The Laplace transform of the lognormal distribution

We study the analytical properties of the Laplace transform of the lognormal distribution. Two integral expressions for the analytic continuation of the Laplace transform of the lognormal distribution are provided, one of which takes the form of a Mellin-Barnes integral. As a corollary, we obtain an integral expression for the characteristic function; we show that the integral expression derived by Leipnik in [11] is incorrect. We present two approximations for the Laplace transform of the lognormal distribution, both valid in $\mathbb{C} \setminus(-\infty,0]$. In the last section, we discuss how one may use our results to compute the density of a sum of independent lognormal random variables.Comment: 18 pages, 2 figure

Earthquake Forecasting Based on Data Assimilation: Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Renewal Processes

In meteorology, engineering and computer sciences, data assimilation is routinely employed as the optimal way to combine noisy observations with prior model information for obtaining better estimates of a state, and thus better forecasts, than can be achieved by ignoring data uncertainties. Earthquake forecasting, too, suffers from measurement errors and partial model information and may thus gain significantly from data assimilation. We present perhaps the first fully implementable data assimilation method for earthquake forecasts generated by a point-process model of seismicity. We test the method on a synthetic and pedagogical example of a renewal process observed in noise, which is relevant to the seismic gap hypothesis, models of characteristic earthquakes and to recurrence statistics of large quakes inferred from paleoseismic data records. To address the non-Gaussian statistics of earthquakes, we use sequential Monte Carlo methods, a set of flexible simulation-based methods for recursively estimating arbitrary posterior distributions. We perform extensive numerical simulations to demonstrate the feasibility and benefits of forecasting earthquakes based on data assimilation. In particular, we show that the forecasts based on the Optimal Sampling Importance Resampling (OSIR) particle filter are significantly better than those of a benchmark forecast that ignores uncertainties in the observed event times. We use the marginal data likelihood, a measure of the explanatory power of a model in the presence of data errors, to estimate parameters and compare models.Comment: 55 pages, 15 figure

Evolution of the cosmological density distribution function

We present a new calculation for the evolution of the 1-point Probability Distribution Function (PDF) of the cosmological density field based on an exact statistical treatment. Using the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation and second-order Eulerian perturbation theory we propagate the initial density distribution into the nonlinear regime. Our calculations yield the moment generating function, allowing a straightforward derivation of the skewness of the PDF to second order. We find a new dependency on the initial perturbation spectrum. We compare our results with other approximations to the 1-pt PDF, and with N-body simulations. We find that our distribution accurately models the evolution of the 1-pt PDF of dark matter.Comment: 7 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Efficient and accurate log-L\'evy approximations to L\'evy driven LIBOR models

The LIBOR market model is very popular for pricing interest rate derivatives, but is known to have several pitfalls. In addition, if the model is driven by a jump process, then the complexity of the drift term is growing exponentially fast (as a function of the tenor length). In this work, we consider a L\'evy-driven LIBOR model and aim at developing accurate and efficient log-L\'evy approximations for the dynamics of the rates. The approximations are based on truncation of the drift term and Picard approximation of suitable processes. Numerical experiments for FRAs, caps, swaptions and sticky ratchet caps show that the approximations perform very well. In addition, we also consider the log-L\'evy approximation of annuities, which offers good approximations for high volatility regimes.Comment: 32 pages, 21 figures. Added an example of a path-dependent option (sticky ratchet caplet). Forthcoming in the Journal of Computational Financ

A New Asymptotic Analysis Technique for Diversity Receptions Over Correlated Lognormal Fading Channels

Prior asymptotic performance analyses are based on the series expansion of the moment-generating function (MGF) or the probability density function (PDF) of channel coefficients. However, these techniques fail for lognormal fading channels because the Taylor series of the PDF of a lognormal random variable is zero at the origin and the MGF does not have an explicit form. Although lognormal fading model has been widely applied in wireless communications and free-space optical communications, few analytical tools are available to provide elegant performance expressions for correlated lognormal channels. In this work, we propose a novel framework to analyze the asymptotic outage probabilities of selection combining (SC), equal-gain combining (EGC) and maximum-ratio combining (MRC) over equally correlated lognormal fading channels. Based on these closed-form results, we reveal the followings: i) the outage probability of EGC or MRC becomes an infinitely small quantity compared to that of SC at large signal-to-noise ratio (SNR); ii) channel correlation can result in an infinite performance loss at large SNR. More importantly, the analyses reveal insights into the long-standing problem of performance analyses over correlated lognormal channels at high SNR, and circumvent the time-consuming Monte Carlo simulation and numerical integration

