Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market by a hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach

In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of one week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Intelligent machine learning with evolutionary algorithm based short term load forecasting in power systems

Electricity demand forecasting remains a challenging issue for power system scheduling at varying stages of energy sectors. Short Term load forecasting (STLF) plays a vital part in regulated power systems and electricity markets, which is commonly employed to predict the outcomes power failures. This paper presents an intelligent machine learning with evolutionary algorithm based STLF model, called (IMLEA-STLF) for power systems which involves different stages of operations such as data decomposition, data preprocessing, feature selection, prediction, and parameter tuning. Wavelet transform (WT) is used for the decomposition of the time series and Oppositional Artificial Fish Swarm Optimization algorithm (OAFSA) based feature selection technique to elect an optimal set of features. In order to improvise the convergence rate of AFSA, oppositional based learning (OBL) concept is integrated into it. Then, the water wave optimization (WWO) with Elman neural networks (ENN) model is employed for the predictive process. Finally, inverse WT is applied and obtained the hourly load forecasting data. To validate the effective predictive outcome of the IMLEA-STLF model, an extensive set of simulations take place on benchmark dataset. The resultant values ensured the promising results of the IMLEA-STLF model over the other compared methods

Architecting system of systems: artificial life analysis of financial market behavior

This research study focuses on developing a framework that can be utilized by system architects to understand the emergent behavior of system architectures. The objective is to design a framework that is modular and flexible in providing different ways of modeling sub-systems of System of Systems. At the same time, the framework should capture the adaptive behavior of the system since evolution is one of the key characteristics of System of Systems. Another objective is to design the framework so that humans can be incorporated into the analysis. The framework should help system architects understand the behavior as well as promoters or inhibitors of change in human systems. Computational intelligence tools have been successfully used in analysis of Complex Adaptive Systems. Since a System of Systems is a collection of Complex Adaptive Systems, a framework utilizing combination of these tools can be developed. Financial markets are selected to demonstrate the various architectures developed from the analysis framework --Introduction, page 3

Optimal energy management of a microgrid system

Mestrado de dupla diplomação com École Superieure en Sciences AppliquéesA smart management strategy for the energy ows circulating in microgrids is necessary to economically manage local production and consumption while maintaining the balance between supply and demand. Finding the optimum set-points of the various generators and the best scheduling of the microgrid generators can lead to moderate and judicious use of the powers available in the microgrid. This thesis aims to apply an energy management system based on optimization algorithms to ensure the optimal control of microgrids by taking as main purpose the minimization of the energy costs and reduction of the gas emissions rate responsible for greenhouse gases. Two approaches have been proposed to nd the optimal operating setpoints. The rst one is based on a uni-objective optimization approach in which several energy management systems are implemented for three case studies. This rst approach treats the optimization problem in a uni-objective way where the two functions price and gas emission are treated separately through optimization algorithms. In this approach the used methods are simplex method, particle swarm optimization, genetic algorithm and a hybrid method (LPPSO). The second situation is based on a multiobjective optimization approach that deals with the optimization of the two functions: cost and gas emission simultaneously, the optimization algorithm used for this purpose is Pareto-search. The resulting Pareto optimal points represent di erent scheduling scenarios of the microgrid system.Uma estrat egia de gest~ao inteligente dos uxos de energia que circulam numa microrrede e necess aria para gerir economicamente a produ c~ao e o consumo local, mantendo o equil brio entre a oferta e a procura. Encontrar a melhor programa c~ao dos geradores de microrrede pode levar a uma utiliza c~ao moderada e criteriosa das pot^encias dispon veis na microrrede. Esta tese visa desenvolver um sistema de gest~ao de energia baseado em algoritmos de otimiza c~ao para assegurar o controlo otimo das microrredes, tendo como objetivo principal a minimiza c~ao dos custos energ eticos e a redu c~ao da taxa de emiss~ao de gases respons aveis pelo com efeito de estufa. Foram propostas duas estrat egias para encontrar o escalonamento otimo para funcionamento. A primeira baseia-se numa abordagem de otimiza c~ao uni-objetivo no qual v arios sistemas de gest~ao de energia s~ao implementados para tr^es casos de estudo. Neste caso o problema de otimiza c~ao e baseado na fun c~ao pre co e na fun c~ao emiss~ao de gases. Os m etodos de otimiza c~ao utilizados foram: algoritmo simplex, algoritmos gen eticos, particle swarm optimization e m etodo h brido (LP-PSO). A segunda situa c~ao baseia-se numa abordagem de otimiza c~ao multi-objetivo que trata a otimiza c~ao das duas fun c~oes: custo e emiss~ao de gases em simult^aneo. O algoritmo de otimiza c~ao utilizado para este m foi a Procura de Pareto. Os pontos otimos de Pareto resultantes representam diferentes cen arios de programa c~ao do sistema de microrrede

