12,506 research outputs found
Bayesian outlier detection in Capital Asset Pricing Model
We propose a novel Bayesian optimisation procedure for outlier detection in
the Capital Asset Pricing Model. We use a parametric product partition model to
robustly estimate the systematic risk of an asset. We assume that the returns
follow independent normal distributions and we impose a partition structure on
the parameters of interest. The partition structure imposed on the parameters
induces a corresponding clustering of the returns. We identify via an
optimisation procedure the partition that best separates standard observations
from the atypical ones. The methodology is illustrated with reference to a real
data set, for which we also provide a microeconomic interpretation of the
detected outliers
String and Membrane Gaussian Processes
In this paper we introduce a novel framework for making exact nonparametric
Bayesian inference on latent functions, that is particularly suitable for Big
Data tasks. Firstly, we introduce a class of stochastic processes we refer to
as string Gaussian processes (string GPs), which are not to be mistaken for
Gaussian processes operating on text. We construct string GPs so that their
finite-dimensional marginals exhibit suitable local conditional independence
structures, which allow for scalable, distributed, and flexible nonparametric
Bayesian inference, without resorting to approximations, and while ensuring
some mild global regularity constraints. Furthermore, string GP priors
naturally cope with heterogeneous input data, and the gradient of the learned
latent function is readily available for explanatory analysis. Secondly, we
provide some theoretical results relating our approach to the standard GP
paradigm. In particular, we prove that some string GPs are Gaussian processes,
which provides a complementary global perspective on our framework. Finally, we
derive a scalable and distributed MCMC scheme for supervised learning tasks
under string GP priors. The proposed MCMC scheme has computational time
complexity and memory requirement , where
is the data size and the dimension of the input space. We illustrate the
efficacy of the proposed approach on several synthetic and real-world datasets,
including a dataset with millions input points and attributes.Comment: To appear in the Journal of Machine Learning Research (JMLR), Volume
1
Generalized Species Sampling Priors with Latent Beta reinforcements
Many popular Bayesian nonparametric priors can be characterized in terms of
exchangeable species sampling sequences. However, in some applications,
exchangeability may not be appropriate. We introduce a {novel and
probabilistically coherent family of non-exchangeable species sampling
sequences characterized by a tractable predictive probability function with
weights driven by a sequence of independent Beta random variables. We compare
their theoretical clustering properties with those of the Dirichlet Process and
the two parameters Poisson-Dirichlet process. The proposed construction
provides a complete characterization of the joint process, differently from
existing work. We then propose the use of such process as prior distribution in
a hierarchical Bayes modeling framework, and we describe a Markov Chain Monte
Carlo sampler for posterior inference. We evaluate the performance of the prior
and the robustness of the resulting inference in a simulation study, providing
a comparison with popular Dirichlet Processes mixtures and Hidden Markov
Models. Finally, we develop an application to the detection of chromosomal
aberrations in breast cancer by leveraging array CGH data.Comment: For correspondence purposes, Edoardo M. Airoldi's email is
[email protected]; Federico Bassetti's email is
[email protected]; Michele Guindani's email is
[email protected] ; Fabrizo Leisen's email is
[email protected]. To appear in the Journal of the American
Statistical Associatio
Local Exchangeability
Exchangeability---in which the distribution of an infinite sequence is
invariant to reorderings of its elements---implies the existence of a simple
conditional independence structure that may be leveraged in the design of
probabilistic models, efficient inference algorithms, and randomization-based
testing procedures. In practice, however, this assumption is too strong an
idealization; the distribution typically fails to be exactly invariant to
permutations and de Finetti's representation theory does not apply. Thus there
is the need for a distributional assumption that is both weak enough to hold in
practice, and strong enough to guarantee a useful underlying representation. We
introduce a relaxed notion of local exchangeability---where swapping data
associated with nearby covariates causes a bounded change in the distribution.
We prove that locally exchangeable processes correspond to independent
observations from an underlying measure-valued stochastic process. We thereby
show that de Finetti's theorem is robust to perturbation and provide further
justification for the Bayesian modelling approach. Using this probabilistic
result, we develop three novel statistical procedures for (1) estimating the
underlying process via local empirical measures, (2) testing via local
randomization, and (3) estimating the canonical premetric of local
exchangeability. These three procedures extend the applicability of previous
exchangeability-based methods without sacrificing rigorous statistical
guarantees. The paper concludes with examples of popular statistical models
that exhibit local exchangeability
Identifiability of parameters in latent structure models with many observed variables
While hidden class models of various types arise in many statistical
applications, it is often difficult to establish the identifiability of their
parameters. Focusing on models in which there is some structure of independence
of some of the observed variables conditioned on hidden ones, we demonstrate a
general approach for establishing identifiability utilizing algebraic
arguments. A theorem of J. Kruskal for a simple latent-class model with finite
state space lies at the core of our results, though we apply it to a diverse
set of models. These include mixtures of both finite and nonparametric product
distributions, hidden Markov models and random graph mixture models, and lead
to a number of new results and improvements to old ones. In the parametric
setting, this approach indicates that for such models, the classical definition
of identifiability is typically too strong. Instead generic identifiability
holds, which implies that the set of nonidentifiable parameters has measure
zero, so that parameter inference is still meaningful. In particular, this
sheds light on the properties of finite mixtures of Bernoulli products, which
have been used for decades despite being known to have nonidentifiable
parameters. In the nonparametric setting, we again obtain identifiability only
when certain restrictions are placed on the distributions that are mixed, but
we explicitly describe the conditions.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOS689 the Annals of
Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical
Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
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