17 research outputs found

    Forecasting: theory and practice

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    Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases

    Improved practices for client contact management in a crisis during restrictions on personal contact as caused by Covid-19

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    The purpose of this thesis is to explore, over the course of the current pandemic and the corresponding contact restrictions, changes to client communication practices in professional services and the lessons that can be learned from the process. The overall aim is to explore how business consultancies have developed crisis responses around client communication, what their experience with these measures were and on the basis of this, to evaluate which could be used in order improve crisis management and preparation in the future or improve practice in general. While much has been said about communication about a crisis, current research lacks information on crisis management around client communication, especially in the business sector the thesis investigates and with a focus on interactive communication modes. There is also very little material on what is likely to become improved practices. The present thesis seeks to address this gap. Adopting a Critical Realist paradigm and an abductive research logic, a case study on the consulting industry was conducted, with qualitative interviews as the main source of primary data and thematic analysis as the method. Interviewees were professionals from different types of consultancies from Germany, Austria and Switzerland. The industry was chosen because for it, regular client contact and continuous close coordination are key, and this exchange has been done in person in the vast majority of instances. Key outcomes are a framework of recommendations for client communication in a crisis and first insights into how current crisis management measures might affect the workplace design after the crisis ends. Recommendations highlight in particular the importance of infrastructure and preparation, the need for rapid and pragmatic decision making, the usefulness of a project by project approach where possible, the central role of stakeholder involvement and the potential need of also supporting clients. This contributes to theory by presenting a more comprehensive framework on communication with clients in a crisis than hitherto published. It contributes to practice by providing a set of implementable recommendations for upholding and managing said communication. This might also be applicable for crisis communication with other stakeholders than clients and beyond the consulting industry

    Ethical and Governance Challenges in Population Biobanking: the case of the global Anti-Doping Administration & Management System

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    This study is an ethical analysis of the governance and regulatory dimensions of biobanking with specific reference to the Anti-Doping Administration Management System (ADAMS) of the global regulator of anti-doping in sports, the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA). The study focuses on four key ethico-governance issues: (i) consent; (ii) benefit-sharing; (iii) harmonization of ethics and governance; and (iv) conditions for the secondary research uses of data originally collected for doping control purposes. It is argued that the consent process prior to data collection, storage and analysis is problematic, since athletes may not refuse the request to provide data sought by anti-doping authorities without forfeiting their eligibility to compete. The process requires simultaneous permission for research and testing which creates ambiguity, compounded by the unequal relationship between athletes and WADA. A range of alternative models are explored and a case is made for an approach that combines broad consent with iterative, or ‘reflexive’ governance and stakeholder involvement including education around research. Furthermore, ethical issues remain concerning governance and regulation for population research and use of data more generally between legal jurisdictions and within diverse populations. It is also argued that WADA’s claim to harmonization through its operational methods, regulation and governance, is not sufficiently well-defined outside of specific legal uses and is therefore too blunt a tool for ethical governance in global sport contexts. This thesis proposes reforms to existing WADA processes including consent processes and moves toward more reflexive governance frameworks that allow contextual nuance and iterative development, respecting differing needs within a shared structure. Specific recommendations are made to enhance accountability for potential secondary uses of ADAMS data for research. A distinction is drawn between anti-doping and broader biomedical research in developing ethically justifiable pathways that reduce the potential for coercion and empower athletes as contributors and potential beneficiaries

    Success factors of social influencers – multiple dimensions and contingencies of a prosperous campaign

