Autoregressive time series prediction by means of fuzzy inference systems using nonparametric residual variance estimation

We propose an automatic methodology framework for short- and long-term prediction of time series by means of fuzzy inference systems. In this methodology, fuzzy techniques and statistical techniques for nonparametric residual variance estimation are combined in order to build autoregressive predictive models implemented as fuzzy inference systems. Nonparametric residual variance estimation plays a key role in driving the identification and learning procedures. Concrete criteria and procedures within the proposed methodology framework are applied to a number of time series prediction problems. The learn from examples method introduced by Wang and Mendel (W&M) is used for identification. The Levenberg–Marquardt (L–M) optimization method is then applied for tuning. The W&M method produces compact and potentially accurate inference systems when applied after a proper variable selection stage. The L–M method yields the best compromise between accuracy and interpretability of results, among a set of alternatives. Delta test based residual variance estimations are used in order to select the best subset of inputs to the fuzzy inference systems as well as the number of linguistic labels for the inputs. Experiments on a diverse set of time series prediction benchmarks are compared against least-squares support vector machines (LS-SVM), optimally pruned extreme learning machine (OP-ELM), and k-NN based autoregressors. The advantages of the proposed methodology are shown in terms of linguistic interpretability, generalization capability and computational cost. Furthermore, fuzzy models are shown to be consistently more accurate for prediction in the case of time series coming from real-world applications.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación TEC2008-04920Junta de Andalucía P08-TIC-03674, IAC07-I-0205:33080, IAC08-II-3347:5626

Differential Dynamic Programming for time-delayed systems

Trajectory optimization considers the problem of deciding how to control a dynamical system to move along a trajectory which minimizes some cost function. Differential Dynamic Programming (DDP) is an optimal control method which utilizes a second-order approximation of the problem to find the control. It is fast enough to allow real-time control and has been shown to work well for trajectory optimization in robotic systems. Here we extend classic DDP to systems with multiple time-delays in the state. Being able to find optimal trajectories for time-delayed systems with DDP opens up the possibility to use richer models for system identification and control, including recurrent neural networks with multiple timesteps in the state. We demonstrate the algorithm on a two-tank continuous stirred tank reactor. We also demonstrate the algorithm on a recurrent neural network trained to model an inverted pendulum with position information only.Comment: 7 pages, 6 figures, conference, Decision and Control (CDC), 2016 IEEE 55th Conference o

Prescribed Performance Control Guided Policy Improvement for Satisfying Signal Temporal Logic Tasks

Signal temporal logic (STL) provides a user-friendly interface for defining complex tasks for robotic systems. Recent efforts aim at designing control laws or using reinforcement learning methods to find policies which guarantee satisfaction of these tasks. While the former suffer from the trade-off between task specification and computational complexity, the latter encounter difficulties in exploration as the tasks become more complex and challenging to satisfy. This paper proposes to combine the benefits of the two approaches and use an efficient prescribed performance control (PPC) base law to guide exploration within the reinforcement learning algorithm. The potential of the method is demonstrated in a simulated environment through two sample navigational tasks.Comment: This is the extended version of the paper accepted to the 2019 American Control Conference (ACC), Philadelphia (to be published