Smoothness for Simultaneous Composition of Mechanisms with Admission

We study social welfare of learning outcomes in mechanisms with admission. In our repeated game there are $n$ bidders and $m$ mechanisms, and in each round each mechanism is available for each bidder only with a certain probability. Our scenario is an elementary case of simple mechanism design with incomplete information, where availabilities are bidder types. It captures natural applications in online markets with limited supply and can be used to model access of unreliable channels in wireless networks. If mechanisms satisfy a smoothness guarantee, existing results show that learning outcomes recover a significant fraction of the optimal social welfare. These approaches, however, have serious drawbacks in terms of plausibility and computational complexity. Also, the guarantees apply only when availabilities are stochastically independent among bidders. In contrast, we propose an alternative approach where each bidder uses a single no-regret learning algorithm and applies it in all rounds. This results in what we call availability-oblivious coarse correlated equilibria. It exponentially decreases the learning burden, simplifies implementation (e.g., as a method for channel access in wireless devices), and thereby addresses some of the concerns about Bayes-Nash equilibria and learning outcomes in Bayesian settings. Our main results are general composition theorems for smooth mechanisms when valuation functions of bidders are lattice-submodular. They rely on an interesting connection to the notion of correlation gap of submodular functions over product lattices.Comment: Full version of WINE 2016 pape

Universality of Bayesian mixture predictors

The problem is that of sequential probability forecasting for finite-valued time series. The data is generated by an unknown probability distribution over the space of all one-way infinite sequences. It is known that this measure belongs to a given set C, but the latter is completely arbitrary (uncountably infinite, without any structure given). The performance is measured with asymptotic average log loss. In this work it is shown that the minimax asymptotic performance is always attainable, and it is attained by a convex combination of a countably many measures from the set C (a Bayesian mixture). This was previously only known for the case when the best achievable asymptotic error is 0. This also contrasts previous results that show that in the non-realizable case all Bayesian mixtures may be suboptimal, while there is a predictor that achieves the optimal performance