Failure Prognosis of Wind Turbine Components

Wind energy is playing an increasingly significant role in the World\u27s energy supply mix. In North America, many utility-scale wind turbines are approaching, or are beyond the half-way point of their originally anticipated lifespan. Accurate estimation of the times to failure of major turbine components can provide wind farm owners insight into how to optimize the life and value of their farm assets. This dissertation deals with fault detection and failure prognosis of critical wind turbine sub-assemblies, including generators, blades, and bearings based on data-driven approaches. The main aim of the data-driven methods is to utilize measurement data from the system and forecast the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of faulty components accurately and efficiently. The main contributions of this dissertation are in the application of ALTA lifetime analysis to help illustrate a possible relationship between varying loads and generators reliability, a wavelet-based Probability Density Function (PDF) to effectively detecting incipient wind turbine blade failure, an adaptive Bayesian algorithm for modeling the uncertainty inherent in the bearings RUL prediction horizon, and a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for characterizing the bearing damage progression based on varying operating states to mimic a real condition in which wind turbines operate and to recognize that the damage progression is a function of the stress applied to each component using data from historical failures across three different Canadian wind farms

Failure Diagnosis and Prognosis of Safety Critical Systems: Applications in Aerospace Industries

Many safety-critical systems such as aircraft, space crafts, and large power plants are required to operate in a reliable and efficient working condition without any performance degradation. As a result, fault diagnosis and prognosis (FDP) is a research topic of great interest in these systems. FDP systems attempt to use historical and current data of a system, which are collected from various measurements to detect faults, diagnose the types of possible failures, predict and manage failures in advance. This thesis deals with FDP of safety-critical systems. For this purpose, two critical systems including a multifunctional spoiler (MFS) and hydro-control value system are considered, and some challenging issues from the FDP are investigated. This research work consists of three general directions, i.e., monitoring, failure diagnosis, and prognosis. The proposed FDP methods are based on data-driven and model-based approaches. The main aim of the data-driven methods is to utilize measurement data from the system and forecast the remaining useful life (RUL) of the faulty components accurately and efficiently. In this regard, two dierent methods are developed. A modular FDP method based on a divide and conquer strategy is presented for the MFS system. The modular structure contains three components:1) fault diagnosis unit, 2) failure parameter estimation unit and 3) RUL unit. The fault diagnosis unit identifies types of faults based on an integration of neural network (NN) method and discrete wavelet transform (DWT) technique. Failure parameter estimation unit observes the failure parameter via a distributed neural network. Afterward, the RUL of the system is predicted by an adaptive Bayesian method. In another work, an innovative data-driven FDP method is developed for hydro-control valve systems. The idea is to use redundancy in multi-sensor data information and enhance the performance of the FDP system. Therefore, a combination of a feature selection method and support vector machine (SVM) method is applied to select proper sensors for monitoring of the hydro-valve system and isolate types of fault. Then, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) method is used to estimate the failure path. Similarly, an online Bayesian algorithm is implemented for forecasting RUL. Model-based methods employ high-delity physics-based model of a system for prognosis task. In this thesis, a novel model-based approach based on an integrated extended Kalman lter (EKF) and Bayesian method is introduced for the MFS system. To monitor the MFS system, a residual estimation method using EKF is performed to capture the progress of the failure. Later, a transformation is utilized to obtain a new measure to estimate the degradation path (DP). Moreover, the recursive Bayesian algorithm is invoked to predict the RUL. Finally, relative accuracy (RA) measure is utilized to assess the performance of the proposed methods

Aggregated DER Management in Advanced Distribution Grids

Evolution of modern power systems are more distinct in distribution grids, where the growing integration of microgrids as well as distributed energy resources (DERs), including renewable energy resources, electric vehicles (EVs), and energy storage, poses new challenges and opportunities to grid management and operation. Rapid growth of distribution automation as well as equipment monitoring technologies in the distribution grids further offer new opportunities for distribution asset management. The idea of aggregated DERs is proposed as a remedy to streamline management and operation of advanced distribution grids, as discussed under three subjects in this dissertation. The first subject matter focuses on DER aggregation in microgrid for distribution transformer asset management, while the second one stresses on aggregated DER for developing a spinning reserve-based optimal scheduling model of integrated microgrids. The aggregation of EV batteries in a battery swapping stations (BSS) for enhancing grid operation is investigated in the third subject. Distribution transformer, as the most critical component in the distribution grids, is selected as the component of the choice for asset management practices, where three asset management studies are proposed. First, an approach in estimating transformer lifetime is presented based on the IEEE Std. C57.91-2011 and using sensory data. Second, a methodology to obtain a low-error estimate of transformer loss-of-life is investigated, leveraging an integrated machine learning and data fusion technique. Finally, a microgrid-based distribution transformer asset management model is developed to prolong the transformer lifetime. The resulting model aims at reshaping the distribution transformer loading via aggregating microgrid DERs in an efficient and asset management-aware manner. The increasing penetration of microgrids in distribution grids sets the stage for the formation of multiple microgrids in an integrated fashion. Accordingly, a spinning reserved based optimal scheduling model for integrated microgrids is proposed to minimize not only the operation cost associated with all microgrids in the grid-connected operation, but also the costs of power deficiency and spinning reserve in the islanded operation mode. The resulting model aims at determining an optimal configuration of the system in the islanded operation, i.e., optimal super-holons combination, which plays a key role in minimizing the system-aggregated operation cost and improving the overall system reliability. The evolving distribution grids introduce the concept of the BSS, which is emerging as a viable means for fast energy refill of EVs, to offer energy and ancillary services to the distribution grids through DER aggregation. Using a mixed-integer linear programming method, an uncertainty-constrained BSS optimal operation model is presented that not only covers the random customer demands of fully charged batteries, but also focuses on aggregating the available distributed batteries in the BSS to reduce its operation cost. Furthermore, the BSS is introduced as an energy storage for mitigating solar photovoltaic (PV) output fluctuations, where the distributed batteries in the BSS are modeled as an aggregated energy storage to capture solar generation variability. Numerical simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed models as well as their respective viability in achieving the predefined operational objectives

Individual and ensemble functional link neural networks for data classification

This study investigated the Functional Link Neural Network (FLNN) for solving data classification problems. FLNN based models were developed using evolutionary methods as well as ensemble methods. The outcomes of the experiments covering benchmark classification problems, positively demonstrated the efficacy of the proposed models for undertaking data classification problems

Technical and Economic Impact of the Inertia Constraints on Power Plant Unit Commitment

The whole interconnected European network is involved in the energy transition towards power systems based on renewable power electronics interfaced generation. In this context, the major concerns for both network planning and operation are the inertia reduction and the frequency control due to the progressive decommissioning of thermal power plants with synchronous generators. This paper investigates the impact of different frequency control constraints on the unit commitment of power plants resulting from market simulations. The market outputs are compared in terms of system costs, and of frequency stability performance evaluated on the basis of the rate of change of frequency and the maximum frequency excursion. The best compromise solution is found using a multiple-criteria decision analysis method, depending on the choice of the decision maker’s weighting factors. The proposed approach is tested on a real case taken from one of the most relevant future scenarios of the Italian transmission system operator. The results show how the best compromise solution that can be found depends on the decision maker preference towards cost-based or frequency stability-based criteria

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been in the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The lack of a free-lunch theorem implies the need for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle an array of applications. This unique article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We offer a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts, including operations, economics, finance, energy, environment, and social good. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. The list was compiled based on the expertise and interests of the authors. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of the forecasting theory and practice

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases