. We conclude that the inherent coherence obtained between spatial and temporal macroecological patterns points at a seemingly general feature of the dynamical evolution of ecosystems.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figures. Supplementary materials avaliable on http://www.pnas.org/content/108/11/434

Functional electrical stimulation for foot drop in multiple sclerosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the effect on gait speed

Objective: To review the efficacy of functional electrical stimulation (FES) used for foot drop in people with multiple sclerosis (pwMS) on gait speed in short and long walking performance tests. Data sources: Five databases (Cochrane Library, CINAHL, Embase, MEDLINE, Pubmed) and reference lists were searched. Study selection: Studies of both observational and experimental design where gait speed data in pwMS could be extracted were included. Data extraction: Data were independently extracted and recorded. Methodological quality was assessed using the Effective Public Health Practice Project (EPHPP) tool. Data synthesis: Nineteen studies (described in 20 articles) recruiting 490 pwMS were identified and rated moderate or weak, with none gaining a strong rating. All studies rated weak for blinding. Initial and ongoing orthotic and therapeutic effects were assessed with regards to the impact of FES on gait speed in short and long walking tests. Meta-analyses of the short walk tests revealed a significant initial orthotic effect (t = 2.14, p = 0.016) with a mean increase in gait speed of 0.05 meters per second (m/s) and ongoing orthotic effect (t = 2.81, p = 0.003) with a mean increase of 0.08m/s. There were no initial or ongoing effect on gait speed in long walk tests and no therapeutic effect on gait speed in either short or long walk tests. Conclusions: FES used for foot drop has a positive initial and ongoing effect on gait speed in short walking tests. Further fully-powered randomized controlled trials comparing FES with alternative treatments are required

Applied statistics: A review

The main phases of applied statistical work are discussed in general terms. The account starts with the clarification of objectives and proceeds through study design, measurement and analysis to interpretation. An attempt is made to extract some general notions.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOAS113 in the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

The Data Processing Pipeline for the Herschel-HIFI Instrument

The HIFI data processing pipeline was developed to systematically process diagnostic, calibration and astronomical observations taken with the HIFI science instrumentas part of the Herschel mission. The HIFI pipeline processed data from all HIFI observing modes within the Herschel automated processing environment, as well as, within an interactive environment. A common software framework was developed to best support the use cases required by the instrument teams and by the general astronomers. The HIFI pipeline was built on top of that and was designed with a high degree of modularity. This modular design provided the necessary flexibility and extensibility to deal with the complexity of batch-processing eighteen different observing modes, to support the astronomers in the interactive analysis and to cope with adjustments necessary to improve the pipeline and the quality of the end-products. This approach to the software development and data processing effort was arrived at by coalescing the lessons learned from similar research based projects with the understanding that a degree of foresight was required given the overall length of the project. In this article, both the successes and challenges of the HIFI software development process are presented. To support future similar projects and retain experience gained lessons learned are extracted.Comment: 18 pages, 5 figure

Global deposition of total reactive nitrogen oxides from 1996 to 2014 constrained with satellite observations of NO2 columns

Reactive nitrogen oxides (NOy) are a major constituent of the nitrogen deposited from the atmosphere, but observational constraints on their deposition are limited by poor or nonexistent measurement coverage in many parts of the world. Here we apply NO2 observations from multiple satellite instruments (GOME, SCIAMACHY, and GOME-2) to constrain the global deposition of NOy over the last 2 decades. We accomplish this by producing top-down estimates of NOx emissions from inverse modeling of satellite NO2 columns over 1996–2014, and including these emissions in the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to simulate chemistry, transport, and deposition of NOy. Our estimates of long-term mean wet nitrate (NO3−) deposition are highly consistent with available measurements in North America, Europe, and East Asia combined (r = 0.83, normalized mean bias  = −7%, N = 136). Likewise, our calculated trends in wet NO3− deposition are largely consistent with the measurements, with 129 of the 136 gridded model–data pairs sharing overlapping 95% confidence intervals. We find that global mean NOy deposition over 1996–2014 is 56.0TgNyr−1, with a minimum in 2006 of 50.5TgN and a maximum in 2012 of 60.8TgN. Regional trends are large, with opposing signs in different parts of the world. Over 1996 to 2014, NOy deposition decreased by up to 60% in eastern North America, doubled in regions of East Asia, and declined by 20% in parts of western Europe. About 40% of the global NOy deposition occurs over oceans, with deposition to the North Atlantic Ocean declining and deposition to the northwestern Pacific Ocean increasing. Using the residual between NOx emissions and NOy deposition over specific land regions, we investigate how NOx export via atmospheric transport has changed over the last 2 decades. Net export from the continental United States decreased substantially, from 2.9TgNyr−1 in 1996 to 1.5TgNyr−1 in 2014. Export from China more than tripled between 1996 and 2011 (from 1.0 to 3.5TgNyr−1), before a striking decline to 2.5TgNyr−1 by 2014. We find that declines in NOx export from some western European countries have counteracted increases in emissions from neighboring countries to the east. A sensitivity study indicates that simulated NOy deposition is robust to uncertainties in NH3 emissions with a few exceptions. Our novel long-term study provides timely context on the rapid redistribution of atmospheric nitrogen transport and subsequent deposition to ecosystems around the world.This work was supported by NSERC and Environment and Climate Change Canada. We acknowledge the free use of tropospheric NO2 column data from the GOME, SCIAMACHY, and GOME-2 sensors from www.temis.nl. We further acknowledge the NADP, CAPMoN, EMEP, and EANET regional monitoring networks as well as the World Data Centre for Precipitation Chemistry for access to wet deposition data. (NSERC; Environment and Climate Change Canada)https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/17/10071/2017/acp-17-10071-2017.pdfhttps://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/17/10071/2017/acp-17-10071-2017.pdfhttps://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/17/10071/2017/acp-17-10071-2017.pdfPublished versionPublished versio