Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes

This work prepared for B. Hall and N. Rosenberg (eds.) Handbook of Innovation, Elsevier (2010), lays out the basic premises of this research and review and integrate much of what has been learned on the processes of technological evolution, their main features and their effects on the evolution of industries. First, we map and integrate the various pieces of evidence concerning the nature and structure of technological knowledge the sources of novel opportunities, the dynamics through which they are tapped and the revealed outcomes in terms of advances in production techniques and product characteristics. Explicit recognition of the evolutionary manners through which technological change proceed has also profound implications for the way economists theorize about and analyze a number of topics central to the discipline. One is the theory of the firm in industries where technological and organizational innovation is important. Indeed a large literature has grown up on this topic, addressing the nature of the technological and organizational capabilities which business firms embody and the ways they evolve over time. Another domain concerns the nature of competition in such industries, wherein innovation and diffusion affect growth and survival probabilities of heterogeneous firms, and, relatedly, the determinants of industrial structure. The processes of knowledge accumulation and diffusion involve winners and losers, changing distributions of competitive abilities across different firms, and, with that, changing industrial structures. Both the sector-specific characteristics of technologies and their degrees of maturity over their life cycles influence the patterns of industrial organization ? including of course size distributions, degrees of concentration, relative importance of incumbents and entrants, etc. This is the second set of topics which we address. Finally, in the conclusions, we briefly flag some fundamental aspects of economic growth and development as an innovation driven evolutionary process.Innovation, Technological paradigms, Technological regimes and trajectories, Evolution, Learning, Capability-based theories of the firm, Selection, Industrial dynamics, Emergent properties, Endogenous growth

A Survey of Agent-Based Modeling Practices (January 1998 to July 2008)

In the 1990s, Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) began gaining popularity and represents a departure from the more classical simulation approaches. This departure, its recent development and its increasing application by non-traditional simulation disciplines indicates the need to continuously assess the current state of ABM and identify opportunities for improvement. To begin to satisfy this need, we surveyed and collected data from 279 articles from 92 unique publication outlets in which the authors had constructed and analyzed an agent-based model. From this large data set we establish the current practice of ABM in terms of year of publication, field of study, simulation software used, purpose of the simulation, acceptable validation criteria, validation techniques and complete description of the simulation. Based on the current practice we discuss six improvements needed to advance ABM as an analysis tool. These improvements include the development of ABM specific tools that are independent of software, the development of ABM as an independent discipline with a common language that extends across domains, the establishment of expectations for ABM that match their intended purposes, the requirement of complete descriptions of the simulation so others can independently replicate the results, the requirement that all models be completely validated and the development and application of statistical and non-statistical validation techniques specifically for ABM.Agent-Based Modeling, Survey, Current Practices, Simulation Validation, Simulation Purpose

From scaling to governance of the land system: bridging ecological and economic perspectives

One of the main unresolved problems in policy making is the step from scale issues to effective governance. What is appropriate for a lower level, such as a region or location, might be considered undesirable at a global scale. Linking scaling to governance is an important issue for the improvement of current environmental management and policies. Whereas social–ecological science tends to focus on adaptive behavior and aspects of spatial ecological data, new institutional economics focuses more on levels in institutional scales and temporal dimensions. Consequently, both disciplines perceive different scaling challenges while aiming at a similar improvement of effective governance. We propose that future research needs to focus on four themes: (1) How to combine spatial properties such as extent and grain with the economic units of market and agent; (2) How to combine the different governance instruments proposed by both perspectives; (3) How to communicate the different scaling perspectives (hierarchy vs. no hierarchy) and meanings to policy makers and other stakeholders; and (4) How to deal with the non-equilibrium conditions in the real world and the disciplinary perspectives. Here, we hypothesize that a combined system perspective of both disciplines will improve our understanding of the missing link between scaling and governanc

[How] Can Pluralist Approaches to Computational Cognitive Modeling of Human Needs and Values Save our Democracies?

In our increasingly digital societies, many companies have business models that perceive users’ (or customers’) personal data as a siloed resource, owned and controlled by the data controller rather than the data subjects. Collecting and processing such a massive amount of personal data could have many negative technical, social and economic consequences, including invading people’s privacy and autonomy. As a result, regulations such as the European General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) have tried to take steps towards a better implementation of the right to digital privacy. This paper proposes that such legal acts should be accompanied by the development of complementary technical solutions such as Cognitive Personal Assistant Systems to support people to effectively manage their personal data processing on the Internet. Considering the importance and sensitivity of personal data processing, such assistant systems should not only consider their owner’s needs and values, but also be transparent, accountable and controllable. Pluralist approaches in computational cognitive modelling of human needs and values which are not bound to traditional paradigmatic borders such as cognitivism, connectionism, or enactivism, we argue, can create a balance between practicality and usefulness, on the one hand, and transparency, accountability, and controllability, on the other, while supporting and empowering humans in the digital world. Considering the threat to digital privacy as significant to contemporary democracies, the future implementation of such pluralist models could contribute to power-balance, fairness and inclusion in our societies

