Time Inconsistency, Sophistication, and Commitment An Experimental Study

We experimentally study the relationship between time inconsistency, sophistication about time inconsistency, and self-commitment. Previous research has interpreted demand for commitment devices as evidence for the sophistication of a time-inconsistent decision-maker. In our laboratory experiment, we attempt to measure sophistication directly by way of a cognitive test. We then test the hypothesis that people who are both time-inconsistent and show high cognitive capacity take up commitment devices when offered in the strategic game between their current and their future self. For experimental laboratory commitment choices, we cannot detect a moderating effect of cognition on commitment demand of time-inconsistent subjects. However, we find that the existence of time-inconsistent preferences and sophistication (proxied by cognitive performance) can predict the demand for savings commitment in our hypothetical survey vignette question.Series: Department of Strategy and Innovation Working Paper Serie

In Honor of Matthew Rabin: Winner of the John Bates Clark Medal

Although there is some evidence that Matthew Rabin existed before 1990, we had the pleasure of discovering him for ourselves when, in the early 1990s, he sent each of us a copy of his manuscript "Incorporating Fairness into Game Theory and Economics" [2]. Matthew was, at this time, an assistant professor in Berkeley's economics department, having recently finished his graduate training at MIT. The paper was remarkable in many ways, and it induced us both to call around and ask: "Who is this guy Rabin?" Now, just a decade later, we find ourselves writing an article in honor of his winning the John Bates Clark award. So, who is this guy

Highbrow Films Gather Dust: A Study of Dynamic Inconsistency and Online DVD Rentals

We report on a field study demonstrating systematic differences between the preferences people anticipate they will have over a series of options in the future and their subsequent revealed preferences over those options. Using a novel panel data set, we analyze the film rental and return patterns of a sample of online DVD rental customers over a period of four months. We predict and find that people are more likely to rent DVDs in one order and return them in the reverse order when should DVDs (e.g., documentaries) are rented before want DVDs (e.g., action films). This effect is sizeable in magnitude, with a 2% increase in the probability of a reversal in preferences (from a baseline rate of 12%) ensuing if the first of two sequentially rented movies has more should and fewer want characteristics than the second film. Similarly, we also predict and find that should DVDs are held significantly longer than want DVDs within-customer. Finally, we find that as the same customers gain more experience with online DVD rentals, their "dynamic inconsistency" is attenuated. We interpret our results as evidence that myopia has a meaningful impact on decisions in the field and that people learn about their myopia with experience, allowing them to curb its influence.want/should, intrapersonal conflict, dynamic inconsistency, myopia

Which Measures of Time Preference Best Predict Outcomes? Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment

Economists and psychologists have devised numerous instruments to measure time preferences and have generated a rich literature examining the extent to which time preferences predict important outcomes; however, we still do not know which measures work best. With the help of a large sample of non-student participants (truck driver trainees) and administrative data on outcomes, we gather four different time preference measures and test the extent to which they predict both on their own and when they are all forced to compete head-to-head. Our results suggest that the now familiar (β, δ) formulation of present bias and exponential discounting predicts best, especially when both parameters are used.time preference, impatience, discounting, present bias, field experiment, trucker

Angler Heterogeneity and the Species-Specific Demand for Marine Recreational Fishing

In this study we assess the viability of single-species recreation demand models given commonly available data sets. Using the 2000 MRFSS southeast intercept data combined with the economic add-on, we determine that the MRFSS data will support only a few species-specific recreation demand models. Considering species of management interest in the southeast, we focus on dolphin, king mackerel, red snapper and red drum. We examine single-species recreational fishing behavior using random utility models of demand. We explore mixed logit (i.e., random parameter) logit and finite mixture (i.e., latent class logit) models for dealing with angler heterogeneity. We compare these to the commonly used conditional and nested logit models in terms of the value of catching (and keeping) one additional fish. Mixed logit models illustrate that the value of catch can be highly heterogeneous and, in some cases, can include both positive and negative values. The finite mixture model generates value estimates that were some times strikingly different than conditional, nested and mixed logit models. Preference heterogeneity is significant within the MRFSS data. We find evidence that single-species models outperform multiple species models and recreational values differ. Key Words: marine recreational fishing, single-species demand, preference heterogeneity models