37,194 research outputs found

    On the spot-futures no-arbitrage relations in commodity markets

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    In commodity markets the convergence of futures towards spot prices, at the expiration of the contract, is usually justified by no-arbitrage arguments. In this article, we propose an alternative approach that relies on the expected profit maximization problem of an agent, producing and storing a commodity while trading in the associated futures contracts. In this framework, the relation between the spot and the futures prices holds through the well-posedness of the maximization problem. We show that the futures price can still be seen as the risk-neutral expectation of the spot price at maturity and we propose an explicit formula for the forward volatility. Moreover, we provide an heuristic analysis of the optimal solution for the production/storage/trading problem, in a Markovian setting. This approach is particularly interesting in the case of energy commodities, like electricity: this framework indeed remains suitable for commodities characterized by storability constraints, when standard no-arbitrage arguments cannot be safely applied

    Cooperation in manure-based biogas production networks: An agent-based modeling approach

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    Biogas production from manure has been proposed as a partial solution to energy and environmental concerns. However, manure markets face distortions caused by considerable unbalance between supply and demand and environmental regulations imposed for soil and water protection. Such market distortions influence the cooperation between animal farmers, biogas producers and arable land owners causing fluctuations in manure prices paid (or incurred) by animal farmers. This paper adopts an agent-based modeling approach to investigate the interactions between manure suppliers, i.e., animal farmers, and biogas producers in an industrial symbiosis case example consisting of 19 municipalities in the Overijssel region (eastern Netherlands). To find the manure price for successful cooperation schemes, we measure the impact of manure discharge cost, dimension and dispersion of animal farms, incentives provided by the government for bioenergy production, and the investment costs of biogas plants for different scales on the economic returns for both actor types and favorable market conditions. Findings show that manure exchange prices may vary between −3.33 €/t manure (i.e., animal farmer pays to biogas producer) and 7.03 €/t manure (i.e., biogas producer pays to animal farmer) and thanks to cooperation, actors can create a total economic value added between 3.73 €/t manure and 39.37 €/t manure. Hence, there are cases in which animal farmers can profitably be paid, but the presence of a supply surplus not met by demand provides an advantage to arable land owners and biogas producers in the price contracting phase in the current situation in the Netherlands
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