Mixed Finite Element Analysis of Lognormal Diffusion and Multilevel Monte Carlo Methods

This work is motivated by the need to develop efficient tools for uncertainty quantification in subsurface flows associated with radioactive waste disposal studies. We consider single phase flow problems in random porous media described by correlated lognormal distributions. We are interested in the error introduced by a finite element discretisation of these problems. In contrast to several recent works on the analysis of standard nodal finite element discretisations, we consider here mass-conservative lowest order Raviart-Thomas mixed finite elements. This is very important since local mass conservation is highly desirable in realistic groundwater flow problems. Due to the limited spatial regularity and the lack of uniform ellipticity and boundedness of the operator the analysis is non-trivial in the presence of lognormal random fields. We establish finite element error bounds for Darcy velocity and pressure, as well as for a more accurate recovered pressure approximation. We then apply the error bounds to prove convergence of the multilevel Monte Carlo algorithm for estimating statistics of these quantities. Moreover, we prove convergence for a class of bounded, linear functionals of the Darcy velocity. An important special case is the approximation of the effective permeability in a 2D flow cell. We perform numerical experiments to confirm the convergence results

Multilevel path simulation for weak approximation schemes

In this paper we discuss the possibility of using multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods for weak approximation schemes. It turns out that by means of a simple coupling between consecutive time discretisation levels, one can achieve the same complexity gain as under the presence of a strong convergence. We exemplify this general idea in the case of weak Euler scheme for L\'evy driven stochastic differential equations, and show that, given a weak convergence of order $\alpha\geq 1/2,$ the complexity of the corresponding "weak" MLMC estimate is of order $\varepsilon^{-2}\log ^{2}(\varepsilon).$ The numerical performance of the new "weak" MLMC method is illustrated by several numerical examples

Weighted Sum of Correlated Lognormals: Convolution Integral Solution

Probability density function (pdf) for sum of n correlated lognormal variables is deducted as a special convolution integral. Pdf for weighted sums (where weights can be any real numbers) is also presented. The result for four dimensions was checked by Monte Carlo simulation

Interest Rate Model Calibration Using Semidefinite Programming

We show that, for the purpose of pricing Swaptions, the Swap rate and the corresponding Forward rates can be considered lognormal under a single martingale measure. Swaptions can then be priced as options on a basket of lognormal assets and an approximation formula is derived for such options. This formula is centered around a Black-Scholes price with an appropriate volatility, plus a correction term that can be interpreted as the expected tracking error. The calibration problem can then be solved very efficiently using semidefinite programming

How Much Data Do You Need? An Operational, Pre-Asymptotic Metric for Fat-tailedness

This note presents an operational measure of fat-tailedness for univariate probability distributions, in $[0,1]$ where 0 is maximally thin-tailed (Gaussian) and 1 is maximally fat-tailed. Among others,1) it helps assess the sample size needed to establish a comparative $n$ needed for statistical significance, 2) allows practical comparisons across classes of fat-tailed distributions, 3) helps understand some inconsistent attributes of the lognormal, pending on the parametrization of its scale parameter. The literature is rich for what concerns asymptotic behavior, but there is a large void for finite values of $n$, those needed for operational purposes. Conventional measures of fat-tailedness, namely 1) the tail index for the power law class, and 2) Kurtosis for finite moment distributions fail to apply to some distributions, and do not allow comparisons across classes and parametrization, that is between power laws outside the Levy-Stable basin, or power laws to distributions in other classes, or power laws for different number of summands. How can one compare a sum of 100 Student T distributed random variables with 3 degrees of freedom to one in a Levy-Stable or a Lognormal class? How can one compare a sum of 100 Student T with 3 degrees of freedom to a single Student T with 2 degrees of freedom? We propose an operational and heuristic measure that allow us to compare $n$-summed independent variables under all distributions with finite first moment. The method is based on the rate of convergence of the Law of Large numbers for finite sums, $n$-summands specifically. We get either explicit expressions or simulation results and bounds for the lognormal, exponential, Pareto, and the Student T distributions in their various calibrations --in addition to the general Pearson classes