9,117 research outputs found

    Modelling residential water consumers’ behaviors by feature selection and feature weighting

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    Identifying the most relevant determinants of water consuming or saving behaviors at the household level is key to building mathematical models that predict urban water demand variability in space and time and to explore the effects of different Water Demand Management Strategies for the residential sector. This work contributes a novel approach based on feature selection and feature weighting to model the single-user consumption behavior at the household level. A two-step procedure consisting of the extraction of the most relevant determinants of users’ consumption and the identification of a predictive model of water consumers’ profile is proposed and tested on a real case study. Results show the effectiveness of the proposed method in capturing the influence of candidate determinants on residential water consumption, as well as in attaining sufficiently accurate predictions of users’ consumption profiles, which constitutes essential information to support residential water demand management

    Optimization approaches for exploiting the load flexibility of electric heating devices in smart grids

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    Energy systems all over the world are undergoing a fundamental transition to tackle climate change and other environmental challenges. The share of electricity generated by renewable energy sources has been steadily increasing. In order to cope with the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources, like photovoltaic systems and wind turbines, the electrical demand has to be adjusted to their power generation. To this end, flexible electrical loads are necessary. Moreover, optimization approaches and advanced information and communication technology can help to transform the traditional electricity grid into a smart grid. To shift the electricity consumption in time, electric heating devices, such as heat pumps or electric water heaters, provide significant flexibility. In order to exploit this flexibility, optimization approaches for controlling flexible devices are essential. Most studies in the literature use centralized optimization or uncoordinated decentralized optimization. Centralized optimization has crucial drawbacks regarding computational complexity, privacy, and robustness, but uncoordinated decentralized optimization leads to suboptimal results. In this thesis, coordinated decentralized and hybrid optimization approaches with low computational requirements are developed for exploiting the flexibility of electric heating devices. An essential feature of all developed methods is that they preserve the privacy of the residents. This cumulative thesis comprises four papers that introduce different types of optimization approaches. In Paper A, rule-based heuristic control algorithms for modulating electric heating devices are developed that minimize the heating costs of a residential area. Moreover, control algorithms for minimizing surplus energy that otherwise could be curtailed are introduced. They increase the self-consumption rate of locally generated electricity from photovoltaics. The heuristic control algorithms use a privacy-preserving control and communication architecture that combines centralized and decentralized control approaches. Compared to a conventional control strategy, the results of simulations show cost reductions of between 4.1% and 13.3% and reductions of between 38.3% and 52.6% regarding the surplus energy. Paper B introduces two novel coordinating decentralized optimization approaches for scheduling-based optimization. A comparison with different decentralized optimization approaches from the literature shows that the developed methods, on average, lead to 10% less surplus energy. Further, an optimization procedure is defined that generates a diverse solution pool for the problem of maximizing the self-consumption rate of locally generated renewable energy. This solution pool is needed for the coordination mechanisms of several decentralized optimization approaches. Combining the decentralized optimization approaches with the defined procedure to generate diverse solution pools, on average, leads to 100 kWh (16.5%) less surplus energy per day for a simulated residential area with 90 buildings. In Paper C, another decentralized optimization approach that aims to minimize surplus energy and reduce the peak load in a local grid is developed. Moreover, two methods that distribute a central wind power profile to the different buildings of a residential area are introduced. Compared to the approaches from the literature, the novel decentralized optimization approach leads to improvements of between 0.8% and 13.3% regarding the surplus energy and the peak load. Paper D introduces uncertainty handling control algorithms for modulating electricheating devices. The algorithms can help centralized and decentralized scheduling-based optimization approaches to react to erroneous predictions of demand and generation. The analysis shows that the developed methods avoid violations of the residents\u27 comfort limits and increase the self-consumption rate of electricity generated by photovoltaic systems. All introduced optimization approaches yield a good trade-off between runtime and the quality of the results. Further, they respect the privacy of residents, lead to better utilization of renewable energy, and stabilize the grid. Hence, the developed optimization approaches can help future energy systems to cope with the high share of intermittent renewable energy sources

    A novel approach for electric load curve holistic modelling and simulation

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    International audienceThis paper presents a novel approach of an electric load curve simulator using a set of grey box models that results to an efficient trade-off between complete and complex physical models and fast simplified statistical models. The input parameters are macroscopic data coming from large databases such as national census, DSO’s client information and meteorological data such as temperature or irradiation data. The problem of matching between the different databases is investigated to assess comparable load curves. Validation is performed using load measurements at the medium voltage level. Once the model is calibrated it can be turned into a good prediction tool useful for planning studies since it permits easily to incorporate the evolution of usages, the characteristics of consumption devices, as well as the evolution of the building’s characteristics

    Artificial intelligence for modeling real estate price using call detail records and hybrid machine learning approach

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    Advancement of accurate models for predicting real estate price is of utmost importance for urban development and several critical economic functions. Due to the significant uncertainties and dynamic variables, modeling real estate has been studied as complex systems. In this study, a novel machine learning method is proposed to tackle real estate modeling complexity. Call detail records (CDR) provides excellent opportunities for in-depth investigation of the mobility characterization. This study explores the CDR potential for predicting the real estate price with the aid of artificial intelligence (AI). Several essential mobility entropy factors, including dweller entropy, dweller gyration, workers’ entropy, worker gyration, dwellers’ work distance, and workers’ home distance, are used as input variables. The prediction model is developed using the machine learning method of multi-layered perceptron (MLP) trained with the evolutionary algorithm of particle swarm optimization (PSO). Model performance is evaluated using mean square error (MSE), sustainability index (SI), and Willmott’s index (WI). The proposed model showed promising results revealing that the workers’ entropy and the dwellers’ work distances directly influence the real estate price. However, the dweller gyration, dweller entropy, workers’ gyration, and the workers’ home had a minimum effect on the price. Furthermore, it is shown that the flow of activities and entropy of mobility are often associated with the regions with lower real estate prices
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