A Real Option Dynamic Decision (rodd) Framework For Operational Innovations

Changing the business operations and adopting new operational innovations, have become key features for a business solution approach. However, there are challenges for developing innovative operations due to a lack of the proper decision analysis tools, lack of understanding the impacts transition will have on operational models, and the time limits of the innovation life cycle. The cases of business failure in operational innovation (i.e. Eastman Kodak Company and Borders Group Inc.,) support the need for an investment decision framework. This research aims to develop a Real Option Dynamic Decision (RODD) framework for decision making, to support decision makers for operational innovation investments. This development will help the business/organization to recognize the need for change in operations, and quickly respond to market threats and customer needs. The RODD framework is developed by integrating a strategic investment method (Real Options Analysis), management transition evaluation (Matrix of Change), competitiveness evaluation (Lotka-Volterra), and dynamic behavior modeling (System Dynamics Modeling) to analyze the feasibility of the transformation, and to assess return on investment of new operation schemes. Two case studies are used: United Parcel Service of America, Inc., and Firefighting Operations to validate the RODD framework. The results show that the benefits of this decisionmaking framework are (1) to provide increased flexibility, improved predictions, and more information to decision makers; (2) to assess the value alternative option with regards to uncertainty and competitiveness; (3) to reduce complexity; and (4) to gain a new understanding of operational innovations

The effect of Delayed Dynamics on the Stability of Ecosystems

Differential Equations and random matrix theory have found applications in many fields, ranging from physics, number theory and ecology. Fifty years ago, in a seminal article entitled "Will a Large Complex System be Stable?", Robert May showed that increasingly large or complex ecological networks have negligibly small probability to be stable. However, from field studies in ecology experimental evidences point on the opposite direction: large and complex ecosystems seem to be stable. This apparent contradiction is known as the Complexity-Stability paradox. May and other scientists analyzed large networks in which species interact at random and studied analytically the asymptotic stability of such systems as a function of the number of species and the number of interactions through the use of random matrix theory. This master thesis is aimed to critically review these results and show how the introduction of delay in ecosystem population dynamics may have a strong impact on ecosystem dynamics and change important aspects of the Complexity-Stability paradox

Chaos to Permanence - Through Control Theory

Work by Cushing et al. [18] and Kot et al. [60] demonstrate that chaotic behavior does occur in biological systems. We demonstrate that chaotic behavior can enable the survival/thriving of the species involved in a system. We adopt the concepts of persistence/permanence as measures of survival/thriving of the species [35]. We utilize present chaotic behavior and a control algorithm based on [66, 72] to push a non-permanent system into permanence. The algorithm uses the chaotic orbits present in the system to obtain the desired state. We apply the algorithm to a Lotka-Volterra type two-prey, one-predator model from [30], a ratio-dependent one-prey, two-predator model from [35] and a simple prey-specialist predator-generalist predator (for ex: plant-insect pest-spider) interaction model [67] and demonstrate its effectiveness in taking advantage of chaotic behavior to achieve a desirable state for all species involved

Chaos to Permanence-Through Control Theory

Work by Cushing et al. \cite{Cushing} and Kot et al. \cite{Kot} demonstrate that chaotic behavior does occur in biological systems. We demonstrate that chaotic behavior can enable the survival/thriving of the species involved in a system. We adopt the concepts of persistence/permanence as measures of survival/thriving of the species \cite{EVG}. We utilize present chaotic behavior and a control algorithm based on \cite{Vincent97,Vincent2001} to push a non-permanent system into permanence. The algorithm uses the chaotic orbits present in the system to obtain the desired state. We apply the algorithm to a Lotka-Volterra type two-prey, one-predator model from \cite{Harvesting}, a ratio-dependent one-prey, two-predator model from \cite{EVG} and a simple prey-specialist predator-generalist predator (for ex: plant-insect pest-spider) interaction model \cite{Upad} and demonstrate its effectiveness in taking advantage of chaotic behavior to achieve a desirable state for all species involved

The stability of model ecosystems

Ecologists would like to understand how complexity persists in nature. In this thesis I have taken two fundamentally different routes to study ecosystem stability of model ecosystems: classical community ecology and classical population ecology. In community ecology models, we can study the mathematical mechanisms of stability in general, large model ecosystems. In population ecology models, fewer species are studied but greater detail of species interactions can be incorporated. Within these alternative contexts, this thesis contributes to two consuming issues concerning the stability of ecological systems: the ecosystem stability-complexity debate; and the causes of cyclic population dynamics. One of the major unresolved issues in community ecology is the relationship between ecosystem stability and complexity. In 1958 Charles Elton made the conjecture that the stability of an ecological system was coupled to its complexity and this could be a “wise principle of co-existence between man and nature” with which ecologists could argue the case for the conservation of nature for all species, including man. The earliest and simplest model systems were randomly constructed and exhibited a negative association between stability and complexity. This finding sparked the stability-complexity debate and initiated the search for organising principles that enhanced stability in real ecosystems. One of the universal laws of ecology is that ecosystems contain many rare and few common species. In this thesis, I present analytical arguments and numerical results to show that the stability of an ecosystem can increase with complexity when the abundance distribution is characterized by a skew towards many rare species. This work adds to the growing number of conditions under which the negative stability - complexity relationship can been inverted in theoretical studies. While there is growing evidence that the stability-complexity debate is progressing towards a resolution, community ecology has become increasingly subject to major criticism. A long-standing criticism is the reliance on local stability analysis. There is growing recognition that a global property called permanence is a more satisfactory definition of ecosystem stability because it tests only whether species can coexist. Here I identify and explain a positive correlation between the probability of local stability and permanence, which suggests local stability is a better measure of species coexistence than previously thought. While this offers some relief, remaining issues cause the stability-complexity debate to evade clear resolution and leave community ecology in a poor position to argue for the conservation of natural diversity for the benefit of all species. In classical population ecology, a major unresolved issue is the cause of non-equilibrium population dynamics. In this thesis, I use models to study the drivers of cyclic dynamics in Scottish populations of mountain hares (Lepus timidus), for the first time in this system. Field studies currently favour the hypothesis that parasitism by a nematode Trichostrongylus retortaeformis drives the hare cycles, and theory predicts that the interaction should induce cycling. Initially I used a simple, strategic host-parasite model parameterised using available empirical data to test the superficial concordance between theory and observation. I find that parasitism could not account for hare cycles. This verdict leaves three options: either the parameterisation was inadequate, there were missing important biological details or simply that parasites do not drive host cycles. Regarding the first option, reliable information for some hare-parasite model parameters was lacking. Using a rejection-sampling approach motivated by Bayesian methods, I identify the most likely parameter set to predict observed dynamics. The results imply that the current formulation of the hare-parasite model can only generate realistic dynamics when parasite effects are significantly larger than current empirical estimates, and I conclude it is likely that the model contains an inadequate level of detail. The simple strategic model was mathematically elegant and allowed mathematical concepts to be employed in analysis, but the model was biologically naïve. The second model is the antipode of the first, an individual based model (IBM) steeped in biological reality that can only be studied by simulation. Whilst most highly detailed tactical models are developed as a predictive tool, I instead structurally perturb the IBM to study the ecological processes that may drive population cycles in mountain hares. The model allows delayed responses to life history by linking maternal body size and parasite infection to the future survival and fecundity of offspring. By systematically removing model structure I show that these delayed life history effects are weakly destabilising and allow parameters to lie closer to empirical estimates to generate observed hare population cycles. In a third model I structurally modify the simple strategic host-parasite model to make it spatially explicit by including diffusion of mountain hares and corresponding advection of parasites (transportation with host). From initial simulations I show that the spatially extended host-parasite equations are able to generate periodic travelling waves (PTWs) of hare and parasite abundance. This is a newly documented behaviour in these widely used host-parasite equations. While PTWs are a new potential scenario under which cyclic hare dynamics could be explained, further mathematical development is required to determine whether adding space can generate realistic dynamics with parameters that lie closer to empirical estimates. In the general thesis discussion I deliberate on whether a hare-parasite model has been identified which can be considered the right balance between abstraction and relevant detail for this system

Detecting event-related recurrences by symbolic analysis: Applications to human language processing

Quasistationarity is ubiquitous in complex dynamical systems. In brain dynamics there is ample evidence that event-related potentials reflect such quasistationary states. In order to detect them from time series, several segmentation techniques have been proposed. In this study we elaborate a recent approach for detecting quasistationary states as recurrence domains by means of recurrence analysis and subsequent symbolisation methods. As a result, recurrence domains are obtained as partition cells that can be further aligned and unified for different realisations. We address two pertinent problems of contemporary recurrence analysis and present possible solutions for them.Comment: 24 pages, 6 figures. Draft version to appear in Proc Royal Soc

Effects of stage structure on coexistence: mixed benefits

The properties of competition models where all individuals are identical are relatively well-understood; however, juveniles and adults can experience or generate competition differently. We study here less well-known structured competition models in discrete time that allow multiple life history parameters to depend on adult or juvenile population densities. A numerical study with Ricker density-dependence suggested that when competition coefficients acting on juvenile survival and fertility reflect opposite competitive hierarchies, stage structure could foster coexistence. We revisit and expand those results. First, through a Beverton-Holt two-species juvenile-adult model, we confirm that these findings do not depend on the specifics of density-dependence or life cycles, and obtain analytical expressions explaining how this coexistence emerging from stage structure can occur. Second, we show using a community-level sensitivity analysis that such emergent coexistence is robust to perturbations of parameter values. Finally, we ask whether these results extend from two to many species, using simulations. We show that they do not, as coexistence emerging from stage structure is only seen for very similar life-history parameters. Such emergent coexistence is therefore not likely to be a key mechanism of coexistence in very diverse ecosystems, although it may contribute to explaining coexistence of certain pairs of intensely competing species

Local enrichment and its nonlocal consequences for victim-exploiter metapopulations

The stabilizing effects of local enrichment are revisited. Diffusively coupled host-parasitoid and predator-prey metapopulations are shown to admit a stable fixed point, limit cycle or stable torus with a rich bifurcation structure. A linear toy model that yields many of the basic qualitative features of this system is presented. The further nonlinear complications are analyzed in the framework of the marginally stable Lotka-Volterra model, and the continuous time analog of the unstable, host-parasitoid Nicholson-Bailey model. The dependence of the results on the migration rate and level of spatial variations is examined, and the possibility of "nonlocal" effect of enrichment, where local enrichment induces stable oscillations at a distance, is studied. A simple method for basic estimation of the relative importance of this effect in experimental systems is presented and exemplified.Comment: 25 pages, 13 figures, to appear physica D 200