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    Social Influencer haben sich zu einem mächtigen Mittel der Marketing-Kommunikation entwickelt. Gegenwärtig übersteigt die Höhe der Ausgaben für Social Influencer Marketing die der traditionellen Werbung (wie Fernsehspots, Print- oder Plakatwerbung). Angesichts des großen Einflusses, den Social Influencer auf Konsumenten haben können, stellt sich die Frage, wie man eine Influencer-Kampagne erfolgreich durchführt. Erste Ansätze haben Engagement-Variablen berücksichtigt - z. B. die Anzahl der Follower eines Influencers. Allerdings haben sich diese Ansätze oft genug als zu schlicht und eindimensional erwiesen. Tatsächlich beruht der Erfolg eines Influencer-Endorsements auf einem komplexen System von Erfolgsfaktoren, deren Bedeutung variieren kann. Dazu gehören unter anderem Faktoren, die in der Person des Influencers liegen, das Zusammenspiel zwischen Influencer und Zielgruppe, das Setup von Influencer und Marke/Produkt, der Kommunikationsstil des Influencers und die Vermeidung von Influencer-Fehlverhalten. Diese Elemente können miteinander verbunden sein und auch in gegenseitigem Konflikt stehen. Die vorliegende Dissertation widmet sich der Erforschung dieses komplexen Systems und der Schließung von Forschungslücken. Das erste Modul (1 Beitrag) legt ein Fundament, indem die drei Faktoren Attraktivität, Expertise und Vertrauenswürdigkeit untersucht werden. Im zweiten Modul, das zwei Forschungsarbeiten umfasst, wird das Zusammenspiel zwischen Influencer, Konsument und Marke/Produkt behandelt. Das erste Paper fokussiert die Persönlichkeit und untersucht die Übereinstimmung der Influencer-Persönlichkeit mit dem tatsächlichen und gewünschten Selbstkonzept des Konsumenten sowie mit der Markenpersönlichkeit. Dabei wird auch die moderierende Rolle des Produktinvolvements berücksichtigt. Im zweiten Beitrag wird das Zusammenspiel von Influencer- und Konsumentenattraktivität sowie Geschlecht untersucht. Das dritte Modul (4 Beiträge) konzentriert sich auf die Erfolgsfaktoren für verschiedene Produktarten bzw. Endorsement-Anlässe; dabei wird ein starker Bezug zur Kommunikation des Influencers hergestellt. Paper 1 und 2 ziehen eine grundsätzliche Grenze zwischen hedonischen und utilitaristischen Produkten und untersuchen die Bedeutung von Kommunikationsstil, Faktizität, Expertise und demographischer Ähnlichkeit. Der dritte Beitrag untersucht die Rolle der Attraktivität und Expertise von Influencern für attraktivitätsbezogene und nicht-attraktivitätsbezogene Produkte. Der vierte Beitrag schließlich diskutiert die Besonderheiten eines Influencer-Endorsements im Non-Profit-Kontext. Im letzten Modul werden die Schattenseiten des Influencer-Marketings, nämlich die schädliche Wirkung von Skandalen, in einem Beitrag beleuchtet. Diese Arbeit verdeutlicht die Vielfalt und Kontingenz der Faktoren, die ein erfolgreiches Influencer Endorsement ausmachen. Alle Faktoren müssen gegeneinander abgewogen und diskutiert werden; dabei spielen Unterschiede wie die angesprochene Zielgruppe oder das beworbene Produkt bzw. Anliegen eine große Rolle. Die Ergebnisse liefern wertvolle Implikationen für Praktiker vieler Branchen, um ihre Influencer-Kampagnen erfolgreich zu gestalten und umzusetzen. Ebenso eröffnen die Ergebnisse viele Perspektiven für zukünftige Forschung. Ein großes Forschungspotenzial kann in einer qualitativen Ergänzung der durchgeführten quantitativen Studien liegen. Auf diese Weise könnten die Gedanken, Gefühle und Handlungsabsichten von Influencern, Konsumenten und Praktikern, die die Grundlage der vorliegenden Ergebnisse bilden, aufgedeckt werden

    Forecasting: theory and practice

    Get PDF
    Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

    Nigeria and Boko Haram: Societal and Cultural Dysfunction Affecting Military Performance

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    Since 2009, the Nigerian military has been fighting the insurgent and terror group Boko Haram in the Northeast region of Nigeria. In 2016, the Islamic State of West Africa Province (ISWAP) formed as an offshoot of Boko Haram and aligned with the remnants of ISIS. The Nigerian army has failed to defeat the insurgent groups and has, according to the research, committed abuses and atrocities, including extrajudicial killings, against the civilian population. The norms of military effectiveness, the normative theory of military performance and, the neorealist combat balance theory formed the theoretical basis for this study. The research questions addressed whether anation’s military reflected its society and if the dysfunction in that society affected military performance. This qualitative study utilized a grounded constructivist approach in gathering data from 7 active duty and retired military senior leadership and academics. Data analysis revealed that anation’s military does mirror/reflect the society from which it emanated. The dysfunction found in society transfers to the military and is causally linked to battlefield failure and societal abuse. Specifically, this study identified the rabid dysfunction and corruption found within Nigerian society and linked societal dysfunction to army dysfunction. In addition, in a nation where tribalism dominates every aspect of life, this study found the army to be a tribe unto itself, propagating the violent narrative against civilians. Positive social change may be possible if civilian and military leadership understands the dysfunctional social dynamic and its effects on State institutions, including the military, in a post-colonial African nation

    Conversational AI Agents: Investigating AI-Specific Characteristics that Induce Anthropomorphism and Trust in Human-AI Interaction

