2,256 research outputs found
Fast detection of nonlinearity and nonstationarity in short and noisy time series
We introduce a statistical method to detect nonlinearity and nonstationarity
in time series, that works even for short sequences and in presence of noise.
The method has a discrimination power similar to that of the most advanced
estimators on the market, yet it depends only on one parameter, is easier to
implement and faster. Applications to real data sets reject the null hypothesis
of an underlying stationary linear stochastic process with a higher confidence
interval than the best known nonlinear discriminators up to date.Comment: 5 pages, 6 figure
Local linear regression with adaptive orthogonal fitting for the wind power application
Short-term forecasting of wind generation requires a model of the function for the conversion of me-teorological variables (mainly wind speed) to power production. Such a power curve is nonlinear and bounded, in addition to being nonstationary. Local linear regression is an appealing nonparametric ap-proach for power curve estimation, for which the model coefficients can be tracked with recursive Least Squares (LS) methods. This may lead to an inaccurate estimate of the true power curve, owing to the assumption that a noise component is present on the response variable axis only. Therefore, this assump-tion is relaxed here, by describing a local linear regression with orthogonal fit. Local linear coefficients are defined as those which minimize a weighted Total Least Squares (TLS) criterion. An adaptive es-timation method is introduced in order to accommodate nonstationarity. This has the additional benefit of lowering the computational costs of updating local coefficients every time new observations become available. The estimation method is based on tracking the left-most eigenvector of the augmented covari-ance matrix. A robustification of the estimation method is also proposed. Simulations on semi-artificial datasets (for which the true power curve is available) underline the properties of the proposed regression and related estimation methods. An important result is the significantly higher ability of local polynomia
Local Polynomial Fitting and Spatial Price Relationships: Price Transmission in the EU Markets for Pigmeat
We apply nonparametric methods to assess price transmission processes within the EU pig markets. We compare results derived from nonparametric regressions with those obtained using alternative nonlinear threshold models. Results show that nonparametric regressions support the parametric results. However, parametric techniques often suggest a higher degree of price transmission than that implied by threshold models.Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing,
Lagrangian Time Series Models for Ocean Surface Drifter Trajectories
This paper proposes stochastic models for the analysis of ocean surface
trajectories obtained from freely-drifting satellite-tracked instruments. The
proposed time series models are used to summarise large multivariate datasets
and infer important physical parameters of inertial oscillations and other
ocean processes. Nonstationary time series methods are employed to account for
the spatiotemporal variability of each trajectory. Because the datasets are
large, we construct computationally efficient methods through the use of
frequency-domain modelling and estimation, with the data expressed as
complex-valued time series. We detail how practical issues related to sampling
and model misspecification may be addressed using semi-parametric techniques
for time series, and we demonstrate the effectiveness of our stochastic models
through application to both real-world data and to numerical model output.Comment: 21 pages, 10 figure
Functional Regression
Functional data analysis (FDA) involves the analysis of data whose ideal
units of observation are functions defined on some continuous domain, and the
observed data consist of a sample of functions taken from some population,
sampled on a discrete grid. Ramsay and Silverman's 1997 textbook sparked the
development of this field, which has accelerated in the past 10 years to become
one of the fastest growing areas of statistics, fueled by the growing number of
applications yielding this type of data. One unique characteristic of FDA is
the need to combine information both across and within functions, which Ramsay
and Silverman called replication and regularization, respectively. This article
will focus on functional regression, the area of FDA that has received the most
attention in applications and methodological development. First will be an
introduction to basis functions, key building blocks for regularization in
functional regression methods, followed by an overview of functional regression
methods, split into three types: [1] functional predictor regression
(scalar-on-function), [2] functional response regression (function-on-scalar)
and [3] function-on-function regression. For each, the role of replication and
regularization will be discussed and the methodological development described
in a roughly chronological manner, at times deviating from the historical
timeline to group together similar methods. The primary focus is on modeling
and methodology, highlighting the modeling structures that have been developed
and the various regularization approaches employed. At the end is a brief
discussion describing potential areas of future development in this field
Modeling Non-Stationary Processes Through Dimension Expansion
In this paper, we propose a novel approach to modeling nonstationary spatial
fields. The proposed method works by expanding the geographic plane over which
these processes evolve into higher dimensional spaces, transforming and
clarifying complex patterns in the physical plane. By combining aspects of
multi-dimensional scaling, group lasso, and latent variables models, a
dimensionally sparse projection is found in which the originally nonstationary
field exhibits stationarity. Following a comparison with existing methods in a
simulated environment, dimension expansion is studied on a classic test-bed
data set historically used to study nonstationary models. Following this, we
explore the use of dimension expansion in modeling air pollution in the United
Kingdom, a process known to be strongly influenced by rural/urban effects,
amongst others, which gives rise to a nonstationary field
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