Motivational Ratings

Performance evaluation (\rating") systems not only provide information to users but also motivate the rated worker. This paper solves for the optimal(effort-maximizing) rating within the standard career concerns framework. We prove that this rating is a linear function of past observations. The rating, however, is not a Markov process, but rather the sum of two Markov processes. We show how it combines information of different types and vintages. An increase in effort may adversely affect some (but not all) future ratings

Methodology and Software for Interactive Decision Support

These Proceedings report the scientific results of an International Workshop on "Methodology and Software for Interactive Decision Support" organized jointly by the System and Decision Sciences Program of IIASA and The National Committee for Applied Systems Analysis and Management in Bulgaria. Several other Bulgarian institutions sponsored the workshop -- The Committee for Science to the Council of Ministers, The State Committee for Research and Technology and The Bulgarian Industrial Association. The workshop was held in Albena, on the Black Sea Coast. In the first section, "Theory and Algorithms for Multiple Criteria Optimization," new theoretical developments in multiple criteria optimization are presented. In the second section, "Theory, Methodology and Software for Decision Support Systems," the principles of building decision support systems are presented as well as software tools constituting the building components of such systems. Moreover, several papers are devoted to the general methodology of building such systems or present experimental design of systems supporting certain class of decision problems. The third section addresses issues of "Applications of Decision Support Systems and Computer Implementations of Decision Support Systems." Another part of this section has a special character. Beside theoretical and methodological papers, several practical implementations of software for decision support have been presented during the workshop. These software packages varied from very experimental and illustrative implementations of some theoretical concept to well developed and documented systems being currently commercially distributed and used for solving practical problems

Operational Decision Making under Uncertainty: Inferential, Sequential, and Adversarial Approaches

Modern security threats are characterized by a stochastic, dynamic, partially observable, and ambiguous operational environment. This dissertation addresses such complex security threats using operations research techniques for decision making under uncertainty in operations planning, analysis, and assessment. First, this research develops a new method for robust queue inference with partially observable, stochastic arrival and departure times, motivated by cybersecurity and terrorism applications. In the dynamic setting, this work develops a new variant of Markov decision processes and an algorithm for robust information collection in dynamic, partially observable and ambiguous environments, with an application to a cybersecurity detection problem. In the adversarial setting, this work presents a new application of counterfactual regret minimization and robust optimization to a multi-domain cyber and air defense problem in a partially observable environment

