German Exchange Rate Exposure at DAX and Aggregate Level, International Trade, and the Role of Exchange Rate Adjustment Costs

This article analyses value changes of German stock market companies in response to movements of the US dollar. The approach followed in this work extends the standard means of measuring exchange rate exposure in several ways (e.g. by using multi-factor modelling instead of augmented CAPM, application of moving window panel regressions, orthogonalization of overall market risk vis-à-vis currency risk). The main innovation lies in testing implications of exchange rate adjustment costs (hedging costs) for firm values and exposure. Based on time series data of German DAX companies, DM/ dollar rates and macroeconomic factors, we find a rather unstable, time-variant exposure of German stock market companies. Dollar sensitivity is positively affected by the ratio of exports/GDP and negatively affected by imports/GDP as well as by significant deviations of the dollar price from its long-run median. The first two findings are in line with the presumption that exporting corporations benefit from dollar price increases, whereas importing corporations benefit from dollar price decreases. The last finding can be explained by higher exchange rate adjustment costs in case of substantial deviations from the long-run median level. Furthermore, there is indication of asymmetric adjustment costs as effects from appreciations of domestic currency appear to be smaller than from depreciations.

German Exchange Rate Exposure at DAX and Aggregate Level, International Trade, and the Role of Exchange Rate Adjustment Costs

This article analyses value changes of German stock market companies in response to movements of the US dollar. The approach followed in this work extends the standard means of measuring exchange rate exposure in several ways (e.g. by using multi-factor modelling instead of augmented CAPM, application of moving window panel regressions, orthogonalization of overall market risk vis-?-vis currency risk). The main innovation lies in testing implications of exchange rate adjustment costs (hedging costs) for firm values and exposure. Based on time series data of German DAX companies, DM/ dollar rates and macroeconomic factors, we find a rather unstable, time-variant exposure of German stock market companies. Dollar sensitivity is positively affected by the ratio of exports/GDP and negatively affected by imports/GDP as well as by significant deviations of the dollar price from its long-run median. The first two findings are in line with the presumption that exporting corporations benefit from dollar price increases, whereas importing corporations benefit from dollar price decreases. The last finding can be explained by higher exchange rate adjustment costs in case of substantial deviations from the long-run median level. Furthermore, there is indication of asymmetric adjustment costs as effects from appreciations of domestic currency appear to be smaller than from depreciations. --

German Exchange Rate Exposure at DAX and Aggregate Level, International Trade, and the Role of Exchange Rate Adjustment Costs

This article analyses value changes of German stock market companies in response to movements of the US dollar. The approach followed in this work extends the standard means of measuring exchange rate exposure in several ways, e.g. by us-ing multi-factor modelling instead of augmented CAPM, application of moving window panel regressions, and orthogonalization of overall market risk vis-à-vis currency risk. A further innovation lies in testing theoretical implications of exchange rate adjustment costs (hedging costs) for firm values and economic exposure. Based on time series and panel data of German DAX companies, DM/ dollar rates and macroeconomic factors, we find a rather unstable, time-variant exposure of German stock market companies. Dollar sensitivity is positively affected by the ratio of exports/GDP and negatively af-fected by imports/GDP. Moreover, as expected from theoretical findings, firm values and exchange rate exposure are significantly reduced by adjustment costs depending on the distance of the exchange rate from the expected long-run meanexchange rate exposure, international trade, panel econometrics, adjustment costs

