New Techniques for Learning Parameters in Bayesian Networks.

PhDOne of the hardest challenges in building a realistic Bayesian network (BN) model is to construct the node probability tables (NPTs). Even with a fixed predefined model structure and very large amounts of relevant data, machine learning methods do not consistently achieve great accuracy compared to the ground truth when learning the NPT entries (parameters). Hence, it is widely believed that incorporating expert judgment or related domain knowledge can improve the parameter learning accuracy. This is especially true in the sparse data situation. Expert judgments come in many forms. In this thesis we focus on expert judgment that specifies inequality or equality relationships among variables. Related domain knowledge is data that comes from a different but related problem. By exploiting expert judgment and related knowledge, this thesis makes novel contributions to improve the BN parameter learning performance, including: • The multinomial parameter learning model with interior constraints (MPL-C) and exterior constraints (MPL-EC). This model itself is an auxiliary BN, which encodes the multinomial parameter learning process and constraints elicited from the expert judgments. • The BN parameter transfer learning (BNPTL) algorithm. Given some potentially related (source) BNs, this algorithm automatically explores the most relevant source BN and BN fragments, and fuses the selected source and target parameters in a robust way. • A generic BN parameter learning framework. This framework uses both expert judgments and transferred knowledge to improve the learning accuracy. This framework transfers the mined data statistics from the source network as the parameter priors of the target network. Experiments based on the BNs from a well-known repository as well as two realworld case studies using different data sample sizes demonstrate that the proposed new approaches can achieve much greater learning accuracy compared to other state-of-theart methods with relatively sparse data.China Scholarship Counci

Learning Bayesian network equivalence classes using ant colony optimisation

Bayesian networks have become an indispensable tool in the modelling of uncertain knowledge. Conceptually, they consist of two parts: a directed acyclic graph called the structure, and conditional probability distributions attached to each node known as the parameters. As a result of their expressiveness, understandability and rigorous mathematical basis, Bayesian networks have become one of the first methods investigated, when faced with an uncertain problem domain. However, a recurring problem persists in specifying a Bayesian network. Both the structure and parameters can be difficult for experts to conceive, especially if their knowledge is tacit.To counteract these problems, research has been ongoing, on learning both the structure and parameters of Bayesian networks from data. Whilst there are simple methods for learning the parameters, learning the structure has proved harder. Part ofthis stems from the NP-hardness of the problem and the super-exponential space of possible structures. To help solve this task, this thesis seeks to employ a relatively new technique, that has had much success in tackling NP-hard problems. This technique is called ant colony optimisation. Ant colony optimisation is a metaheuristic based on the behaviour of ants acting together in a colony. It uses the stochastic activity of artificial ants to find good solutions to combinatorial optimisation problems. In the current work, this method is applied to the problem of searching through the space of equivalence classes of Bayesian networks, in order to find a good match against a set of data. The system uses operators that evaluate potential modifications to a current state. Each of the modifications is scored and the results used to inform the search. In order to facilitate these steps, other techniques are also devised, to speed up the learning process. The techniques includeThe techniques are tested by sampling data from gold standard networks and learning structures from this sampled data. These structures are analysed using various goodnessof-fit measures to see how well the algorithms perform. The measures include structural similarity metrics and Bayesian scoring metrics. The results are compared in depth against systems that also use ant colony optimisation and other methods, including evolutionary programming and greedy heuristics. Also, comparisons are made to well known state-of-the-art algorithms and a study performed on a real-life data set. The results show favourable performance compared to the other methods and on modelling the real-life data

Learning Bayesian networks based on optimization approaches

Learning accurate classifiers from preclassified data is a very active research topic in machine learning and artifcial intelligence. There are numerous classifier paradigms, among which Bayesian Networks are very effective and well known in domains with uncertainty. Bayesian Networks are widely used representation frameworks for reasoning with probabilistic information. These models use graphs to capture dependence and independence relationships between feature variables, allowing a concise representation of the knowledge as well as efficient graph based query processing algorithms. This representation is defined by two components: structure learning and parameter learning. The structure of this model represents a directed acyclic graph. The nodes in the graph correspond to the feature variables in the domain, and the arcs (edges) show the causal relationships between feature variables. A directed edge relates the variables so that the variable corresponding to the terminal node (child) will be conditioned on the variable corresponding to the initial node (parent). The parameter learning represents probabilities and conditional probabilities based on prior information or past experience. The set of probabilities are represented in the conditional probability table. Once the network structure is constructed, the probabilistic inferences are readily calculated, and can be performed to predict the outcome of some variables based on the observations of others. However, the problem of structure learning is a complex problem since the number of candidate structures grows exponentially when the number of feature variables increases. This thesis is devoted to the development of learning structures and parameters in Bayesian Networks. Different models based on optimization techniques are introduced to construct an optimal structure of a Bayesian Network. These models also consider the improvement of the Naive Bayes' structure by developing new algorithms to alleviate the independence assumptions. We present various models to learn parameters of Bayesian Networks; in particular we propose optimization models for the Naive Bayes and the Tree Augmented Naive Bayes by considering different objective functions. To solve corresponding optimization problems in Bayesian Networks, we develop new optimization algorithms. Local optimization methods are introduced based on the combination of the gradient and Newton methods. It is proved that the proposed methods are globally convergent and have superlinear convergence rates. As a global search we use the global optimization method, AGOP, implemented in the open software library GANSO. We apply the proposed local methods in the combination with AGOP. Therefore, the main contributions of this thesis include (a) new algorithms for learning an optimal structure of a Bayesian Network; (b) new models for learning the parameters of Bayesian Networks with the given structures; and finally (c) new optimization algorithms for optimizing the proposed models in (a) and (b). To validate the proposed methods, we conduct experiments across a number of real world problems. Print version is available at: http://library.federation.edu.au/record=b1804607~S4Doctor of Philosoph

A practical Bayesian framework for backpropagation networks

A quantitative and practical Bayesian framework is described for learning of mappings in feedforward networks. The framework makes possible (1) objective comparisons between solutions using alternative network architectures, (2) objective stopping rules for network pruning or growing procedures, (3) objective choice of magnitude and type of weight decay terms or additive regularizers (for penalizing large weights, etc.), (4) a measure of the effective number of well-determined parameters in a model, (5) quantified estimates of the error bars on network parameters and on network output, and (6) objective comparisons with alternative learning and interpolation models such as splines and radial basis functions. The Bayesian "evidence" automatically embodies "Occam's razor," penalizing overflexible and overcomplex models. The Bayesian approach helps detect poor underlying assumptions in learning models. For learning models well matched to a problem, a good correlation between generalization ability and the Bayesian evidence is obtained

Probabilistic Methodology and Techniques for Artefact Conception and Development

The purpose of this paper is to make a state of the art on probabilistic methodology and techniques for artefact conception and development. It is the 8th deliverable of the BIBA (Bayesian Inspired Brain and Artefacts) project. We first present the incompletness problem as the central difficulty that both living creatures and artefacts have to face: how can they perceive, infer, decide and act efficiently with incomplete and uncertain knowledge?. We then introduce a generic probabilistic formalism called Bayesian Programming. This formalism is then used to review the main probabilistic methodology and techniques. This review is organized in 3 parts: first the probabilistic models from Bayesian networks to Kalman filters and from sensor fusion to CAD systems, second the inference techniques and finally the learning and model acquisition and comparison methodologies. We conclude with the perspectives of the BIBA project as they rise from this state of the art

Learning the structure of Bayesian Networks: A quantitative assessment of the effect of different algorithmic schemes

One of the most challenging tasks when adopting Bayesian Networks (BNs) is the one of learning their structure from data. This task is complicated by the huge search space of possible solutions, and by the fact that the problem is NP-hard. Hence, full enumeration of all the possible solutions is not always feasible and approximations are often required. However, to the best of our knowledge, a quantitative analysis of the performance and characteristics of the different heuristics to solve this problem has never been done before. For this reason, in this work, we provide a detailed comparison of many different state-of-the-arts methods for structural learning on simulated data considering both BNs with discrete and continuous variables, and with different rates of noise in the data. In particular, we investigate the performance of different widespread scores and algorithmic approaches proposed for the inference and the statistical pitfalls within them