Pascal’s wager: tracking an intended reader in the structure of the argument

Pascal’s wager is the name of an argument in favor of belief in God presented by Blaise Pascal in §233 of Thoughts. Ian Hacking (1972) pointed out that Pascal’s text involves three different versions of the argument. This paper proceeds from this identification, but it concerns an examination of the rhetorical strategy realized by Pascal’s argumentation. The final form of Pascal’s argument is considered as a product that could be established only through a specific process of persuasion led with respect to an intended reader with a particular set of initial beliefs. The text uses insights from the pragma‐dialectical approach to argumentation, especially the concept of rhetorical effectiveness of particular choices from the topical potential. The argumentation structure of Pascal’s wager is considered to be a reflection of the anticipated course of dialogue with the reader critically testing the sustainability of Pascal’s standpoint “You should believe in God”. Based on the argumentation reconstruction of three versions of the argument, Pascal’s idea of opponent/audience is identified. A rhetorical analysis of the effects of his argumentative strategy is proposed. The analysis is based on two perspectives on Pascal’s argument: it examines the strategy implemented consistently by all arguments and the strategy of a formulation of different versions of the wager

Towards a cross-correlation approach to strong-field dynamics in Black Hole spacetimes

The qualitative and quantitative understanding of near-horizon gravitational dynamics in the strong-field regime represents a challenge both at a fundamental level and in astrophysical applications. Recent advances in numerical relativity and in the geometric characterization of black hole horizons open new conceptual and technical avenues into the problem. We discuss here a research methodology in which spacetime dynamics is probed through the cross-correlation of geometric quantities constructed on the black hole horizon and on null infinity. These two hypersurfaces respond to evolving gravitational fields in the bulk, providing canonical "test screens" in a "scattering"-like perspective onto spacetime dynamics. More specifically, we adopt a 3+1 Initial Value Problem approach to the construction of generic spacetimes and discuss the role and properties of dynamical trapping horizons as canonical inner "screens" in this context. We apply these ideas and techniques to the study of the recoil dynamics in post-merger binary black holes, an important issue in supermassive galactic black hole mergers.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figures, contribution to the proceedings volume of the Spanish Relativity Meeting ERE2011: "Towards new paradigms", Madrid, Spain, 29 Aug-2 Sep 201

Cylindrically symmetric Green’s function approach for modeling the crystal growth morphology of ice

We describe a front-tracking Green’s function approach to modeling cylindrically symmetric crystal growth. This method is simple to implement, and with little computer power can adequately model a wide range of physical situations. We apply the method to modeling the hexagonal prism growth of ice crystals, which is governed primarily by diffusion along with anisotropic surface kinetic processes. From ice crystal growth observations in air, we derive measurements of the kinetic growth coefficients for the basal and prism faces as a function of temperature, for supersaturations near the water saturation level. These measurements are interpreted in the context of a model for the nucleation and growth of ice, in which the growth dynamics are dominated by the structure of a disordered layer on the ice surfaces

A Dynamic Game Model of Collective Choice in Multi-Agent Systems

Inspired by successful biological collective decision mechanisms such as honey bees searching for a new colony or the collective navigation of fish schools, we consider a mean field games (MFG)-like scenario where a large number of agents have to make a choice among a set of different potential target destinations. Each individual both influences and is influenced by the group's decision, as well as the mean trajectory of all the agents. The model can be interpreted as a stylized version of opinion crystallization in an election for example. The agents' biases are dictated first by their initial spatial position and, in a subsequent generalization of the model, by a combination of initial position and a priori individual preference. The agents have linear dynamics and are coupled through a modified form of quadratic cost. Fixed point based finite population equilibrium conditions are identified and associated existence conditions are established. In general multiple equilibria may exist and the agents need to know all initial conditions to compute them precisely. However, as the number of agents increases sufficiently, we show that 1) the computed fixed point equilibria qualify as epsilon Nash equilibria, 2) agents no longer require all initial conditions to compute the equilibria but rather can do so based on a representative probability distribution of these conditions now viewed as random variables. Numerical results are reported

Solving Einstein's Equations With Dual Coordinate Frames

A method is introduced for solving Einstein's equations using two distinct coordinate systems. The coordinate basis vectors associated with one system are used to project out components of the metric and other fields, in analogy with the way fields are projected onto an orthonormal tetrad basis. These field components are then determined as functions of a second independent coordinate system. The transformation to the second coordinate system can be thought of as a mapping from the original ``inertial'' coordinate system to the computational domain. This dual-coordinate method is used to perform stable numerical evolutions of a black-hole spacetime using the generalized harmonic form of Einstein's equations in coordinates that rotate with respect to the inertial frame at infinity; such evolutions are found to be generically unstable using a single rotating coordinate frame. The dual-coordinate method is also used here to evolve binary black-hole spacetimes for several orbits. The great flexibility of this method allows comoving coordinates to be adjusted with a feedback control system that keeps the excision boundaries of the holes within their respective apparent horizons.Comment: Updated to agree with published versio