Novelty and Collective Attention

The subject of collective attention is central to an information age where millions of people are inundated with daily messages. It is thus of interest to understand how attention to novel items propagates and eventually fades among large populations. We have analyzed the dynamics of collective attention among one million users of an interactive website -- \texttt{digg.com} -- devoted to thousands of novel news stories. The observations can be described by a dynamical model characterized by a single novelty factor. Our measurements indicate that novelty within groups decays with a stretched-exponential law, suggesting the existence of a natural time scale over which attention fades

Collective action for small-scale producers of agricultural biodiversity products:

"The role of well-functioning markets for development is now widely recognized, however the challenge remains to make these markets benefit the poor and the environment. Increasing attention is being given to the potential role markets can play for agrobiodiversity conservation through product diversification and increasing competitiveness in niche and novelty markets. Bioversity International has undertaken several studies that explore the use of market-based approaches to on-farm agrobiodiversity management and livelihood improvement. Case studies have been developed on a range of species, varieties and derived products, including underutilized species and commodities in several regions of the world. This paper explores how the theory of collective action can provide a more synthetic understanding of how market chains operate and how changes in the market chain and market institutions can permit a more equitable distribution of welfare benefits. The case studies illustrate the need for improved trust, a mutual understanding of each actor's involvement and the need for an agreed process of collective action that involves a high level of community participation to achieve an improved market chain organization benefiting the poor. The cases differ in their degree of collective action, the level of market organization and the ways in which handling, processing, and innovative marketing add value to the agrobiodiversity products. Comparative analysis of these cases identified a range of options and situations in which market development can support agrobiodiversity conservation and livelihoods. Bringing together these experiences will also help to identify the situations in which a collective approach can maximize the capturing of market benefits for smallholders. Trade-offs between income generation, livelihood security, and agrobiodiversity conservation should be further examined in order to find solutions that support sustainable development of poor communities that manage agricultural biodiversity." authors' abstractAgricultural biodiversity, Market chain, Market access, Livelihoods, Collective action, Small farmers, Biodiversity,

Attention and Visibility in an Information Rich World

As the rate of content production grows, we must make a staggering number of daily decisions about what information is worth acting on. For any flourishing online social media system, users can barely keep up with the new content shared by friends. How does the user-interface design help or hinder users' ability to find interesting content? We analyze the choices people make about which information to propagate on the social media sites Twitter and Digg. We observe regularities in behavior which can be attributed directly to cognitive limitations of humans, resulting from the different visibility policies of each site. We quantify how people divide their limited attention among competing sources of information, and we show how the user-interface design can mediate information spread.Comment: Appearing in 2nd International Workshop on Social Multimedia Research 2013, in conjunction with IEEE International Conference on Multimedia & Expo (ICME 2013

Modeling the Rise in Internet-based Petitions

Contemporary collective action, much of which involves social media and other Internet-based platforms, leaves a digital imprint which may be harvested to better understand the dynamics of mobilization. Petition signing is an example of collective action which has gained in popularity with rising use of social media and provides such data for the whole population of petition signatories for a given platform. This paper tracks the growth curves of all 20,000 petitions to the UK government over 18 months, analyzing the rate of growth and outreach mechanism. Previous research has suggested the importance of the first day to the ultimate success of a petition, but has not examined early growth within that day, made possible here through hourly resolution in the data. The analysis shows that the vast majority of petitions do not achieve any measure of success; over 99 percent fail to get the 10,000 signatures required for an official response and only 0.1 percent attain the 100,000 required for a parliamentary debate. We analyze the data through a multiplicative process model framework to explain the heterogeneous growth of signatures at the population level. We define and measure an average outreach factor for petitions and show that it decays very fast (reducing to 0.1% after 10 hours). After 24 hours, a petition's fate is virtually set. The findings seem to challenge conventional analyses of collective action from economics and political science, where the production function has been assumed to follow an S-shaped curve.Comment: Submitted to EPJ Data Scienc

Emergence: Key physical issues for deeper philosophical inquiries

A sketch of three senses of emergence and a suggestive view on the emergence of time and the direction of time is presented. After trying to identify which issues philosophers interested in emergent phenomena in physics view as important I make several observations pertaining to the concepts, methodology and mechanisms required to understand emergence and describe a platform for its investigation. I then identify some key physical issues which I feel need be better appreciated by the philosophers in this pursuit. I end with some comments on one of these issues, that of coarse-graining and persistent structures.Comment: 16 pages. Invited Talk at the Heinz von Foerster Centenary International Conference on Self-Organization and Emergence: Emergent Quantum Mechanics (EmerQuM11). Nov. 10-13, 2011, Vienna, Austria. Proceedings to appear in J. Phys. (Conf. Series

Emergence: Key physical issues for deeper philosophical inquiries

A sketch of three senses of emergence and a suggestive view on the emergence of time and the direction of time is presented. After trying to identify which issues philosophers interested in emergent phenomena in physics view as important I make several observations pertaining to the concepts, methodology and mechanisms required to understand emergence and describe a platform for its investigation. I then identify some key physical issues which I feel need be better appreciated by the philosophers in this pursuit. I end with some comments on one of these issues, that of coarse-graining and persistent structures.Comment: 16 pages. Invited Talk at the Heinz von Foerster Centenary International Conference on Self-Organization and Emergence: Emergent Quantum Mechanics (EmerQuM11). Nov. 10-13, 2011, Vienna, Austria. Proceedings to appear in J. Phys. (Conf. Series

Timescales of Massive Human Entrainment

The past two decades have seen an upsurge of interest in the collective behaviors of complex systems composed of many agents entrained to each other and to external events. In this paper, we extend concepts of entrainment to the dynamics of human collective attention. We conducted a detailed investigation of the unfolding of human entrainment - as expressed by the content and patterns of hundreds of thousands of messages on Twitter - during the 2012 US presidential debates. By time locking these data sources, we quantify the impact of the unfolding debate on human attention. We show that collective social behavior covaries second-by-second to the interactional dynamics of the debates: A candidate speaking induces rapid increases in mentions of his name on social media and decreases in mentions of the other candidate. Moreover, interruptions by an interlocutor increase the attention received. We also highlight a distinct time scale for the impact of salient moments in the debate: Mentions in social media start within 5-10 seconds after the moment; peak at approximately one minute; and slowly decay in a consistent fashion across well-known events during the debates. Finally, we show that public attention after an initial burst slowly decays through the course of the debates. Thus we demonstrate that large-scale human entrainment may hold across a number of distinct scales, in an exquisitely time-locked fashion. The methods and results pave the way for careful study of the dynamics and mechanisms of large-scale human entrainment.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figures, 6 tables, 4 supplementary figures. 2nd version revised according to peer reviewers' comments: more detailed explanation of the methods, and grounding of the hypothese

A Simple Generative Model of Collective Online Behaviour

Human activities increasingly take place in online environments, providing novel opportunities for relating individual behaviours to population-level outcomes. In this paper, we introduce a simple generative model for the collective behaviour of millions of social networking site users who are deciding between different software applications. Our model incorporates two distinct components: one is associated with recent decisions of users, and the other reflects the cumulative popularity of each application. Importantly, although various combinations of the two mechanisms yield long-time behaviour that is consistent with data, the only models that reproduce the observed temporal dynamics are those that strongly emphasize the recent popularity of applications over their cumulative popularity. This demonstrates---even when using purely observational data without experimental design---that temporal data-driven modelling can effectively distinguish between competing microscopic mechanisms, allowing us to uncover new aspects of collective online behaviour.Comment: Updated, with new figures and Supplementary Informatio