Data-driven modeling of systemic delay propagation under severe meteorological conditions

The upsetting consequences of weather conditions are well known to any person involved in air transportation. Still the quantification of how these disturbances affect delay propagation and the effectiveness of managers and pilots interventions to prevent possible large-scale system failures needs further attention. In this work, we employ an agent-based data-driven model developed using real flight performance registers for the entire US airport network and focus on the events occurring on October 27 2010 in the United States. A major storm complex that was later called the 2010 Superstorm took place that day. Our model correctly reproduces the evolution of the delay-spreading dynamics. By considering different intervention measures, we can even improve the model predictions getting closer to the real delay data. Our model can thus be of help to managers as a tool to assess different intervention measures in order to diminish the impact of disruptive conditions in the air transport system.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures. Tenth USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar (ATM2013

Folding of Cu, Zn superoxide dismutase and Familial Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis

Cu,Zn superoxide dismutase (SOD1) has been implicated in the familial form of the neurodegenerative disease Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS). It has been suggested that mutant mediated SOD1 misfolding/aggregation is an integral part of the pathology of ALS. We study the folding thermodynamics and kinetics of SOD1 using a hybrid molecular dynamics approach. We reproduce the experimentally observed SOD1 folding thermodynamics and find that the residues which contribute the most to SOD1 thermal stability are also crucial for apparent two-state folding kinetics. Surprisingly, we find that these residues are located on the surface of the protein and not in the hydrophobic core. Mutations in some of the identified residues are found in patients with the disease. We argue that the identified residues may play an important role in aggregation. To further characterize the folding of SOD1, we study the role of cysteine residues in folding and find that non-native disulfide bond formation may significantly alter SOD1 folding dynamics and aggregation propensity.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figure

Regional surname affinity: a spatial network approach

OBJECTIVE We investigate surname affinities among areas of modern‐day China, by constructing a spatial network, and making community detection. It reports a geographical genealogy of the Chinese population that is result of population origins, historical migrations, and societal evolutions. MATERIALS AND METHODS We acquire data from the census records supplied by China's National Citizen Identity Information System, including the surname and regional information of 1.28 billion registered Chinese citizens. We propose a multilayer minimum spanning tree (MMST) to construct a spatial network based on the matrix of isonymic distances, which is often used to characterize the dissimilarity of surname structure among areas. We use the fast unfolding algorithm to detect network communities. RESULTS We obtain a 10‐layer MMST network of 362 prefecture nodes and 3,610 edges derived from the matrix of the Euclidean distances among these areas. These prefectures are divided into eight groups in the spatial network via community detection. We measure the partition by comparing the inter‐distances and intra‐distances of the communities and obtain meaningful regional ethnicity classification. DISCUSSION The visualization of the resulting communities on the map indicates that the prefectures in the same community are usually geographically adjacent. The formation of this partition is influenced by geographical factors, historic migrations, trade and economic factors, as well as isolation of culture and language. The MMST algorithm proves to be effective in geo‐genealogy and ethnicity classification for it retains essential information about surname affinity and highlights the geographical consanguinity of the population.National Natural Science Foundation of China, Grant/Award Numbers: 61773069, 71731002; National Social Science Foundation of China, Grant/Award Number: 14BSH024; Foundation of China of China Scholarships Council, Grant/Award Numbers: 201606045048, 201706040188, 201706040015; DOE, Grant/Award Number: DE-AC07-05Id14517; DTRA, Grant/Award Number: HDTRA1-14-1-0017; NSF, Grant/Award Numbers: CHE-1213217, CMMI-1125290, PHY-1505000 (61773069 - National Natural Science Foundation of China; 71731002 - National Natural Science Foundation of China; 14BSH024 - National Social Science Foundation of China; 201606045048 - Foundation of China of China Scholarships Council; 201706040188 - Foundation of China of China Scholarships Council; 201706040015 - Foundation of China of China Scholarships Council; DE-AC07-05Id14517 - DOE; HDTRA1-14-1-0017 - DTRA; CHE-1213217 - NSF; CMMI-1125290 - NSF; PHY-1505000 - NSF)Published versio

Disease Localization in Multilayer Networks

We present a continuous formulation of epidemic spreading on multilayer networks using a tensorial representation, extending the models of monoplex networks to this context. We derive analytical expressions for the epidemic threshold of the SIS and SIR dynamics, as well as upper and lower bounds for the disease prevalence in the steady state for the SIS scenario. Using the quasi-stationary state method we numerically show the existence of disease localization and the emergence of two or more susceptibility peaks, which are characterized analytically and numerically through the inverse participation ratio. Furthermore, when mapping the critical dynamics to an eigenvalue problem, we observe a characteristic transition in the eigenvalue spectra of the supra-contact tensor as a function of the ratio of two spreading rates: if the rate at which the disease spreads within a layer is comparable to the spreading rate across layers, the individual spectra of each layer merge with the coupling between layers. Finally, we verified the barrier effect, i.e., for three-layer configuration, when the layer with the largest eigenvalue is located at the center of the line, it can effectively act as a barrier to the disease. The formalism introduced here provides a unifying mathematical approach to disease contagion in multiplex systems opening new possibilities for the study of spreading processes.Comment: Revised version. 25 pages and 18 figure

Contexts of diffusion: Adoption of research synthesis in Social Work and Women's Studies

Texts reveal the subjects of interest in research fields, and the values, beliefs, and practices of researchers. In this study, texts are examined through bibliometric mapping and topic modeling to provide a birds eye view of the social dynamics associated with the diffusion of research synthesis methods in the contexts of Social Work and Women's Studies. Research synthesis texts are especially revealing because the methods, which include meta-analysis and systematic review, are reliant on the availability of past research and data, sometimes idealized as objective, egalitarian approaches to research evaluation, fundamentally tied to past research practices, and performed with the goal informing future research and practice. This study highlights the co-influence of past and subsequent research within research fields; illustrates dynamics of the diffusion process; and provides insight into the cultural contexts of research in Social Work and Women's Studies. This study suggests the potential to further develop bibliometric mapping and topic modeling techniques to inform research problem selection and resource allocation.Comment: To appear in proceedings of the 2014 International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling, and Prediction (SBP2014

The Evolutionary Unfolding of Complexity

We analyze the population dynamics of a broad class of fitness functions that exhibit epochal evolution---a dynamical behavior, commonly observed in both natural and artificial evolutionary processes, in which long periods of stasis in an evolving population are punctuated by sudden bursts of change. Our approach---statistical dynamics---combines methods from both statistical mechanics and dynamical systems theory in a way that offers an alternative to current ``landscape'' models of evolutionary optimization. We describe the population dynamics on the macroscopic level of fitness classes or phenotype subbasins, while averaging out the genotypic variation that is consistent with a macroscopic state. Metastability in epochal evolution occurs solely at the macroscopic level of the fitness distribution. While a balance between selection and mutation maintains a quasistationary distribution of fitness, individuals diffuse randomly through selectively neutral subbasins in genotype space. Sudden innovations occur when, through this diffusion, a genotypic portal is discovered that connects to a new subbasin of higher fitness genotypes. In this way, we identify innovations with the unfolding and stabilization of a new dimension in the macroscopic state space. The architectural view of subbasins and portals in genotype space clarifies how frozen accidents and the resulting phenotypic constraints guide the evolution to higher complexity.Comment: 28 pages, 5 figure