20,954 research outputs found
Volatility forecasting
Volatility has been one of the most active and successful areas of research in time series econometrics and economic forecasting in recent decades. This chapter provides a selective survey of the most important theoretical developments and empirical insights to emerge from this burgeoning literature, with a distinct focus on forecasting applications. Volatility is inherently latent, and Section 1 begins with a brief intuitive account of various key volatility concepts. Section 2 then discusses a series of different economic situations in which volatility plays a crucial role, ranging from the use of volatility forecasts in portfolio allocation to density forecasting in risk management. Sections 3, 4 and 5 present a variety of alternative procedures for univariate volatility modeling and forecasting based on the GARCH, stochastic volatility and realized volatility paradigms, respectively. Section 6 extends the discussion to the multivariate problem of forecasting conditional covariances and correlations, and Section 7 discusses volatility forecast evaluation methods in both univariate and multivariate cases. Section 8 concludes briefly. JEL Klassifikation: C10, C53, G1
Singular Continuation: Generating Piece-wise Linear Approximations to Pareto Sets via Global Analysis
We propose a strategy for approximating Pareto optimal sets based on the
global analysis framework proposed by Smale (Dynamical systems, New York, 1973,
pp. 531-544). The method highlights and exploits the underlying manifold
structure of the Pareto sets, approximating Pareto optima by means of
simplicial complexes. The method distinguishes the hierarchy between singular
set, Pareto critical set and stable Pareto critical set, and can handle the
problem of superposition of local Pareto fronts, occurring in the general
nonconvex case. Furthermore, a quadratic convergence result in a suitable
set-wise sense is proven and tested in a number of numerical examples.Comment: 29 pages, 12 figure
Modelling network travel time reliability under stochastic demand
A technique is proposed for estimating the probability distribution of total network travel time, in the light of normal day-to-day variations in the travel demand matrix over a road traffic network. A solution method is proposed, based on a single run of a standard traffic assignment model, which operates in two stages. In stage one, moments of the total travel time distribution are computed by an analytic method, based on the multivariate moments of the link flow vector. In stage two, a flexible family of density functions is fitted to these moments. It is discussed how the resulting distribution may in practice be used to characterise unreliability. Illustrative numerical tests are reported on a simple network, where the method is seen to provide a means for identifying sensitive or vulnerable links, and for examining the impact on network reliability of changes to link capacities. Computational considerations for large networks, and directions for further research, are discussed
A continuous analogue of the tensor-train decomposition
We develop new approximation algorithms and data structures for representing
and computing with multivariate functions using the functional tensor-train
(FT), a continuous extension of the tensor-train (TT) decomposition. The FT
represents functions using a tensor-train ansatz by replacing the
three-dimensional TT cores with univariate matrix-valued functions. The main
contribution of this paper is a framework to compute the FT that employs
adaptive approximations of univariate fibers, and that is not tied to any
tensorized discretization. The algorithm can be coupled with any univariate
linear or nonlinear approximation procedure. We demonstrate that this approach
can generate multivariate function approximations that are several orders of
magnitude more accurate, for the same cost, than those based on the
conventional approach of compressing the coefficient tensor of a tensor-product
basis. Our approach is in the spirit of other continuous computation packages
such as Chebfun, and yields an algorithm which requires the computation of
"continuous" matrix factorizations such as the LU and QR decompositions of
vector-valued functions. To support these developments, we describe continuous
versions of an approximate maximum-volume cross approximation algorithm and of
a rounding algorithm that re-approximates an FT by one of lower ranks. We
demonstrate that our technique improves accuracy and robustness, compared to TT
and quantics-TT approaches with fixed parameterizations, of high-dimensional
integration, differentiation, and approximation of functions with local
features such as discontinuities and other nonlinearities
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