Modeling Financial Time Series with Artificial Neural Networks

Financial time series convey the decisions and actions of a population of human actors over time. Econometric and regressive models have been developed in the past decades for analyzing these time series. More recently, biologically inspired artificial neural network models have been shown to overcome some of the main challenges of traditional techniques by better exploiting the non-linear, non-stationary, and oscillatory nature of noisy, chaotic human interactions. This review paper explores the options, benefits, and weaknesses of the various forms of artificial neural networks as compared with regression techniques in the field of financial time series analysis.CELEST, a National Science Foundation Science of Learning Center (SBE-0354378); SyNAPSE program of the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (HR001109-03-0001

Robust stability for stochastic Hopfield neural networks with time delays

This is the post print version of the article. The official published version can be obtained from the link below - Copyright 2006 Elsevier Ltd.In this paper, the asymptotic stability analysis problem is considered for a class of uncertain stochastic neural networks with time delays and parameter uncertainties. The delays are time-invariant, and the uncertainties are norm-bounded that enter into all the network parameters. The aim of this paper is to establish easily verifiable conditions under which the delayed neural network is robustly asymptotically stable in the mean square for all admissible parameter uncertainties. By employing a Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional and conducting the stochastic analysis, a linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach is developed to derive the stability criteria. The proposed criteria can be checked readily by using some standard numerical packages, and no tuning of parameters is required. Examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed criteria.This work was supported in part by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) of the UK under Grant GR/S27658/01, the Nuffield Foundation of the UK under Grant NAL/00630/G, and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation of German

Stochastic stability of uncertain Hopfield neural networks with discrete and distributed delays

This is the post print version of the article. The official published version can be obtained from the link below - Copyright 2006 Elsevier Ltd.This Letter is concerned with the global asymptotic stability analysis problem for a class of uncertain stochastic Hopfield neural networks with discrete and distributed time-delays. By utilizing a Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional, using the well-known S-procedure and conducting stochastic analysis, we show that the addressed neural networks are robustly, globally, asymptotically stable if a convex optimization problem is feasible. Then, the stability criteria are derived in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), which can be effectively solved by some standard numerical packages. The main results are also extended to the multiple time-delay case. Two numerical examples are given to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed global stability condition.This work was supported in part by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) of the UK under Grant GR/S27658/01, the Nuffield Foundation of the UK under Grant NAL/00630/G, and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation of Germany

Technology Directions for the 21st Century

The Office of Space Communications (OSC) is tasked by NASA to conduct a planning process to meet NASA's science mission and other communications and data processing requirements. A set of technology trend studies was undertaken by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) for OSC to identify quantitative data that can be used to predict performance of electronic equipment in the future to assist in the planning process. Only commercially available, off-the-shelf technology was included. For each technology area considered, the current state of the technology is discussed, future applications that could benefit from use of the technology are identified, and likely future developments of the technology are described. The impact of each technology area on NASA operations is presented together with a discussion of the feasibility and risk associated with its development. An approximate timeline is given for the next 15 to 25 years to indicate the anticipated evolution of capabilities within each of the technology areas considered. This volume contains four chapters: one each on technology trends for database systems, computer software, neural and fuzzy systems, and artificial intelligence. The principal study results are summarized at the beginning of each chapter

Trajectory prediction of moving objects by means of neural networks

Thesis (Master)--Izmir Institute of Technology, Computer Engineering, Izmir, 1997Includes bibliographical references (leaves: 103-105)Text in English; Abstract: Turkish and Englishviii, 105 leavesEstimating the three-dimensional motion of an object from a sequence of object positions and orientation is of significant importance in variety of applications in control and robotics. For instance, autonomous navigation, manipulation, servo, tracking, planning and surveillance needs prediction of motion parameters. Although "motion estimation" is an old problem (the formulations date back to the beginning of the century), only recently scientists have provided with the tools from nonlinear system estimation theory to solve this problem eural Networks are the ones which have recently been used in many nonlinear dynamic system parameter estimation context. The approximating ability of the neural network is used to identifY the relation between system variables and parameters of a dynamic system. The position, velocity and acceleration of the object are estimated by several neural networks using the II most recent measurements of the object coordinates as input to the system Several neural network topologies with different configurations are introduced and utilized in the solution of the problem. Training schemes for each configuration are given in detail. Simulation results for prediction of motion having different characteristics via different architectures with alternative configurations are presented comparatively