397,925 research outputs found
Cash flow forecast for South African firms
This paper applies models in the extant literature that have been used to forecast operating cash flows to predict the cash flows of South African firms listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Out-of-sample performance is examined for each model and compared between them. The reported results show that some accrual terms, i.e. depreciation and changes in inventory do not enhance cash flow prediction for the average South African firm in contrast to the reported results of studies in USA and Australia. Inclusion of more explanatory variables does not necessarily improve the models, according to the out-of-sample results. The paper proposes the application of moving average model in panel data, and vector regressive model for multi-period-ahead prediction of cash flows for South Africa firms
Effects of diagram format and user numeracy on understanding cash flow data
An issue of longstanding concern in accounting information systems is the effective presentation and communication of financial data to users with little accounting background. Cash flow statements in particular have been singled out as difficult to interpret. To increase user understanding of cash flow data, this study explores the potential merits of diagram formats, as well as possible effects of the userâs numeracy skills. The study covers an experiment (N = 100) in which users were queried on their understanding of the cash flows of a real-world company, and in which type of format was either a cash flow statement or a cash flow diagram. Understanding was measured by three different concepts: interpretation accuracy, company diagnosis, and clarity of presentation. The study confirms that, on those measures, diagrams do not necessarily outperform cash flow statements, and that format familiarity (irrespective of the type of format) is a key driver in understanding cash flows. In addition, the study finds that numeric preference, but not numeric ability, helps in understanding cash flow data. The study discusses the sobering implications for designers of accounting information systems
Decision theory and real estate development: a note on uncertainty
Real estate development appraisal is a quantification of future expectations. The appraisal model relies upon the valuer/developer having an understanding of the future in terms of the future marketability of the completed development and the future cost of development. In some cases the developer has some degree of control over the possible variation in the variables, as with the cost of construction through the choice of specification. However, other variables, such as the sale price of the final product, are totally dependent upon the vagaries of the market at the completion date. To try to address the risk of a different outcome to the one expected (modelled) the developer will often carry out a sensitivity analysis on the development. However, traditional sensitivity analysis has generally only looked at the best and worst scenarios and has focused on the anticipated or expected outcomes. This does not take into account uncertainty and the range of outcomes that can happen. A fuller analysis should include examination of the uncertainties in each of the components of the appraisal and account for the appropriate distributions of the variables. Similarly, as many of the variables in the model are not independent, the variables need to be correlated. This requires a standardised approach and we suggest that the use of a generic forecasting software package, in this case Crystal Ball, allows the analyst to work with an existing development appraisal model set up in Excel (or other spreadsheet) and to work with a predetermined set of probability distributions. Without a full knowledge of risk, developers are unable to determine the anticipated level of return that should be sought to compensate for the risk. This model allows the user a better understanding of the possible outcomes for the development. Ultimately the final decision will be made relative to current expectations and current business constraints, but by assessing the upside and downside risks more appropriately, the decision maker should be better placed to make a more informed and âbetterâ
The scale, scope and impact of alternative care for OVC in developing countries
This item is archived in the repository for materials published for the USAID supported Orphans and Vulnerable Children Comprehensive Action Research Project (OVC-CARE) at the Boston University Center for Global Health and Development.Over 145 million children worldwide have lost one or both parents due to various causes, 15 million of these are due to AIDS (1,2); and many more have been made vulnerable due to other causes. The global community has responded by putting in place various care arrangements for these children. However, the scale, scope and impact of these alternative care approaches have not been well summarized. The aim of this literature review is to synthesize and analyze available data on alternative care approaches and the impact of these placements on the lives of orphans and other vulnerable children. Both the short-term and long term wellbeing of a child depends a lot on where they live and the care they receive in those settings.The USAID | Project SEARCH, Orphans and Vulnerable Children Comprehensive Action Research (OVC-CARE) Task Order, is funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development under Contract No. GHH-I-00-07-00023-00, beginning August 1, 2008. OVC-CARE Task Order is implemented by Boston University. The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the funding agency
Tax reforms - taxes without tax laws
This paper suggests a new tax system without tax laws, tax collection departments and tax enforcement agencies.This new tax system will be without present systemâs all Direct and Indirect taxes accompanied by tax laws, tax exemptions, multiple tax collection departments for States and Centre, compulsory accounting, auditing and tax returns to relieve 7 billion people of the world from the cobweb of ambiguous and complex tax structures, plethora of tax laws, mandatory and cumbersome accounting, auditing, tax returns and consequent quagmire of all tax related cases. Taxation, tax collection, tax enforcement, tax compliance, allocation of revenues to various ministries or departments, distribution of subsidies, implementation of welfare schemes and money supply into the economy are unified and integrated in the banking system. There will be no tax collection expenditure for the Governments and no tax compliance costs for the people either. Citizens need not maintain separate account books and submit tax returns annually for paying either Direct taxes on personal incomes or Indirect taxes while running business or industry. Yet, this new tax system envisages 20 to 30 % more revenues from single tax called "TOP Taxâ - than presently accruing revenues from multiple taxes collected by different tax collection departments/agencie
Legality and venture governance around the world
We analyze governance with a dataset on investments of venture capitalists in 3848 portfolio firms in 39 countries from North and South America, Europe and Asia spanning 1971-2003. We find that cross-country differences in Legality have a significant impact on the governance structure of investments in the VC industry: better laws facilitate faster deal screening and deal origination, a higher probability of syndication and a lower probability of potentially harmful co-investment, and facilitate board representation of the investor. We also show better laws reduce the probability that the investor requires periodic cash flows prior to exit, which is in conjunction with an increased probability of investment in high-tech companies. Klassifikation: G24, G31, G32
Feasibility Study: Social Protection in South Central Somalia
In recent years, there has been a growing recognition by policy makers and the international development community that longer-term social protection programming has the potential to reduce poverty and inequality and serve as a foundation upon which, viable livelihoods can be built. In many countries, specially those that are frequently affected by climatic and conflict hazards, this has led to calls for a shift in approach away from interventions thatsimply address the symptoms of household vulnerability towards those which deal with the causes. For more than two decades Somalia has lurched from one humanitarian crisis to another. This debate around the potential of social protection is therefore particularly acute, as years of humanitarian programming seem to have had little impact on increasing household resilience to shocks. Furthermore, the country still ranks 165 out of the 170 countries included in the UN's Human Development Index, and number one on the US Fund for Peace 'Failed State Index'.A consortium of agencies working in Somalia commissioned this study: Adeso, ACF, DRC and Save the Children. The study is intended to further the discussion on the rationale and practicalities of social protection in South Central Somalia, and to serve as a starting point for the debate around moving away from short-term responses towards longer-term social protection interventions by these agencies, and others.The report comprises six parts: Part 1 describes the political economy in South Central Somalia and highlights some key challengesfor humanitarian actors; Part 2 defines the general concept of social protection and looks at the global evidence of the impact of social protection; Part 3 looks at social protection programs in African countries (particularly those in the Somalia region), and also in fragile states; Part 4 looks at current social protection mechanisms in South Central Somalia; Part 5 describes the actions that are currently needed before humanitarian programming can become predictable, and Part 6 summarizes the way forward, including recommendations and the conclusions from the study
Financial health of the higher education sector : including overview of 2009-10 annual accountability returns
"This report provides an overview on the current and future financial health of the higher education sector in England. It also gives an overview of the outcomes of the review of annual accountability returns for 2009-10" - front cover
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