Hybrid model using logit and nonparametric methods for predicting micro-entity failure

Following the calls from literature on bankruptcy, a parsimonious hybrid bankruptcy model is developed in this paper by combining parametric and non-parametric approaches.To this end, the variables with the highest predictive power to detect bankruptcy are selected using logistic regression (LR). Subsequently, alternative non-parametric methods (Multilayer Perceptron, Rough Set, and Classification-Regression Trees) are applied, in turn, to firms classified as either “bankrupt” or “not bankrupt”. Our findings show that hybrid models, particularly those combining LR and Multilayer Perceptron, offer better accuracy performance and interpretability and converge faster than each method implemented in isolation. Moreover, the authors demonstrate that the introduction of non-financial and macroeconomic variables complement financial ratios for bankruptcy prediction

A Comparison of classification/regression trees and logistic regression in failure models

The use of non-parametric statistical methods, the development of models geared towards the homogeneous characteristics of corporate sub-populations, and the introduction of non-financial variables, are three main issues analysed in this paper. This study compares the predictive performance of a non-parametric methodology, namelyClassification/Regression Trees (CART), against traditional logistic regression (LR) by employing a vast set of matched-pair accounts of the smallest enterprises, known as micro-entities,from the United Kingdom for the period 1999 to 2008 that includes financial, non-financial, and macroeconomic variables. Our findings show that CART outperforms the standard approach in the literature, LR

Optimal Rates for Spectral Algorithms with Least-Squares Regression over Hilbert Spaces

In this paper, we study regression problems over a separable Hilbert space with the square loss, covering non-parametric regression over a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. We investigate a class of spectral-regularized algorithms, including ridge regression, principal component analysis, and gradient methods. We prove optimal, high-probability convergence results in terms of variants of norms for the studied algorithms, considering a capacity assumption on the hypothesis space and a general source condition on the target function. Consequently, we obtain almost sure convergence results with optimal rates. Our results improve and generalize previous results, filling a theoretical gap for the non-attainable cases

Default Predictors and Credit Scoring Models for Retail Banking

This paper develops a specification of the credit scoring model with high discriminatory power to analyze data on loans at the retail banking market. Parametric and non- parametric approaches are employed to produce three models using logistic regression (parametric) and one model using Classification and Regression Trees (CART, nonparametric). The models are compared in terms of efficiency and power to discriminate between low and high risk clients by employing data from a new European Union economy. We are able to detect the most important characteristics of default behavior: the amount of resources the client has, the level of education, marital status, the purpose of the loan, and the number of years the client has had an account with the bank. Both methods are robust: they found similar variables as determinants. We therefore show that parametric as well as non-parametric methods can produce successful models. We are able to obtain similar results even when excluding a key financial variable (amount of own resources). The policy conclusion is that socio-demographic variables are important in the process of granting credit and therefore such variables should not be excluded from credit scoring model specification.credit scoring, discrimination analysis, banking sector, pattern recognition, retail loans, CART, European Union

On the spectral density of the wavelet coefficients of long memory time series with application to the log-regression estimation of the memory parameter

In the recent years, methods to estimate the memory parameter using wavelet analysis have gained popularity in many areas of science. Despite its widespread use, a rigorous semi-parametric asymptotic theory, comparable to the one developed for Fourier methods, is still missing. In this contribution, we adapt the classical semi-parametric framework introduced by Robinson and his co-authors for estimating the memory parameter of a (possibly) non-stationary process. As an application, we obtain minimax upper bounds for the log-scale regression estimator of the memory parameter for a Gaussian process and we derive an explicit expression of its variance.Comment: to appear in the Journal of Time Series Analysi