ISBIS 2016: Meeting on Statistics in Business and Industry

This Book includes the abstracts of the talks presented at the 2016 International Symposium on Business and Industrial Statistics, held at Barcelona, June 8-10, 2016, hosted at the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya - Barcelona TECH, by the Department of Statistics and Operations Research. The location of the meeting was at ETSEIB Building (Escola Tecnica Superior d'Enginyeria Industrial) at Avda Diagonal 647. The meeting organizers celebrated the continued success of ISBIS and ENBIS society, and the meeting draw together the international community of statisticians, both academics and industry professionals, who share the goal of making statistics the foundation for decision making in business and related applications. The Scientific Program Committee was constituted by: David Banks, Duke University Amílcar Oliveira, DCeT - Universidade Aberta and CEAUL Teresa A. Oliveira, DCeT - Universidade Aberta and CEAUL Nalini Ravishankar, University of Connecticut Xavier Tort Martorell, Universitat Politécnica de Catalunya, Barcelona TECH Martina Vandebroek, KU Leuven Vincenzo Esposito Vinzi, ESSEC Business Schoo

Statistical inference for periodic and partially observable poisson processes

This thesis develops practical Bayesian estimators and exploration methods for count data collected by autonomous robots with unreliable sensors for long periods of time. It addresses the problems of drawing inferences from temporally incomplete and unreliable count data. This thesis contributes statistical models with spectral analysis which are able to capture the periodic structure of count data on extended temporal scales from temporally sparse observations. It is shown how to use these patterns to i) predict the human activity level at particular times and places and ii) categorize locations based on their periodic patterns. The second main contribution is a set of inference methods for a Poisson process which takes into account the unreliability of the detection algorithms used to count events. Two tractable approximations to the posterior of such Poisson processes are presented to cope with the absence of a conjugate density. Variations of these processes are presented, in which (i) sensors are uncorrelated, (ii) sensors are correlated, (iii) the unreliability of the observation model, when built from data, is accounted for. A simulation study shows that these partially observable Poisson process (POPP) filters correct the over- and under-counts produced by sensors. The third main contribution is a set of exploration methods which brings together the spectral models and the POPP filters to drive exploration by a mobile robot for a series of nine-week deployments. This leads to (i) a labelled data set and (ii) solving an exploration exploitation trade-off: the robot must explore to find out where activities congregate, so as to then exploit that by observing as many activities

Probabilistic modeling for single-photon lidar

Lidar is an increasingly prevalent technology for depth sensing, with applications including scientific measurement and autonomous navigation systems. While conventional systems require hundreds or thousands of photon detections per pixel to form accurate depth and reflectivity images, recent results for single-photon lidar (SPL) systems using single-photon avalanche diode (SPAD) detectors have shown accurate images formed from as little as one photon detection per pixel, even when half of those detections are due to uninformative ambient light. The keys to such photon-efficient image formation are two-fold: (i) a precise model of the probability distribution of photon detection times, and (ii) prior beliefs about the structure of natural scenes. Reducing the number of photons needed for accurate image formation enables faster, farther, and safer acquisition. Still, such photon-efficient systems are often limited to laboratory conditions more favorable than the real-world settings in which they would be deployed. This thesis focuses on expanding the photon detection time models to address challenging imaging scenarios and the effects of non-ideal acquisition equipment. The processing derived from these enhanced models, sometimes modified jointly with the acquisition hardware, surpasses the performance of state-of-the-art photon counting systems. We first address the problem of high levels of ambient light, which causes traditional depth and reflectivity estimators to fail. We achieve robustness to strong ambient light through a rigorously derived window-based censoring method that separates signal and background light detections. Spatial correlations both within and between depth and reflectivity images are encoded in superpixel constructions, which fill in holes caused by the censoring. Accurate depth and reflectivity images can then be formed with an average of 2 signal photons and 50 background photons per pixel, outperforming methods previously demonstrated at a signal-to-background ratio of 1. We next approach the problem of coarse temporal resolution for photon detection time measurements, which limits the precision of depth estimates. To achieve sub-bin depth precision, we propose a subtractively-dithered lidar implementation, which uses changing synchronization delays to shift the time-quantization bin edges. We examine the generic noise model resulting from dithering Gaussian-distributed signals and introduce a generalized Gaussian approximation to the noise distribution and simple order statistics-based depth estimators that take advantage of this model. Additional analysis of the generalized Gaussian approximation yields rules of thumb for determining when and how to apply dither to quantized measurements. We implement a dithered SPL system and propose a modification for non-Gaussian pulse shapes that outperforms the Gaussian assumption in practical experiments. The resulting dithered-lidar architecture could be used to design SPAD array detectors that can form precise depth estimates despite relaxed temporal quantization constraints. Finally, SPAD dead time effects have been considered a major limitation for fast data acquisition in SPL, since a commonly adopted approach for dead time mitigation is to operate in the low-flux regime where dead time effects can be ignored. We show that the empirical distribution of detection times converges to the stationary distribution of a Markov chain and demonstrate improvements in depth estimation and histogram correction using our Markov chain model. An example simulation shows that correctly compensating for dead times in a high-flux measurement can yield a 20-times speed up of data acquisition. The resulting accuracy at high photon flux could enable real-time applications such as autonomous navigation

