On the inherent instability of international financial markets: Natural nonlinear interactions between stock and foreign exchange markets

We develop a novel financial market model in which the stock markets of two countries are linked via and with the foreign exchange market. To be precise, there are domestic and foreign speculators in each of the two stock markets which rely either on linear technical or linear fundamental trading strategies to determine their orders. Since foreign stock market speculators require foreign currency to conduct their trades, all three markets are connected. Our setup entails a natural nonlinearity which may cause persistent endogenous price dynamics. Moreover, we analytically show that market interactions can destabilize the model's fundamental steady state. --Stock prices,exchange rates,market stability,technical and fundamental analysis,nonlinear market interactions,endogenous dynamics

Volatility Transmission in Emerging European Foreign Exchange Markets

This paper studies the dynamics of volatility transmission between Central European currencies and euro/dollar foreign exchange using model-free estimates of daily exchange rate volatility based on intraday data. We formulate a flexible yet parsimonious parametric model in which the daily realized volatility of a given exchange rate depends both on its own lags as well as on the lagged realized volatilities of the other exchange rates. We find evidence of statistically significant intra-regional volatility spillovers among the Central European foreign exchange markets. With the exception of the Czech currency, we find no significant spillovers running from euro/dollar to the Central European foreign exchange markets. To measure the overall magnitude and evolution of volatility transmission over time, we construct a dynamic version of the Diebold-Yilmaz volatility spillover index, and show that volatility spillovers tend to increase in periods characterized by market uncertainty.foreign exchange markets, volatility, spillovers, intraday data, nonlinear dynamics

A 'bull and bear' model of interacting financial markets. Part I: dynamics in one and two dimensions

We develop a three-dimensional nonlinear dynamic model in which the stock markets of two countries are linked through the foreign exchange market. Connections are due to the trading activity of heterogeneous speculators. Using analytical and numerical tools, we seek to explore how the coupling of the markets may affect the emergence of 'bull and bear' market dynamics. The dimension of the model can be reduced by restricting investors' trading activity, which enables the dynamic analysis to be performed stepwise, from low-dimensional cases up to the full three-dimensional model. In Part I of our paper, we focus on the one and two-dimensional case.Heterogeneous speculators, bull and bear markets, nonlinear dynamics, homoclinic bifurcations.

A 'bull and bear' model of interacting financial markets. Part II: dynamics in three dimensions

In the fi…rst part of our paper we proposed a three-dimensional nonlinear dynamic model of interacting stock and foreign exchange markets, jointly driven by the speculative activity of heterogeneous investors. We focused, in particular, on the typical 'bull and bear' scenario that emerges from simpli…ed one- and two-dimensional settings. The goal of this part of the paper is to provide a global analysis of the dynamics of the full model. As it turns out, the results we obtained in the fi…rst part may serve as a road map to develop an initial understanding of the much more complicated three-dimensional model.Heterogeneous speculators, bull and bear markets, nonlinear dynamics, homoclinic bifurcations.

Capital Inflows, Inflation and Exchange Rate Volatility : An Investigation for Linear and Nonlinear Causal Linkages

Since the early 1990s, there is an upsurge in foreign capital flows to developing economies, particularly into emerging markets. One view argues that capital inflows do help to increase efficiency, a better allocation of capital and to fill up the investment-saving gap. Adherents to that view advise countries to launch capital account liberalisation. In this study, we investigate the effects of capital inflows on domestic price level, monetary expansion and exchange rate volatility. To proceed with this, linear and nonlinear cointegration and Granger causality tests are applied in a bi-variate as well as in multivariate framework. The key message of the analysis is that there is a significant inflationary impact of capital inflows, in particular during the last 7 years. The finding suggest that there is a need to manage the capital inflows in such a way that they should neither create an inflationary pressure in the economy nor fuel the exchange rate volatility.Capital Inflows, Inflationary Pressures, exchange rate volatility, Monetary Expansion, Nonlinear Dynamics

Capital Inflows, Inflation and Exchange Rate Volatility: An Investigation for Linear and Nonlinear Causal Linkages

Since the early 1990s, there is an upsurge in foreign capital flows to developing economies, particularly into emerging markets. One view argues that capital inflows do help to increase efficiency, a better allocation of capital and to fill up the investment-saving gap. Adherents to that view advise countries to launch capital account liberalisation. In this study, we investigate the effects of capital inflows on domestic price level, monetary expansion and exchange rate volatility. To proceed with this, linear and nonlinear cointegration and Granger causality tests are applied in a bi-variate as well as in multivariate framework. The key message of the analysis is that there is a significant inflationary impact of capital inflows, in particular during the last 7 years. The finding suggest that there is a need to manage the capital inflows in such a way that they should neither create an inflationary pressure in the economy nor fuel the exchange rate volatility.Capital Inflows, Inflationary Pressures, Exchange Rate Volatility, Monetary Expansion, Nonlinear Dynamics

The Emergence ofBull and BearDynamics in a Nonlinear Model of Interacting Markets

We develop a three-dimensional nonlinear dynamic model in which the stock markets of two countries are linked through the foreign exchange market. Connections are due to the trading activity of heterogeneous speculators. Using analytical and numerical tools, we seek to explore how the coupling of the markets may affect the emergence ofbull and bearmarket dynamics. The dimension of the model can be reduced by restricting investors' trading activity, which enables the dynamic analysis to be performed stepwise, from low-dimensional cases up to the full three-dimensional model. In our paper we focus mainly on the dynamics of the one- and two- dimensional cases, with numerical experiments and some analytical results, and also show that the main features persist in the three-dimensional model

Nonlinearities and cyclical behavior: the role of chartists and fundamentalists

We develop a behavioral exchange rate model with chartists and fundamentalists to study cyclical behavior in foreign exchange markets. Within our model, the market impact of fundamentalists depends on the strength of their belief in fundamental analysis. Estimation of a STAR GARCH model shows that the more the exchange rate deviates from its fundamental value, the more fundamentalists leave the market. In contrast to previous findings, our paper indicates that due to the nonlinear presence of fundamentalists, market stability decreases with increasing misalignments. A stabilization policy such as central bank interventions may help to deflate bubbles

Power-law behaviour evaluation from foreign exchange market data using a wavelet transform method

Numerous studies in the literature have shown that the dynamics of many time series including observations in foreign exchange markets exhibit scaling behaviours. A simple new statistical approach, derived from the concept of the continuous wavelet transform correlation function (WTCF), is proposed for the evaluation of power-law properties from observed data. The new method reveals that foreign exchange rates obey power-laws and thus belong to the class of self-similarity processes. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved