223,941 research outputs found

    Validating argument-based opinion dynamics with survey experiments

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    The empirical validation of models remains one of the most important challenges in opinion dynamics. In this contribution, we report on recent developments on combining data from survey experiments with computational models of opinion formation. We extend previous work on the empirical assessment of an argument-based model for opinion dynamics in which biased processing is the principle mechanism. While previous work (Banisch & Shamon, in press) has focused on calibrating the micro mechanism with experimental data on argument-induced opinion change, this paper concentrates on the macro level using the empirical data gathered in the survey experiment. For this purpose, the argument model is extended by an external source of balanced information which allows to control for the impact of peer influence processes relative to other noisy processes. We show that surveyed opinion distributions are matched with a high level of accuracy in a specific region in the parameter space, indicating an equal impact of social influence and external noise. More importantly, the estimated strength of biased processing given the macro data is compatible with those values that achieve high likelihood at the micro level. The main contribution of the paper is hence to show that the extended argument-based model provides a solid bridge from the micro processes of argument-induced attitude change to macro level opinion distributions. Beyond that, we review the development of argument-based models and present a new method for the automated classification of model outcomes.Comment: Keywords: opinion dynamics, validation, empirical confirmation, survey experiments, parameter estimation, argument communication theory, computational social scienc

    Approximation of Optimal Control Surfaces for the Bass Model with Stochastic Dynamics

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    The Bass diffusion equation is a well-known and established modeling approach for describing new product adoption in a competitive market. This model also describes diffusion phenomena in various contexts: infectious disease spread modeling and estimation, rumor spread on social networks, prediction of renewable energy technology markets, among others. Most of these models, however, consider a deterministic trajectory of the associated state variable (e.g., market-share). In reality, the diffusion process is subject to noise, and a stochastic component must be added to the state dynamics. The stochastic Bass model has also been studied in many areas, such as energy markets and marketing. Exploring the stochastic version of the Bass diffusion model, we propose in this work an approximation of (stochastic) optimal control surfaces for a continuous-time problem arising from a 2×22\times2 skew symmetric evolutionary game, providing the stochastic counter-part of the Fourier-based optimal control approximation already existent in the literature

    Resilience and Controllability of Dynamic Collective Behaviors

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    The network paradigm is used to gain insight into the structural root causes of the resilience of consensus in dynamic collective behaviors, and to analyze the controllability of the swarm dynamics. Here we devise the dynamic signaling network which is the information transfer channel underpinning the swarm dynamics of the directed interagent connectivity based on a topological neighborhood of interactions. The study of the connectedness of the swarm signaling network reveals the profound relationship between group size and number of interacting neighbors, which is found to be in good agreement with field observations on flock of starlings [Ballerini et al. (2008) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105: 1232]. Using a dynamical model, we generate dynamic collective behaviors enabling us to uncover that the swarm signaling network is a homogeneous clustered small-world network, thus facilitating emergent outcomes if connectedness is maintained. Resilience of the emergent consensus is tested by introducing exogenous environmental noise, which ultimately stresses how deeply intertwined are the swarm dynamics in the physical and network spaces. The availability of the signaling network allows us to analytically establish for the first time the number of driver agents necessary to fully control the swarm dynamics

    Data based identification and prediction of nonlinear and complex dynamical systems

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    We thank Dr. R. Yang (formerly at ASU), Dr. R.-Q. Su (formerly at ASU), and Mr. Zhesi Shen for their contributions to a number of original papers on which this Review is partly based. This work was supported by ARO under Grant No. W911NF-14-1-0504. W.-X. Wang was also supported by NSFC under Grants No. 61573064 and No. 61074116, as well as by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, Beijing Nova Programme.Peer reviewedPostprin

    Macroscopic Noisy Bounded Confidence Models with Distributed Radical Opinions

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    In this article, we study the nonlinear Fokker-Planck (FP) equation that arises as a mean-field (macroscopic) approximation of bounded confidence opinion dynamics, where opinions are influenced by environmental noises and opinions of radicals (stubborn individuals). The distribution of radical opinions serves as an infinite-dimensional exogenous input to the FP equation, visibly influencing the steady opinion profile. We establish mathematical properties of the FP equation. In particular, we (i) show the well-posedness of the dynamic equation, (ii) provide existence result accompanied by a quantitative global estimate for the corresponding stationary solution, and (iii) establish an explicit lower bound on the noise level that guarantees exponential convergence of the dynamics to stationary state. Combining the results in (ii) and (iii) readily yields the input-output stability of the system for sufficiently large noises. Next, using Fourier analysis, the structure of opinion clusters under the uniform initial distribution is examined. Specifically, two numerical schemes for identification of order-disorder transition and characterization of initial clustering behavior are provided. The results of analysis are validated through several numerical simulations of the continuum-agent model (partial differential equation) and the corresponding discrete-agent model (interacting stochastic differential equations) for a particular distribution of radicals
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