Novel Multidimensional Models of Opinion Dynamics in Social Networks

Unlike many complex networks studied in the literature, social networks rarely exhibit unanimous behavior, or consensus. This requires a development of mathematical models that are sufficiently simple to be examined and capture, at the same time, the complex behavior of real social groups, where opinions and actions related to them may form clusters of different size. One such model, proposed by Friedkin and Johnsen, extends the idea of conventional consensus algorithm (also referred to as the iterative opinion pooling) to take into account the actors' prejudices, caused by some exogenous factors and leading to disagreement in the final opinions. In this paper, we offer a novel multidimensional extension, describing the evolution of the agents' opinions on several topics. Unlike the existing models, these topics are interdependent, and hence the opinions being formed on these topics are also mutually dependent. We rigorous examine stability properties of the proposed model, in particular, convergence of the agents' opinions. Although our model assumes synchronous communication among the agents, we show that the same final opinions may be reached "on average" via asynchronous gossip-based protocols.Comment: Accepted by IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control (to be published in May 2017

Reconciling long-term cultural diversity and short-term collective social behavior

An outstanding open problem is whether collective social phenomena occurring over short timescales can systematically reduce cultural heterogeneity in the long run, and whether offline and online human interactions contribute differently to the process. Theoretical models suggest that short-term collective behavior and long-term cultural diversity are mutually excluding, since they require very different levels of social influence. The latter jointly depends on two factors: the topology of the underlying social network and the overlap between individuals in multidimensional cultural space. However, while the empirical properties of social networks are well understood, little is known about the large-scale organization of real societies in cultural space, so that random input specifications are necessarily used in models. Here we use a large dataset to perform a high-dimensional analysis of the scientific beliefs of thousands of Europeans. We find that inter-opinion correlations determine a nontrivial ultrametric hierarchy of individuals in cultural space, a result unaccessible to one-dimensional analyses and in striking contrast with random assumptions. When empirical data are used as inputs in models, we find that ultrametricity has strong and counterintuitive effects, especially in the extreme case of long-range online-like interactions bypassing social ties. On short time-scales, it strongly facilitates a symmetry-breaking phase transition triggering coordinated social behavior. On long time-scales, it severely suppresses cultural convergence by restricting it within disjoint groups. We therefore find that, remarkably, the empirical distribution of individuals in cultural space appears to optimize the coexistence of short-term collective behavior and long-term cultural diversity, which can be realized simultaneously for the same moderate level of mutual influence

Mathematical Structures in Group Decision-Making on Resource Allocation Distributions.

Optimal decisions on the distribution of finite resources are explicitly structured by mathematical models that specify relevant variables, constraints, and objectives. Here we report analysis and evidence that implicit mathematical structures are also involved in group decision-making on resource allocation distributions under conditions of uncertainty that disallow formal optimization. A group's array of initial distribution preferences automatically sets up a geometric decision space of alternative resource distributions. Weighted averaging mechanisms of interpersonal influence reduce the heterogeneity of the group's initial preferences on a suitable distribution. A model of opinion formation based on weighted averaging predicts a distribution that is a feasible point in the group's implicit initial decision space

Learning and Forecasting Opinion Dynamics in Social Networks

Social media and social networking sites have become a global pinboard for exposition and discussion of news, topics, and ideas, where social media users often update their opinions about a particular topic by learning from the opinions shared by their friends. In this context, can we learn a data-driven model of opinion dynamics that is able to accurately forecast opinions from users? In this paper, we introduce SLANT, a probabilistic modeling framework of opinion dynamics, which represents users opinions over time by means of marked jump diffusion stochastic differential equations, and allows for efficient model simulation and parameter estimation from historical fine grained event data. We then leverage our framework to derive a set of efficient predictive formulas for opinion forecasting and identify conditions under which opinions converge to a steady state. Experiments on data gathered from Twitter show that our model provides a good fit to the data and our formulas achieve more accurate forecasting than alternatives

Evolution of Social Power for Opinion Dynamics Networks

This article studies the evolution of opinions and interpersonal influence structures in a group of agents as they discuss a sequence of issues, each of which follows an opinion dynamics model. In this work, we propose a general opinion dynamics model and an evolution of interpersonal influence structures based on the model of reflected appraisals proposed by Friedkin. Our contributions can be summarized as follows: (i) we introduce a model of opinion dynamics and evolution of interpersonal influence structures between issues viewed as a best response cost minimization to the neighbor's actions, (ii) we show that DeGroot's and Friedkin-Johnsen's models of opinion dynamics and their evolution of interpersonal influence structures are particular cases of our proposed model, and (iii) we prove the existence of an equilibrium. This work is a step towards providing a solid formulation of the evolution of opinions and interpersonal influence structures over a sequence of issues

Multi-choice opinion dynamics model based on Latane theory

In this paper Nowak--Szamrej-Latan\'e model is reconsidered. This computerised model of opinion formation bases on Latan\'e theory of social impact. We modify this model to allow for multi (more than two) opinions. With computer simulations we show that in the modified model the signatures of order/disorder phase transition are still observed. The transition may be observed in the average fraction of actors sharing the $i$-th opinion, its variation and also average number of clusters of actors with the same opinion and the average size of the largest cluster of actors sharing the same opinion. Also an influence of model control parameters on simulation results is shortly reviewed. For a homogeneous society with identical actors' supportiveness and persuasiveness the critical social temperature $T_C$ decreases with an increase of available opinions $K$ from $T_C=6.1$ ($K=2$) via 4.7, 4.1 to $T_C=3.6$ for $K=3$, 4, 5, respectively.Comment: 12 page