Scientific requirements for an engineered model of consciousness

The building of a non-natural conscious system requires more than the design of physical or virtual machines with intuitively conceived abilities, philosophically elucidated architecture or hardware homologous to an animal’s brain. Human society might one day treat a type of robot or computing system as an artificial person. Yet that would not answer scientific questions about the machine’s consciousness or otherwise. Indeed, empirical tests for consciousness are impossible because no such entity is denoted within the theoretical structure of the science of mind, i.e. psychology. However, contemporary experimental psychology can identify if a specific mental process is conscious in particular circumstances, by theory-based interpretation of the overt performance of human beings. Thus, if we are to build a conscious machine, the artificial systems must be used as a test-bed for theory developed from the existing science that distinguishes conscious from non-conscious causation in natural systems. Only such a rich and realistic account of hypothetical processes accounting for observed input/output relationships can establish whether or not an engineered system is a model of consciousness. It follows that any research project on machine consciousness needs a programme of psychological experiments on the demonstration systems and that the programme should be designed to deliver a fully detailed scientific theory of the type of artificial mind being developed – a Psychology of that Machine

Sociological and Communication-Theoretical Perspectives on the Commercialization of the Sciences

Both self-organization and organization are important for the further development of the sciences: the two dynamics condition and enable each other. Commercial and public considerations can interact and "interpenetrate" in historical organization; different codes of communication are then "recombined." However, self-organization in the symbolically generalized codes of communication can be expected to operate at the global level. The Triple Helix model allows for both a neo-institutional appreciation in terms of historical networks of university-industry-government relations and a neo-evolutionary interpretation in terms of three functions: (i) novelty production, (i) wealth generation, and (iii) political control. Using this model, one can appreciate both subdynamics. The mutual information in three dimensions enables us to measure the trade-off between organization and self-organization as a possible synergy. The question of optimization between commercial and public interests in the different sciences can thus be made empirical.Comment: Science & Education (forthcoming

Developing a diagnostic heuristic for integrated sugarcane supply and processing systems.

Doctoral Degrees. University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg.Innovation is a valuable asset that gives supply chains a competitive edge. Moreover, the adoption of innovative research recommendations in agricultural value chains and integrated sugarcane supply and processing systems (ISSPS) in particular has been relatively slow when compared with other industries such as electronics and automotive. The slow adoption is attributed to the complex, multidimensional nature of ISSPS and the perceived lack of a holistic approach when dealing with certain issues. Most of the interventions into ISSPS often view the system as characterised by tame problems hence, the widespread application of traditional operations research approaches. Integrated sugarcane supply and processing systems are, nonetheless, also characterised by wicked problems. Interventions into such contexts should therefore, embrace tame and/or wicked issues. Systemic approaches are important and have in the past identified several system-scale opportunities within ISSPS. Such interventions are multidisciplinary and employ a range of methodologies spanning across paradigms. The large number of methodologies available, however, makes choosing the right method or a combination thereof difficult. In this context, a novel overarching diagnostic heuristic for ISSPS was developed in this research. The heuristic will be used todiagnose relatively small, but pertinent ISSPS constraints and opportunities. The heuristic includes a causal model that determines and ranks linkages between the many domains that govern integrated agricultural supply and processing systems (IASPS) viz. biophysical, collaboration, culture, economics, environment, future strategy, information sharing, political forces, and structures. Furthermore, a diagnostic toolkit based on the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) was developed. The toolkit comprises a diagnostic criteria and a suite of systemic tools. The toolkit, in addition, determines thesuitability of each tool to diagnose any of the IASPS domains. Overall, the diagnostic criteria include accessibility, interactiveness, transparency, iterativeness, feedback, cause-and-effect logic, and time delays. The tools considered for the toolkit were current reality trees, fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs), network analysis approaches, rich pictures (RP), stock and flow diagrams, cause and effect diagrams (CEDs), and causal loop diagrams (CLDs). Results from the causal model indicate that collaboration, structure and information sharing had a high direct leverage over the other domains as these were associated with a larger number of linkages. Collaboration and structure further provided dynamic leverage as these were also part of feedback loops. Political forces and the culture domain in contrast, provided lowleverage as these domains were only directly linked to collaboration. It was further revealed that each tool provides a different facet to complexity hence, the need for methodological pluralism. All the tools except RP could be applied, to a certain extent, across both appreciation and analysis criteria. Rich pictures do not have causal analysis capabilities viz. cause-and-effect logic, time delays and feedback. Stock and flow diagrams and CLDs conversely, met all criteria. All the diagnostic tools in the toolkit could be used across all the system domains except for FCMs. Fuzzy cognitive maps are explicitly subjective and their contribution lies outside the objective world. Caution should therefore be practiced when FCMs areapplied within the biophysical domain. The heuristic is only an aid to decision making. The decision to select a tool or a combination thereof remains with the user(s). Even though the heuristic was demonstrated at Mhlume sugarcane milling area, it is recommended that other areas be considered for future research. The heuristic itself should continuously be updated with criteria, tools and other domain dimensions