Comparison of different models for forecasting of Czech electricity market

Mnoho rozdílných přístupů jako jsou umělé neuronové sítě nebo SVR bývá použito v literatuře. Tato práce poskytuje srovnání několika rozdílných metod v jednotných podmínkách za použití dat z Českého trhu s elektřinou. Výsledné srovnání více jak 5000 modelů vedlo k vybrání několika nejlepších modelů. Tato práce také vyhodnocuje roli historických meteorologických dat (teplota, rosný bod a vlhkost) - bylo zjištěno, že třebaže použití meteorologických může vést k přeučení, za vhodných podmínek může také vést k přesnějším modelům. Nejlepší testovaný přístup představovala Lasso regrese. 1There is a demand for decision support tools that can model the electricity markets and allows to forecast the hourly electricity price. Many different ap- proach such as artificial neural network or support vector regression are used in the literature. This thesis provides comparison of several different estima- tors under one settings using available data from Czech electricity market. The resulting comparison of over 5000 different estimators led to a selection of several best performing models. The role of historical weather data (temper- ature, dew point and humidity) is also assesed within the comparison and it was found that while the inclusion of weather data might lead to overfitting, it is beneficial under the right circumstances. The best performing approach was the Lasso regression estimated using modified Lars. 1Institut ekonomických studiíInstitute of Economic StudiesFaculty of Social SciencesFakulta sociálních vě

K-Means and Alternative Clustering Methods in Modern Power Systems

As power systems evolve by integrating renewable energy sources, distributed generation, and electric vehicles, the complexity of managing these systems increases. With the increase in data accessibility and advancements in computational capabilities, clustering algorithms, including K-means, are becoming essential tools for researchers in analyzing, optimizing, and modernizing power systems. This paper presents a comprehensive review of over 440 articles published through 2022, emphasizing the application of K-means clustering, a widely recognized and frequently used algorithm, along with its alternative clustering methods within modern power systems. The main contributions of this study include a bibliometric analysis to understand the historical development and wide-ranging applications of K-means clustering in power systems. This research also thoroughly examines K-means, its various variants, potential limitations, and advantages. Furthermore, the study explores alternative clustering algorithms that can complete or substitute K-means. Some prominent examples include K-medoids, Time-series K-means, BIRCH, Bayesian clustering, HDBSCAN, CLIQUE, SPECTRAL, SOMs, TICC, and swarm-based methods, broadening the understanding and applications of clustering methodologies in modern power systems. The paper highlights the wide-ranging applications of these techniques, from load forecasting and fault detection to power quality analysis and system security assessment. Throughout the examination, it has been observed that the number of publications employing clustering algorithms within modern power systems is following an exponential upward trend. This emphasizes the necessity for professionals to understand various clustering methods, including their benefits and potential challenges, to incorporate the most suitable ones into their studies

Big Data Analysis application in the renewable energy market: wind power

Entre as enerxías renovables, a enerxía eólica e unha das tecnoloxías mundiais de rápido crecemento. Non obstante, esta incerteza debería minimizarse para programar e xestionar mellor os activos de xeración tradicionais para compensar a falta de electricidade nas redes electricas. A aparición de técnicas baseadas en datos ou aprendizaxe automática deu a capacidade de proporcionar predicións espaciais e temporais de alta resolución da velocidade e potencia do vento. Neste traballo desenvólvense tres modelos diferentes de ANN, abordando tres grandes problemas na predición de series de datos con esta técnica: garantía de calidade de datos e imputación de datos non válidos, asignación de hiperparámetros e selección de funcións. Os modelos desenvolvidos baséanse en técnicas de agrupación, optimización e procesamento de sinais para proporcionar predicións de velocidade e potencia do vento a curto e medio prazo (de minutos a horas)