Antecipação na tomada de decisão com múltiplos critérios sob incerteza

Orientador: Fernando José Von ZubenTese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Elétrica e de ComputaçãoResumo: A presença de incerteza em resultados futuros pode levar a indecisões em processos de escolha, especialmente ao elicitar as importâncias relativas de múltiplos critérios de decisão e de desempenhos de curto vs. longo prazo. Algumas decisões, no entanto, devem ser tomadas sob informação incompleta, o que pode resultar em ações precipitadas com consequências imprevisíveis. Quando uma solução deve ser selecionada sob vários pontos de vista conflitantes para operar em ambientes ruidosos e variantes no tempo, implementar alternativas provisórias flexíveis pode ser fundamental para contornar a falta de informação completa, mantendo opções futuras em aberto. A engenharia antecipatória pode então ser considerada como a estratégia de conceber soluções flexíveis as quais permitem aos tomadores de decisão responder de forma robusta a cenários imprevisíveis. Essa estratégia pode, assim, mitigar os riscos de, sem intenção, se comprometer fortemente a alternativas incertas, ao mesmo tempo em que aumenta a adaptabilidade às mudanças futuras. Nesta tese, os papéis da antecipação e da flexibilidade na automação de processos de tomada de decisão sequencial com múltiplos critérios sob incerteza é investigado. O dilema de atribuir importâncias relativas aos critérios de decisão e a recompensas imediatas sob informação incompleta é então tratado pela antecipação autônoma de decisões flexíveis capazes de preservar ao máximo a diversidade de escolhas futuras. Uma metodologia de aprendizagem antecipatória on-line é então proposta para melhorar a variedade e qualidade dos conjuntos futuros de soluções de trade-off. Esse objetivo é alcançado por meio da previsão de conjuntos de máximo hipervolume esperado, para a qual as capacidades de antecipação de metaheurísticas multi-objetivo são incrementadas com rastreamento bayesiano em ambos os espaços de busca e dos objetivos. A metodologia foi aplicada para a obtenção de decisões de investimento, as quais levaram a melhoras significativas do hipervolume futuro de conjuntos de carteiras financeiras de trade-off avaliadas com dados de ações fora da amostra de treino, quando comparada a uma estratégia míope. Além disso, a tomada de decisões flexíveis para o rebalanceamento de carteiras foi confirmada como uma estratégia significativamente melhor do que a de escolher aleatoriamente uma decisão de investimento a partir da fronteira estocástica eficiente evoluída, em todos os mercados artificiais e reais testados. Finalmente, os resultados sugerem que a antecipação de opções flexíveis levou a composições de carteiras que se mostraram significativamente correlacionadas com as melhorias observadas no hipervolume futuro esperado, avaliado com dados fora das amostras de treinoAbstract: The presence of uncertainty in future outcomes can lead to indecision in choice processes, especially when eliciting the relative importances of multiple decision criteria and of long-term vs. near-term performance. Some decisions, however, must be taken under incomplete information, what may result in precipitated actions with unforeseen consequences. When a solution must be selected under multiple conflicting views for operating in time-varying and noisy environments, implementing flexible provisional alternatives can be critical to circumvent the lack of complete information by keeping future options open. Anticipatory engineering can be then regarded as the strategy of designing flexible solutions that enable decision makers to respond robustly to unpredictable scenarios. This strategy can thus mitigate the risks of strong unintended commitments to uncertain alternatives, while increasing adaptability to future changes. In this thesis, the roles of anticipation and of flexibility on automating sequential multiple criteria decision-making processes under uncertainty are investigated. The dilemma of assigning relative importances to decision criteria and to immediate rewards under incomplete information is then handled by autonomously anticipating flexible decisions predicted to maximally preserve diversity of future choices. An online anticipatory learning methodology is then proposed for improving the range and quality of future trade-off solution sets. This goal is achieved by predicting maximal expected hypervolume sets, for which the anticipation capabilities of multi-objective metaheuristics are augmented with Bayesian tracking in both the objective and search spaces. The methodology has been applied for obtaining investment decisions that are shown to significantly improve the future hypervolume of trade-off financial portfolios for out-of-sample stock data, when compared to a myopic strategy. Moreover, implementing flexible portfolio rebalancing decisions was confirmed as a significantly better strategy than to randomly choosing an investment decision from the evolved stochastic efficient frontier in all tested artificial and real-world markets. Finally, the results suggest that anticipating flexible choices has lead to portfolio compositions that are significantly correlated with the observed improvements in out-of-sample future expected hypervolumeDoutoradoEngenharia de ComputaçãoDoutor em Engenharia Elétric

Modeling the fundamental characteristics and processes of the spacecraft functioning

The fundamental aspects of modeling of spacecraft characteristics by using computing means are considered. Particular attention is devoted to the design studies, the description of physical appearance of the spacecraft, and simulated modeling of spacecraft systems. The fundamental questions of organizing the on-the-ground spacecraft testing and the methods of mathematical modeling were presented

Towards an Information Theoretic Framework for Evolutionary Learning

The vital essence of evolutionary learning consists of information flows between the environment and the entities differentially surviving and reproducing therein. Gain or loss of information in individuals and populations due to evolutionary steps should be considered in evolutionary algorithm theory and practice. Information theory has rarely been applied to evolutionary computation - a lacuna that this dissertation addresses, with an emphasis on objectively and explicitly evaluating the ensemble models implicit in evolutionary learning. Information theoretic functionals can provide objective, justifiable, general, computable, commensurate measures of fitness and diversity. We identify information transmission channels implicit in evolutionary learning. We define information distance metrics and indices for ensembles. We extend Price\u27s Theorem to non-random mating, give it an effective fitness interpretation and decompose it to show the key factors influencing heritability and evolvability. We argue that heritability and evolvability of our information theoretic indicators are high. We illustrate use of our indices for reproductive and survival selection. We develop algorithms to estimate information theoretic quantities on mixed continuous and discrete data via the empirical copula and information dimension. We extend statistical resampling. We present experimental and real world application results: chaotic time series prediction; parity; complex continuous functions; industrial process control; and small sample social science data. We formalize conjectures regarding evolutionary learning and information geometry