Components of multifractality in the Central England Temperature anomaly series

We study the multifractal nature of the Central England Temperature (CET) anomaly, a time series that spans more than 200 years. The series is analyzed as a complete data set and considering a sliding window of 11 years. In both cases, we quantify the broadness of the multifractal spectrum as well as its components defined by the deviations from the Gaussian distribution and the influence of the dependence between measurements. The results show that the chief contribution to the multifractal structure comes from the dynamical dependencies, mainly the weak ones, followed by a residual contribution of the deviations from Gaussianity. However, using the sliding window, we verify that the spikes in the non-Gaussian contribution occur at very close dates associated with climate changes determined in previous works by component analysis methods. Moreover, the strong non-Gaussian contribution found in the multifractal measures from the 1960s onwards is in agreement with global results very recently proposed in the literature.Comment: 21 pages, 10 figure

Nonlinear system modeling based on constrained Volterra series estimates

A simple nonlinear system modeling algorithm designed to work with limited \emph{a priori }knowledge and short data records, is examined. It creates an empirical Volterra series-based model of a system using an $l_{q}$-constrained least squares algorithm with $q\geq 1$. If the system $m\left( \cdot \right)$ is a continuous and bounded map with a finite memory no longer than some known $\tau$, then (for a $D$ parameter model and for a number of measurements $N$) the difference between the resulting model of the system and the best possible theoretical one is guaranteed to be of order $\sqrt{N^{-1}\ln D}$, even for $D\geq N$. The performance of models obtained for $q=1,1.5$ and $2$ is tested on the Wiener-Hammerstein benchmark system. The results suggest that the models obtained for $q>1$ are better suited to characterize the nature of the system, while the sparse solutions obtained for $q=1$ yield smaller error values in terms of input-output behavior

Time-varying Autoregressive Modeling of Nonstationary Signals

Nonstationary signal modeling is a research topic of practical interest. In this thesis, we adopt a time-varying (TV) autoregressive (AR) model using the basis function (BF) parameter estimation method for nonstationary process identification and instantaneous frequency (IF) estimation. The current TVAR model in direct form (DF) with the blockwise least-squares and recursive weighted-least-squares BF methods perform equivalently well in signal modeling, but the large estimation error may cause temporary instabilities of the estimated model. To achieve convenient model stability monitoring and pole tracking, the TVAR model in cascade form (CF) was proposed through the parameterization in terms of TV poles (represented by second order section coefficients, Cartesian coordinates, Polar coordinates), where the time variation of each pole parameter is assumed to be the linear combination of BFs. The nonlinear system equations for the TVAR model in CF are solved iteratively using the Gauss-Newton algorithm. Using the CF, the model stability is easily controlled by constraining the estimated TV poles within the unit circle. The CF model shows similar performance trends to the DF model using the recursive BF method, and the TV pole representation in Cartesian coordinates outperforms all other representations. The individual frequency variation can be finely tracked using the CF model, when several frequency components are present in the signal. Simulations were carried on synthetic sinusoidal signals with different frequency variations for IF estimation. For the TVAR model in DF (blockwise), the basis dimension (BD) is an important factor on frequency estimation accuracy. For the TVAR model in DF (recursive) and CF (Cartesian), the influences of BD are negligible. The additive white noise in the observed signal degrades the estimation performance, and the the noise effects can be reduce by using higher model order. Experiments were carried on the real electromyography (EMG) data for frequency estimation in the analysis of muscle fatigue. The TVAR modeling methods show equivalent performance to the conventional Fourier transform method

Adaptive kernel canonical correlation analysis algorithms for nonparametric identification of Wiener and Hammerstein systems

This paper treats the identification of nonlinear systems that consist of a cascade of a linear channel and a nonlinearity, such as the well-known Wiener and Hammerstein systems. In particular, we follow a supervised identification approach that simultaneously identifies both parts of the nonlinear system. Given the correct restrictions on the identification problem, we show how kernel canonical correlation analysis (KCCA) emerges as the logical solution to this problem.We then extend the proposed identification algorithm to an adaptive version allowing to deal with time-varying systems. In order to avoid overfitting problems, we discuss and compare three possible regularization techniques for both the batch and the adaptive versions of the proposed algorithm. Simulations are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented algorithm