Comparative evaluation of machine learning models for groundwater quality assessment

Contamination from pesticides and nitrate in groundwater is a significant threat to water quality in general and agriculturally intensive regions in particular. Three widely used machine learning models, namely, artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM), and extreme gradient boosting (XGB), were evaluated for their efficacy in predicting contamination levels using sparse data with non-linear relationships. The predictive ability of the models was assessed using a dataset consisting of 303 wells across 12 Midwestern states in the USA. Multiple hydrogeologic, water quality, and land use features were chosen as the independent variables, and classes were based on measured concentration ranges of nitrate and pesticide. This study evaluates the classification performance of the models for two, three, and four class scenarios and compares them with the corresponding regression models. The study also examines the issue of class imbalance and tests the efficacy of three class imbalance mitigation techniques: oversampling, weighting, and oversampling and weighting, for all the scenarios. The models’ performance is reported using multiple metrics, both insensitive to class imbalance (accuracy) and sensitive to class imbalance (F1 score and MCC). Finally, the study assesses the importance of features using game-theoretic Shapley values to rank features consistently and offer model interpretability

Axiomatic Interpretability for Multiclass Additive Models

Generalized additive models (GAMs) are favored in many regression and binary classification problems because they are able to fit complex, nonlinear functions while still remaining interpretable. In the first part of this paper, we generalize a state-of-the-art GAM learning algorithm based on boosted trees to the multiclass setting, and show that this multiclass algorithm outperforms existing GAM learning algorithms and sometimes matches the performance of full complexity models such as gradient boosted trees. In the second part, we turn our attention to the interpretability of GAMs in the multiclass setting. Surprisingly, the natural interpretability of GAMs breaks down when there are more than two classes. Naive interpretation of multiclass GAMs can lead to false conclusions. Inspired by binary GAMs, we identify two axioms that any additive model must satisfy in order to not be visually misleading. We then develop a technique called Additive Post-Processing for Interpretability (API), that provably transforms a pre-trained additive model to satisfy the interpretability axioms without sacrificing accuracy. The technique works not just on models trained with our learning algorithm, but on any multiclass additive model, including multiclass linear and logistic regression. We demonstrate the effectiveness of API on a 12-class infant mortality dataset.Comment: KDD 201

Separation of pulsar signals from noise with supervised machine learning algorithms

We evaluate the performance of four different machine learning (ML) algorithms: an Artificial Neural Network Multi-Layer Perceptron (ANN MLP ), Adaboost, Gradient Boosting Classifier (GBC), XGBoost, for the separation of pulsars from radio frequency interference (RFI) and other sources of noise, using a dataset obtained from the post-processing of a pulsar search pi peline. This dataset was previously used for cross-validation of the SPINN-based machine learning engine, used for the reprocessing of HTRU-S survey data arXiv:1406.3627. We have used Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) to deal with high class imbalance in the dataset. We report a variety of quality scores from all four of these algorithms on both the non-SMOTE and SMOTE datasets. For all the above ML methods, we report high accuracy and G-mean in both the non-SMOTE and SMOTE cases. We study the feature importances using Adaboost, GBC, and XGBoost and also from the minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance approach to report algorithm-agnostic feature ranking. From these methods, we find that the signal to noise of the folded profile to be the best feature. We find that all the ML algorithms report FPRs about an order of magnitude lower than the corresponding FPRs obtained in arXiv:1406.3627, for the same recall value.Comment: 14 pages, 2 figures. Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Computin