Using reliability analysis to support decision making in phased mission systems

Due to the environments in which they will operate, future autonomous systems must be capable of reconfiguring quickly and safely following faults or environmental changes. Past research has shown how, by considering autonomous systems to perform phased missions, reliability analysis can support decision making by allowing comparison of the probability of success of different missions following reconfiguration. Binary Decision Diagrams (BDDs) offer fast, accurate reliability analysis that could contribute to real-time decision making. However, phased mission analysis using existing BDD models is too slow to contribute to the instant decisions needed in time-critical situations. This paper investigates two aspects of BDD models that affect analysis speed: variable ordering and quantification efficiency. Variable ordering affects BDD size, which directly affects analysis speed. Here, a new ordering scheme is proposed for use in the context of a decision making process. Variables are ordered before a mission and reordering is unnecessary no matter how the mission configuration changes. Three BDD models are proposed to address the efficiency and accuracy of existing models. The advantages of the developed ordering scheme and BDD models are demonstrated in the context of their application within a reliability analysis methodology used to support decision making in an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

Automated system design optimisation

The focus of this thesis is to develop a generic approach for solving reliability design optimisation problems which could be applicable to a diverse range of real engineering systems. The basic problem in optimal reliability design of a system is to explore the means of improving the system reliability within the bounds of available resources. Improving the reliability reduces the likelihood of system failure. The consequences of system failure can vary from minor inconvenience and cost to significant economic loss and personal injury. However any improvements made to the system are subject to the availability of resources, which are very often limited. The objective of the design optimisation problem analysed in this thesis is to minimise system unavailability (or unreliability if an unrepairable system is analysed) through the manipulation and assessment of all possible design alterations available, which are subject to constraints on resources and/or system performance requirements. This thesis describes a genetic algorithm-based technique developed to solve the optimisation problem. Since an explicit mathematical form can not be formulated to evaluate the objective function, the system unavailability (unreliability) is assessed using the fault tree method. Central to the optimisation algorithm are newly developed fault tree modification patterns (FTMPs). They are employed here to construct one fault tree representing all possible designs investigated, from the initial system design specified along with the design choices. This is then altered to represent the individual designs in question during the optimisation process. Failure probabilities for specified design cases are quantified by employing Binary Decision Diagrams (BDDs). A computer programme has been developed to automate the application of the optimisation approach to standard engineering safety systems. Its practicality is demonstrated through the consideration of two systems of increasing complexity; first a High Integrity Protection System (HIPS) followed by a Fire Water Deluge System (FWDS). The technique is then further-developed and applied to solve problems of multi-phased mission systems. Two systems are considered; first an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and secondly a military vessel. The final part of this thesis focuses on continuing the development process by adapting the method to solve design optimisation problems for multiple multi-phased mission systems. Its application is demonstrated by considering an advanced UAV system involving multiple multi-phased flight missions. The applications discussed prove that the technique progressively developed in this thesis enables design optimisation problems to be solved for systems with different levels of complexity. A key contribution of this thesis is the development of a novel generic optimisation technique, embedding newly developed FTMPs, which is capable of optimising the reliability design for potentially any engineering system. Another key and novel contribution of this work is the capability to analyse and provide optimal design solutions for multiple multi-phase mission systems. Keywords: optimisation, system design, multi-phased mission system, reliability, genetic algorithm, fault tree, binary decision diagra

A Hierarchical Approach for Dynamic Fault Trees Solution Through Semi-Markov Process

Dynamic fault tree (DFT) is a top-down deductive technique extended to model systems with complex failure behaviors and interactions. In two last decades, different methods have been applied to improve its capabilities, such as computational complexity reduction, modularization, intricate failure distribution, and reconfiguration. This paper uses semi-Markov process (SMP) theorem for DFT solution with the motivation of obviating the model state-explosion, considering nonexponential failure distribution through a hierarchical solution. In addition, in the proposed method, a universal SMP for static and dynamic gates is introduced, which can generalize dynamic behaviors like functional dependencies, sequences, priorities, and spares in a single model. The efficiency of the method regarding precision and competitiveness with commercial tools, repeated events consideration, computational complexity reduction, nonexponential failure distribution consideration, and repairable events in DFT is studied by a number of examples, and the results are then compared to those of the selected existing methods

Managed access dependability for critical services in wireless inter domain environment

The Information and Communications Technology (ICT) industry has through the last decades changed and still continues to affect the way people interact with each other and how they access and share information, services and applications in a global market characterized by constant change and evolution. For a networked and highly dynamic society, with consumers and market actors providing infrastructure, networks, services and applications, the mutual dependencies of failure free operations are getting more and more complex. Service Level Agreements (SLAs) between the various actors and users may be used to describe the offerings along with price schemes and promises regarding the delivered quality. However, there is no guarantee for failure free operations whatever efforts and means deployed. A system fails for a number of reasons, but automatic fault handling mechanisms and operational procedures may be used to decrease the probability for service interruptions. The global number of mobile broadband Internet subscriptions surpassed the number of broadband subscriptions over fixed technologies in 2010. The User Equipment (UE) has become a powerful device supporting a number of wireless access technologies and the always best connected opportunities have become a reality. Some services, e.g. health care, smart power grid control, surveillance/monitoring etc. called critical services in this thesis, put high requirements on service dependability. A definition of dependability is the ability to deliver services that can justifiably be trusted. For critical services, the access networks become crucial factors for achieving high dependability. A major challenge in a multi operator, multi technology wireless environment is the mobility of the user that necessitates handovers according to the physical movement. In this thesis it is proposed an approach for how to optimize the dependability for critical services in multi operator, multi technology wireless environment. This approach allows predicting the service availability and continuity at real-time. Predictions of the optimal service availability and continuity are considered crucial for critical services. To increase the dependability for critical services dual homing is proposed where the use of combinations of access points, possibly owned by different operators and using different technologies, are optimized for the specific location and movement of the user. A central part of the thesis is how to ensure the disjointedness of physical and logical resources so important for utilizing the dependability increase potential with dual homing. To address the interdependency issues between physical and logical resources, a study of Operations, Administrations, and Maintenance (OA&M) processes related to the access network of a commercial Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM)/Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) operator was performed. The insight obtained by the study provided valuable information of the inter woven dependencies between different actors in the delivery chain of services. Based on the insight gained from the study of OA&M processes a technological neutral information model of physical and logical resources in the access networks is proposed. The model is used for service availability and continuity prediction and to unveil interdependencies between resources for the infrastructure. The model is proposed as an extension of the Media Independent Handover (MIH) framework. A field trial in a commercial network was conducted to verify the feasibility in retrieving the model related information from the operators' Operational Support Systems (OSSs) and to emulate the extension and usage of the MIH framework. In the thesis it is proposed how measurement reports from UE and signaling in networks are used to define virtual cells as part of the proposed extension of the MIH framework. Virtual cells are limited geographical areas where the radio conditions are homogeneous. Virtual cells have radio coverage from a number of access points. A Markovian model is proposed for prediction of the service continuity of a dual homed critical service, where both the infrastructure and radio links are considered. A dependability gain is obtained by choosing a global optimal sequence of access points. Great emphasizes have been on developing computational e cient techniques and near-optimal solutions considered important for being able to predict service continuity at real-time for critical services. The proposed techniques to obtain the global optimal sequence of access points may be used by handover and multi homing mechanisms/protocols for timely handover decisions and access point selections. With the proposed extension of the MIH framework a global optimal sequence of access points providing the highest reliability may be predicted at real-time