New Liftable Classes for First-Order Probabilistic Inference

Abstract Statistical relational models provide compact encodings of probabilistic dependencies in relational domains, but result in highly intractable graphical models. The goal of lifted inference is to carry out probabilistic inference without needing to reason about each individual separately, by instead treating exchangeable, undistinguished objects as a whole. In this paper, we study the domain recursion inference rule, which, despite its central role in early theoretical results on domain-lifted inference, has later been believed redundant. We show that this rule is more powerful than expected, and in fact significantly extends the range of models for which lifted inference runs in time polynomial in the number of individuals in the domain. This includes an open problem called S4, the symmetric transitivity model, and a first-order logic encoding of the birthday paradox. We further identify new classes S 2 FO 2 and S 2 RU of domain-liftable theories, which respectively subsume FO 2 and recursively unary theories, the largest classes of domain-liftable theories known so far, and show that using domain recursion can achieve exponential speedup even in theories that cannot fully be lifted with the existing set of inference rules

Quantified Markov logic networks

Markov Logic Networks (MLNs) are well-suited for expressing statistics such as “with high probability a smoker knows another smoker” but not for expressing statements such as “there is a smoker who knows most other smokers”, which is necessary for modeling, e.g. influencers in social networks. To overcome this shortcoming, we study quantified MLNs which generalize MLNs by introducing statistical universal quantifiers, allowing to express also the latter type of statistics in a principled way. Our main technical contribution is to show that the standard reasoning tasks in quantified MLNs, maximum a posteriori and marginal inference, can be reduced to their respective MLN counterparts in polynomial time