5,495 research outputs found

    Introduction to the special issue on neural networks in financial engineering

    Get PDF
    There are several phases that an emerging field goes through before it reaches maturity, and computational finance is no exception. There is usually a trigger for the birth of the field. In our case, new techniques such as neural networks, significant progress in computing technology, and the need for results that rely on more realistic assumptions inspired new researchers to revisit the traditional problems of finance, problems that have often been tackled by introducing simplifying assumptions in the past. The result has been a wealth of new approaches to these time-honored problems, with significant improvements in many cases

    A comparison of univariate methods for forecasting electricity demand up to a day ahead

    Get PDF
    This empirical paper compares the accuracy of six univariate methods for short-term electricity demand forecasting for lead times up to a day ahead. The very short lead times are of particular interest as univariate methods are often replaced by multivariate methods for prediction beyond about six hours ahead. The methods considered include the recently proposed exponential smoothing method for double seasonality and a new method based on principal component analysis (PCA). The methods are compared using a time series of hourly demand for Rio de Janeiro and a series of half-hourly demand for England and Wales. The PCA method performed well, but, overall, the best results were achieved with the exponential smoothing method, leading us to conclude that simpler and more robust methods, which require little domain knowledge, can outperform more complex alternatives

    Extending stochastic resonance for neuron models to general Levy noise

    Get PDF
    A recent paper by Patel and Kosko (2008) demonstrated stochastic resonance (SR) for general feedback continuous and spiking neuron models using additive Levy noise constrained to have finite second moments. In this brief, we drop this constraint and show that their result extends to general Levy noise models. We achieve this by showing that �¿large jump�¿ discontinuities in the noise can be controlled so as to allow the stochastic model to tend to a deterministic one as the noise dissipates to zero. SR then follows by a �¿forbidden intervals�¿ theorem as in Patel and Kosko's paper

    Mapping the species richness and composition of tropical forests from remotely sensed data with neural networks

    Get PDF
    The understanding and management of biodiversity is often limited by a lack of data. Remote sensing has considerable potential as a source of data on biodiversity at spatial and temporal scales appropriate for biodiversity management. To-date, most remote sensing studies have focused on only one aspect of biodiversity, species richness, and have generally used conventional image analysis techniques that may not fully exploit the data's information content. Here, we report on a study that aimed to estimate biodiversity more fully from remotely sensed data with the aid of neural networks. Two neural network models, feedforward networks to estimate basic indices of biodiversity and Kohonen networks to provide information on species composition, were used. Biodiversity indices of species richness and evenness derived from the remotely sensed data were strongly correlated with those derived from field survey. For example, the predicted tree species richness was significantly correlated with that observed in the field (r=0.69, significant at the 95% level of confidence). In addition, there was a high degree of correspondence (?83%) between the partitioning of the outputs from Kohonen networks applied to tree species and remotely sensed data sets that indicated the potential to map species composition. Combining the outputs of the two sets of neural network based analyses enabled a map of biodiversity to be produce

    Order-disorder transition in the Chialvo-Bak `minibrain' controlled by network geometry

    Get PDF
    We examine a simple biologically-motivated neural network, the three-layer version of the Chialvo-Bak `minibrain' [Neurosci. 90 (1999) 1137], and present numerical results which indicate that a non-equilibrium phase transition between ordered and disordered phases occurs subject to the tuning of a control parameter. Scale-free behaviour is observed at the critical point. Notably, the transition here is due solely to network geometry and not any noise factor. The phase of the network is thus a design parameter which can be tuned. The phases are determined by differing levels of interference between active paths in the network and the consequent accidental destruction of good paths

    The evolution of signal form: Effects of learned versus inherited recognition

    Get PDF
    Organisms can learn by individual experience to recognize relevant stimuli in the environment or they can genetically inherit this ability from their parents. Here, we ask how these two modes of acquisition affect signal evolution, focusing in particular on the exaggeration and cost of signals. We argue first, that faster learning by individual receivers cannot be a driving force for the evolution of exaggerated and costly signals unless signal senders are related or the same receiver and sender meet repeatedly. We argue instead that biases in receivers’ recognition mechanisms can promote the evolution of costly exaggeration in signals. We provide support for this hypothesis by simulating coevolution between senders and receivers, using artificial neural networks as a model of receivers’ recognition mechanisms. We analyse the joint effects of receiver biases, signal cost and mode of acquisition, investigating the circumstances under which learned recognition gives rise to more exaggerated signals than inherited recognition. We conclude the paper by discussing the relevance of our results to a number of biological scenarios
    • …
    corecore