Probabilistic Numerics and Uncertainty in Computations

We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods: algorithms for numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their calculations. Such uncertainties, arising from the loss of precision induced by numerical calculation with limited time or hardware, are important for much contemporary science and industry. Within applications such as climate science and astrophysics, the need to make decisions on the basis of computations with large and complex data has led to a renewed focus on the management of numerical uncertainty. We describe how several seminal classic numerical methods can be interpreted naturally as probabilistic inference. We then show that the probabilistic view suggests new algorithms that can flexibly be adapted to suit application specifics, while delivering improved empirical performance. We provide concrete illustrations of the benefits of probabilistic numeric algorithms on real scientific problems from astrometry and astronomical imaging, while highlighting open problems with these new algorithms. Finally, we describe how probabilistic numerical methods provide a coherent framework for identifying the uncertainty in calculations performed with a combination of numerical algorithms (e.g. both numerical optimisers and differential equation solvers), potentially allowing the diagnosis (and control) of error sources in computations.Comment: Author Generated Postprint. 17 pages, 4 Figures, 1 Tabl

Reliability-based economic model predictive control for generalized flow-based networks including actuators' health-aware capabilities

This paper proposes a reliability-based economic model predictive control (MPC) strategy for the management of generalized flow-based networks, integrating some ideas on network service reliability, dynamic safety stock planning, and degradation of equipment health. The proposed strategy is based on a single-layer economic optimisation problem with dynamic constraints, which includes two enhancements with respect to existing approaches. The first enhancement considers chance-constraint programming to compute an optimal inventory replenishment policy based on a desired risk acceptability level, leading to dynamically allocate safety stocks in flow-based networks to satisfy non-stationary flow demands. The second enhancement computes a smart distribution of the control effort and maximises actuators’ availability by estimating their degradation and reliability. The proposed approach is illustrated with an application of water transport networks using the Barcelona network as the considered case study.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Generalized planning: Non-deterministic abstractions and trajectory constraints

We study the characterization and computation of general policies for families of problems that share a structure characterized by a common reduction into a single abstract problem. Policies mu that solve the abstract problem P have been shown to solve all problems Q that reduce to P provided that mu terminates in Q. In this work, we shed light on why this termination condition is needed and how it can be removed. The key observation is that the abstract problem P captures the common structure among the concrete problems Q that is local (Markovian) but misses common structure that is global. We show how such global structure can be captured by means of trajectory constraints that in many cases can be expressed as LTL formulas, thus reducing generalized planning to LTL synthesis. Moreover, for a broad class of problems that involve integer variables that can be increased or decreased, trajectory constraints can be compiled away, reducing generalized planning to fully observable nondeterministic planning

Multi-Resolution Functional ANOVA for Large-Scale, Many-Input Computer Experiments

The Gaussian process is a standard tool for building emulators for both deterministic and stochastic computer experiments. However, application of Gaussian process models is greatly limited in practice, particularly for large-scale and many-input computer experiments that have become typical. We propose a multi-resolution functional ANOVA model as a computationally feasible emulation alternative. More generally, this model can be used for large-scale and many-input non-linear regression problems. An overlapping group lasso approach is used for estimation, ensuring computational feasibility in a large-scale and many-input setting. New results on consistency and inference for the (potentially overlapping) group lasso in a high-dimensional setting are developed and applied to the proposed multi-resolution functional ANOVA model. Importantly, these results allow us to quantify the uncertainty in our predictions. Numerical examples demonstrate that the proposed model enjoys marked computational advantages. Data capabilities, both in terms of sample size and dimension, meet or exceed best available emulation tools while meeting or exceeding emulation accuracy

On the role of pre and post-processing in environmental data mining

The quality of discovered knowledge is highly depending on data quality. Unfortunately real data use to contain noise, uncertainty, errors, redundancies or even irrelevant information. The more complex is the reality to be analyzed, the higher the risk of getting low quality data. Knowledge Discovery from Databases (KDD) offers a global framework to prepare data in the right form to perform correct analyses. On the other hand, the quality of decisions taken upon KDD results, depend not only on the quality of the results themselves, but on the capacity of the system to communicate those results in an understandable form. Environmental systems are particularly complex and environmental users particularly require clarity in their results. In this paper some details about how this can be achieved are provided. The role of the pre and post processing in the whole process of Knowledge Discovery in environmental systems is discussed