Nonlinear Hedonics and the Search for School District Quality

Since the pioneering work of Tiebout (1956), economists have recognized that the quality of public services, especially schools, influence house prices. Many empirical studies have attempted to discern the extent to which the quality of public education affects house prices. Initially, researchers estimated hedonic pricing equations (Rosen, 1974). In a simple hedonic pricing model, a house's value depends on its comparable neighborhood and school district characteristics. A house's comparable characteristics include aspects such as the number of bedrooms, square feet, etc. Neighborhood characteristics typically include the distance to the nearest major downtown area, racial composition, and median household income. Education quality may be proxied by variables such as per-pupil spending, pupil/teacher ratio, and property taxes, which are usually available at the school district level, or it may be measured directly by state or local standardized tests scores, which are usually available at the school level. In an influential study, Black (1999) argues that past research estimating hedonic pricing functions (see Rosen, 1974) may introduce an upward bias due to neighborhood quality effects that are unaccounted for in the data. Specifically, she notes that better schools may be associated with better neighborhoods, which could independently contribute to higher house prices. Black circumvents this problem by estimating a linear hedonic pricing function using data only from houses which border the school attendance zone boundaries. She rationalizes that, while test scores make a discrete jump at attendance boundaries, changes in neighborhoods are more smooth. Black's linear specification presupposes that the marginal valuation of worse-than-average schools is equal to the valuation of better-than-average schools and results in a constant premium on school quality. Moreover, if school quality is normalized (i.e., expressed in terms of deviations from the mean), the linear capitalization term implies a penalty (increasing as quality decreases) for houses in attendance zones of schools performing below average. Thus, a linear model implies there exists a substantive pecuniary penalty for a really bad school compared to just a bad school. In this paper, we formulate a simple housing search model that yields a theoretical nonlinear pricing function. The nonlinearity in our model reflects two aspects of the market for public education via housing. First, alternative schooling arrangements (e.g., private school, home schooling, magnet schools, etc) can provide home buyers with high quality education even if they choose to live in below average school districts. The existence of these options underlies our belief that an increasing penalty for below average quality school attendance zones may be theoretically unappealing. Second, if buyers have positive valuations for education, they may concentrate their efforts among the highest quality attendance zones, yielding an increasing market tightness as school quality increases. Thus, buyers may face incresed competition for the highest quality schools and a rapidly increasing premium for houses in those attendance zones. Motivated by our theoretical specification, we extend Black's analysis and examine the relationship between school quality and house prices in the St. Louis, Missouri metropolitan area. A previous study by Ridker and Henning (1967) found no evidence of education capitalization in St. Louis house prices. While their main concern was to determine the negative effect of air pollution on housing prices, they included a dummy variable which indicated residents' attitudes about the quality of the schools (above average, average, and below average). Our goal is to determine the degree of education capitalization in the St. Louis MSA. We first measure education capitalization employing Black's methodology of considering only houses near attendance zone boundaries to control for neighborhood quality. This allows us to determine the extent to which Black's results extend to the St. Louis metro area. Then, we advance Black's methodology by considering the possibility that education capitalization affects house prices nonlinearly, as indicated by our theoretical framework. Black, Sandra E. "Do Better Schools Matter? Parental Valuation of Elementary Education," Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 1999, 114(2), pp. 577-599. Ridker, Ronald G. and Henning, John A. "The Determinants of Residential Property Values with Special Reference to Air Pollution," Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1967, 49(2), pp. 246-257. Rosen, Sherwin. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition," Journal of Political Economy, January-February 1974, 82(1), pp. 34-55. Tiebout, Charles M. "A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures," Journal of Political Economy, October 1956, 64(5), pp. 416-424.education, captialization, hedonic pricing, search

German Exchange Rate Exposure at DAX and Aggregate Level, International Trade, and the Role of Exchange Rate Adjustment Costs

This article analyses value changes of German stock market companies in response to movements of the US dollar. The approach followed in this work extends the standard means of measuring exchange rate exposure in several ways (e.g. by using multi-factor modelling instead of augmented CAPM, application of moving window panel regressions, orthogonalization of overall market risk vis-à-vis currency risk). The main innovation lies in testing implications of exchange rate adjustment costs (hedging costs) for firm values and exposure. Based on time series data of German DAX companies, DM/ dollar rates and macroeconomic factors, we find a rather unstable, time-variant exposure of German stock market companies. Dollar sensitivity is positively affected by the ratio of exports/GDP and negatively affected by imports/GDP as well as by significant deviations of the dollar price from its long-run median. The first two findings are in line with the presumption that exporting corporations benefit from dollar price increases, whereas importing corporations benefit from dollar price decreases. The last finding can be explained by higher exchange rate adjustment costs in case of substantial deviations from the long-run median level. Furthermore, there is indication of asymmetric adjustment costs as effects from appreciations of domestic currency appear to be smaller than from depreciations

Exchange Rate Volatility and Stock Market Behaviour: The Nigerian Experience

This study examines the long-run and short-run effects of exchange rate on stock market development in Nigeria over 1985:12009:4 using the Johansen cointegration tests. A bi-variate model was specified and empirical results show a significant positive stock market performance to exchange rate in the short-run and a significant negative stock market performance to exchange rate in the long-run. The Granger causality test shows a strong evidence that the causation runs from exchange rate to stock market performance; implying that variations in the Nigerian stock market is explained by exchange rate volatility. Keywords: Johansen Cointegration Tests; Granger Causality Test; Exchange Rate Volatility; Stock Market performance

Exchange Rate Volatility and Stock Market Behaviour: The Nigerian Experience

This study examines the long-run and short-run effects of exchange rate on stock market development in Nigeria over 1985:12009:4 using the Johansen cointegration tests. A bi-variate model was specified and empirical results show a significant positive stock market performance to exchange rate in the short-run and a significant negative stock market performance to exchange rate in the long-run. The Granger causality test shows a strong evidence that the causation runs from exchange rate to stock market performance; implying that variations in the Nigerian stock market is explained by exchange rate volatility. Keywords: Johansen Cointegration Tests; Granger Causality Test; Exchange Rate Volatility; Stock Market performance