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    The investment in AI agents has steadily increased over the past few years, yet the adoption of these agents has been uneven. Industry reports show that the majority of people do not trust AI agents with important tasks. While the existing IS theories explain users’ trust in IT artifacts, several new studies have raised doubts about the applicability of current theories in the context of AI agents. At first glance, an AI agent might seem like any other technological artifact. However, a more in-depth assessment exposes some fundamental characteristics that make AI agents different from previous IT artifacts. The aim of this dissertation, therefore, is to identify the AI-specific characteristics and behaviors that hinder and contribute to trust and distrust, thereby shaping users’ behavior in human-AI interaction. Using a custom-developed conversational AI agent, this dissertation extends the human-AI literature by introducing and empirically testing six new constructs, namely, AI indeterminacy, task fulfillment indeterminacy, verbal indeterminacy, AI inheritability, AI trainability, and AI freewill

    Trust and distrust in intra-organisational relationhips

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    This thesis contributes to the extant body of knowledge of trust and distrust offering insights into influencing factors in intra-organisational relationships. Drawing on interviews with 50 participants from top UK and USA consulting companies, Mayer, Davis, and Schoorman' s ( 1995) trustworthiness dimensions and trustor associated factors are extended; additional adjuvant trust factors that facilitate and reinforce trust development are identified. These findings also advance understanding of trust by distinguishing between person- and task focused natures of trust. Factors influencing distrust are found to be associated with the distrustor, distrustee's distrustworthiness and adjuvant distrust factors which moderate the distrust development. Questions surrounding the relationship between trust and distrust are raised and considered, revealing trust and distrust as separate but highly associated constructs. Highlighting culture as one of the factors influencing trust and distrust, the thesis also explores these relationships. Following a systematic review, insights gained from empirical research are offered. Building on Chao and Moon's (2005) cultural mosaic, a dynamic conceptualisation and operationalisation of culture is discussed, emphasising particularly the importance of additional associative cultural tiles within the global and diverse organisational contexts. The implications of the findings for future research and practice are discussed

    UNderstanding uptake of Immunisations in Travelling aNd Gypsy communities (UNITING): a qualitative interview study

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    BACKGROUND: Gypsies, Travellers and Roma (referred to as Travellers) are less likely to access health services, including immunisation. To improve immunisation rates, we need to understand what helps and hinders individuals in these communities in taking up immunisations. AIMS: (1) Investigate the barriers to and facilitators of acceptability and uptake of immunisations among six Traveller communities across four UK cities; and (2) identify possible interventions to increase uptake of immunisations in these Traveller communities that could be tested in a subsequent feasibility study. METHODS: Three-phase qualitative study underpinned by the social ecological model. Phase 1: interviews with 174 Travellers from six communities: Romanian Roma (Bristol); English Gypsy/Irish Traveller (Bristol); English Gypsy (York); Romanian/Slovakian Roma (Glasgow); Scottish Showpeople (Glasgow); and Irish Traveller (London). Focus on childhood and adult vaccines. Phase 2: interviews with 39 service providers. Data were analysed using the framework approach. Interventions were identified using a modified intervention mapping approach. Phase 3: 51 Travellers and 25 service providers attended workshops and produced a prioritised list of potentially acceptable and feasible interventions. RESULTS: There were many common accounts of barriers and facilitators across communities, particularly across the English-speaking communities. Scottish Showpeople were the most similar to the general population. Roma communities experienced additional barriers of language and being in a new country. Men, women and service providers described similar barriers and facilitators. There was widespread acceptance of childhood and adult immunisation, with current parents perceived as more positive than their elders. A minority of English-speaking Travellers worried about multiple/combined childhood vaccines, adult flu and whooping cough. Cultural concerns about vaccines offered during pregnancy and about human papillomavirus were most evident in the Bristol English Gypsy/Irish Traveller community. Language, literacy, discrimination, poor school attendance, poverty and housing were identified by Travellers and service providers as barriers for some. Trustful relationships with health professionals were important and continuity of care was valued. A few English-speaking Travellers described problems of booking and attending for immunisation. Service providers tailored their approach to Travellers, particularly the Roma. Funding cuts, NHS reforms and poor monitoring challenged their work. Five ‘top-priority’ interventions were agreed across communities and service providers to improve the immunisation among Travellers who are housed or settled on an authorised site: (1) cultural competence training for health professionals and frontline staff; (2) identification of Travellers in health records to tailor support and monitor uptake; (3) provision of a named frontline person in general practitioner practices to provide respectful and supportive service; (4) flexible and diverse systems for booking appointments, recall and reminders; and (5) protected funding for health visitors specialising in Traveller health, including immunisation. LIMITATIONS: No Travellers living on the roadside or on unofficial encampments were interviewed. We should exert caution in generalising to these groups. FUTURE WORK: To include development, implementation and evaluation of a national policy plan (and practice guidance plan) to promote the uptake of immunisation among Traveller communities. STUDY REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN20019630 and UK Clinical Research Network Portfolio number 15182. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 20, No. 72. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information
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