Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics

A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework.Comment: 36 pages, 5 figures. v2: Fixed typo in caption of figure 1. v3: Further typo fixes. v4: Revised in response to referee

Symbol Emergence in Robotics: A Survey

Humans can learn the use of language through physical interaction with their environment and semiotic communication with other people. It is very important to obtain a computational understanding of how humans can form a symbol system and obtain semiotic skills through their autonomous mental development. Recently, many studies have been conducted on the construction of robotic systems and machine-learning methods that can learn the use of language through embodied multimodal interaction with their environment and other systems. Understanding human social interactions and developing a robot that can smoothly communicate with human users in the long term, requires an understanding of the dynamics of symbol systems and is crucially important. The embodied cognition and social interaction of participants gradually change a symbol system in a constructive manner. In this paper, we introduce a field of research called symbol emergence in robotics (SER). SER is a constructive approach towards an emergent symbol system. The emergent symbol system is socially self-organized through both semiotic communications and physical interactions with autonomous cognitive developmental agents, i.e., humans and developmental robots. Specifically, we describe some state-of-art research topics concerning SER, e.g., multimodal categorization, word discovery, and a double articulation analysis, that enable a robot to obtain words and their embodied meanings from raw sensory--motor information, including visual information, haptic information, auditory information, and acoustic speech signals, in a totally unsupervised manner. Finally, we suggest future directions of research in SER.Comment: submitted to Advanced Robotic

Fuzzy sets in nonparametric Bayes regression

A simple Bayesian approach to nonparametric regression is described using fuzzy sets and membership functions. Membership functions are interpreted as likelihood functions for the unknown regression function, so that with the help of a reference prior they can be transformed to prior density functions. The unknown regression function is decomposed into wavelets and a hierarchical Bayesian approach is employed for making inferences on the resulting wavelet coefficients.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/074921708000000084 the IMS Collections (http://www.imstat.org/publications/imscollections.htm) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

A Noninformative Prior on a Space of Distribution Functions

In a given problem, the Bayesian statistical paradigm requires the specification of a prior distribution that quantifies relevant information about the unknowns of main interest external to the data. In cases where little such information is available, the problem under study may possess an invariance under a transformation group that encodes a lack of information, leading to a unique prior---this idea was explored at length by E.T. Jaynes. Previous successful examples have included location-scale invariance under linear transformation, multiplicative invariance of the rate at which events in a counting process are observed, and the derivation of the Haldane prior for a Bernoulli success probability. In this paper we show that this method can be extended, by generalizing Jaynes, in two ways: (1) to yield families of approximately invariant priors, and (2) to the infinite-dimensional setting, yielding families of priors on spaces of distribution functions. Our results can be used to describe conditions under which a particular Dirichlet Process posterior arises from an optimal Bayesian analysis, in the sense that invariances in the prior and likelihood lead to one and only one posterior distribution