Modeling and Analysis of Neural Spike Trains

open

Marine mammals in the Wider Caribbean - Current research and priorities for future studies

Information on the distribution, abundance and ecology of marine mammal in the Wider Caribbean Region is scarce. This report aims at collating the on-going research in the Wider Caribbean Region, at identifying the most critical knowledge gaps that need to be addressed to inform and facilitate conservation actions and assess the most suitable research techniques to fill these knowledge gaps

Untangling hotel industry’s inefficiency: An SFA approach applied to a renowned Portuguese hotel chain

The present paper explores the technical efficiency of four hotels from Teixeira Duarte Group - a renowned Portuguese hotel chain. An efficiency ranking is established from these four hotel units located in Portugal using Stochastic Frontier Analysis. This methodology allows to discriminate between measurement error and systematic inefficiencies in the estimation process enabling to investigate the main inefficiency causes. Several suggestions concerning efficiency improvement are undertaken for each hotel studied.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Virtuaalse proovikabiini 3D kehakujude ja roboti juhtimisalgoritmide uurimine

Väitekirja elektrooniline versioon ei sisalda publikatsiooneVirtuaalne riiete proovimine on üks põhilistest teenustest, mille pakkumine võib suurendada rõivapoodide edukust, sest tänu sellele lahendusele väheneb füüsilise töö vajadus proovimise faasis ning riiete proovimine muutub kasutaja jaoks mugavamaks. Samas pole enamikel varem välja pakutud masinnägemise ja graafika meetoditel õnnestunud inimkeha realistlik modelleerimine, eriti terve keha 3D modelleerimine, mis vajab suurt kogust andmeid ja palju arvutuslikku ressurssi. Varasemad katsed on ebaõnnestunud põhiliselt seetõttu, et ei ole suudetud korralikult arvesse võtta samaaegseid muutusi keha pinnal. Lisaks pole varasemad meetodid enamasti suutnud kujutiste liikumisi realistlikult reaalajas visualiseerida. Käesolev projekt kavatseb kõrvaldada eelmainitud puudused nii, et rahuldada virtuaalse proovikabiini vajadusi. Välja pakutud meetod seisneb nii kasutaja keha kui ka riiete skaneerimises, analüüsimises, modelleerimises, mõõtmete arvutamises, orientiiride paigutamises, mannekeenidelt võetud 3D visuaalsete andmete segmenteerimises ning riiete mudeli paigutamises ja visualiseerimises kasutaja kehal. Selle projekti käigus koguti visuaalseid andmeid kasutades 3D laserskannerit ja Kinecti optilist kaamerat ning koostati nendest andmebaas. Neid andmeid kasutati välja töötatud algoritmide testimiseks, mis peamiselt tegelevad riiete realistliku visuaalse kujutamisega inimkehal ja suuruse pakkumise süsteemi täiendamisega virtuaalse proovikabiini kontekstis.Virtual fitting constitutes a fundamental element of the developments expected to rise the commercial prosperity of online garment retailers to a new level, as it is expected to reduce the load of the manual labor and physical efforts required. Nevertheless, most of the previously proposed computer vision and graphics methods have failed to accurately and realistically model the human body, especially, when it comes to the 3D modeling of the whole human body. The failure is largely related to the huge data and calculations required, which in reality is caused mainly by inability to properly account for the simultaneous variations in the body surface. In addition, most of the foregoing techniques cannot render realistic movement representations in real-time. This project intends to overcome the aforementioned shortcomings so as to satisfy the requirements of a virtual fitting room. The proposed methodology consists in scanning and performing some specific analyses of both the user's body and the prospective garment to be virtually fitted, modeling, extracting measurements and assigning reference points on them, and segmenting the 3D visual data imported from the mannequins. Finally, superimposing, adopting and depicting the resulting garment model on the user's body. The project is intended to gather sufficient amounts of visual data using a 3D laser scanner and the Kinect optical camera, to manage it in form of a usable database, in order to experimentally implement the algorithms devised. The latter will provide a realistic visual representation of the garment on the body, and enhance the size-advisor system in the context of the virtual fitting room under study