Determining the Mass of Kepler-78b With Nonparametric Gaussian Process Estimation

Kepler-78b is a transiting planet that is 1.2 times the radius of Earth and orbits a young, active K dwarf every 8 hours. The mass of Kepler-78b has been independently reported by two teams based on radial velocity measurements using the HIRES and HARPS-N spectrographs. Due to the active nature of the host star, a stellar activity model is required to distinguish and isolate the planetary signal in radial velocity data. Whereas previous studies tested parametric stellar activity models, we modeled this system using nonparametric Gaussian process (GP) regression. We produced a GP regression of relevant Kepler photometry. We then use the posterior parameter distribution for our photometric fit as a prior for our simultaneous GP + Keplerian orbit models of the radial velocity datasets. We tested three simple kernel functions for our GP regressions. Based on a Bayesian likelihood analysis, we selected a quasi-periodic kernel model with GP hyperparameters coupled between the two RV datasets, giving a Doppler amplitude of 1.86 $\pm$ 0.25 m s$^{-1}$ and supporting our belief that the correlated noise we are modeling is astrophysical. The corresponding mass of 1.87 $^{+0.27}_{-0.26}$ M$_{\oplus}$ is consistent with that measured in previous studies, and more robust due to our nonparametric signal estimation. Based on our mass and the radius measurement from transit photometry, Kepler-78b has a bulk density of 6.0$^{+1.9}_{-1.4}$ g cm$^{-3}$. We estimate that Kepler-78b is 32$\pm$26% iron using a two-component rock-iron model. This is consistent with an Earth-like composition, with uncertainty spanning Moon-like to Mercury-like compositions.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures, accepted to ApJ 6/16/201

A scale-space approach with wavelets to singularity estimation

This paper is concerned with the problem of determining the typical features of a curve when it is observed with noise. It has been shown that one can characterize the Lipschitz singularities of a signal by following the propagation across scales of the modulus maxima of its continuous wavelet transform. A nonparametric approach, based on appropriate thresholding of the empirical wavelet coefficients, is proposed to estimate the wavelet maxima of a signal observed with noise at various scales. In order to identify the singularities of the unknown signal, we introduce a new tool, "the structural intensity", that computes the "density" of the location of the modulus maxima of a wavelet representation along various scales. This approach is shown to be an effective technique for detecting the significant singularities of a signal corrupted by noise and for removing spurious estimates. The asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are studied and illustrated by simulations. An application to a real data set is also proposed

Classification of chirp signals using hierarchical bayesian learning and MCMC methods

This paper addresses the problem of classifying chirp signals using hierarchical Bayesian learning together with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Bayesian learning consists of estimating the distribution of the observed data conditional on each class from a set of training samples. Unfortunately, this estimation requires to evaluate intractable multidimensional integrals. This paper studies an original implementation of hierarchical Bayesian learning that estimates the class conditional probability densities using MCMC methods. The performance of this implementation is first studied via an academic example for which the class conditional densities are known. The problem of classifying chirp signals is then addressed by using a similar hierarchical Bayesian learning implementation based on a Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithm

Landmark-Based Registration of Curves via the Continuous Wavelet Transform

This paper is concerned with the problem of the alignment of multiple sets of curves. We analyze two real examples arising from the biomedical area for which we need to test whether there are any statistically significant differences between two subsets of subjects. To synchronize a set of curves, we propose a new nonparametric landmark-based registration method based on the alignment of the structural intensity of the zero-crossings of a wavelet transform. The structural intensity is a multiscale technique recently proposed by Bigot (2003, 2005) which highlights the main features of a signal observed with noise. We conduct a simulation study to compare our landmark-based registration approach with some existing methods for curve alignment. For the two real examples, we compare the registered curves with FANOVA techniques, and a detailed analysis of the warping functions is provided

Dynamic models in fMRI

Most statistical methods for assessing activated voxels in fMRI experiments are based on correlation or regression analysis. In this context the main assumptions are that the baseline can be described by a few known basis-functions or variables and that the effect of the stimulus, i.e. the activation, stays constant over time. As these assumptions are in many cases neither necessary nor correct, a new dynamic approach that does not depend on those suppositions will be presented. This allows for simultaneous nonparametric estimation of the baseline as well as the time-varying effect of stimulation. This method of estimating the stimulus related areas of the brain furthermore provides the possibility of an analysis of the temporal and spatial development of the activation within an fMRI-experiment