Network influence effects in agent-based modelling of civil violence

In this paper we describe an agent-based model of civil violence with network influence effects. We considered two different networks, ‘family’ and ‘news’, as a simplified representation of multiple-context influences, to study their individual and joint impact on the size and timing of violence bursts, the perceived legitimacy, and the system’s long term behaviour. It was found that network influences do not change either the system’s long term behaviour or the periodicity of the rebellion peaks, but increase the size of violence bursts, particularly for the case of strong ‘news impact’. For certain combinations of network influences, initial legitimacy, and legitimacy feedback formulation, the solutions showed a very complicated behaviour with unpredictable alternations between long periods of calm and turmoil.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio

Social media censorship in times of political unrest: a social simulation experiment with the UK riots

Following the 2011 wave of political unrest, extending from the Arab Spring to the UK riots, the formation of a large consensus around Internet censorship is underway. The present paper adopts a social simulation approach to show that the decision to “regulate”, filter or censor social media in situations of unrest changes the pattern of civil protest and ultimately results in higher levels of violence. Building on Epstein's (2002) agent-based model, several alternative scenarios are generated. The systemic optimum, represented by complete absence of censorship, not only corresponds to lower levels of violence over time, but allows for significant periods of social peace after each outburst

On agent-based modelling of large scale conflict against a central authority: from mechanisms to complex behaviour

In this work, an Agent-Based model of large scale conflict against a central authority was developed. The model proposed herein is an extension of Epstein's Agent-Based model of civil violence, in which new mechanisms such as deprivation-dependent hardship, generalised vanishing of the risk perception (`massive fear loss') below a critical ratio between deterrence and `group support', legitimacy feedback, network influences and `mass enthusiasm' (contagion) were implemented. The model was explored a set of computer experiments and the results compared with statistical analyses of events in the "Arab Spring". The main contributions of the present work for understanding how mechanisms of large scale conflict lead to complex behaviour were (i ) a quantitative description of the impact of the \Arab Spring" in several countries focused on complexity issues such as peaceful vs violent, spontaneous vs organized, and patterns of size, duration and recurrence of conflict events; (ii ) the explanation of the relationship between the estimated arrest probability and the size of rebellion peaks in Epstein's model; (iii ) a new form of the estimated arrest probability with a mechanism of `massive fear loss'; (iv ) the derivation of a relationship between the legitimacy and action threshold for complex solutions to occur with both low and high values of the legitimacy; (v) a simple representation of political vs economic deprivation with a parameter which controls the `sensitivity' to value; (vi ) the effect of legitimacy feedback; and (vii ) the effect of network influences on the stability of the solutions.Neste trabalho, é apresentado um modelo baseado em agentes para o estudo do conflito massivo contra uma autoridade central. O modelo proposto é uma extensão do modelo baseado em agentes para o estudo da violência civil devido a Epstein, incluindo os mecanismos de relação entre a privação relativa e 'provação' (hardship), desaparecimento generalizado da percepção de risco abaixo de uma relação crítica entre a capacidade de dissuasão e o `apoio colectivo', a retroalimentação da legitimidade em função da contestação, as influências associadas as redes, e o mecanismo do `entusiasmo colectivo' (contágio). O modelo foi explorado através de um conjunto de experiências de simulação, e os resultados comparados com uma análise estatística de eventos ocorridos durante a "Primavera Árabe". Os principais contributos do presente trabalho foram (i ) a descrição quantitativa do impacto da "Primavera Árabe" em diversos países, focada em aspectos de complexidade; (ii ) a explicação da relação entre a função de estimativa de probabilidade de prisão e a magnitude dos picos de revolta social; (iii ) uma nova forma para a função de estimativa de probabilidade de prisão, como mecanismo de `perda generalizada do medo'; (iv ) a dedução de uma relação entre a legitimidade e o limiar de acção para a ocorrência de soluções com comportamento complexo, tanto para valores elevados como baixos da legitimidade; (v) uma representação simples da privação política e da privação económica, com um parâmetro regulador da `sensibilidade' ao valor; (vi ) a introdução do mecanismo de retroalimentação da legitimidade; e (vii ) o efeito das influências devidas a redes na estabilidade das soluções

The Repast Simulation/Modelling System for Geospatial Simulation

The use of simulation/modelling systems can simplify the implementation of agent-based models. Repast is one of the few simulation/modelling software systems that supports the integration of geospatial data especially that of vector-based geometries. This paper provides details about Repast specifically an overview, including its different development languages available to develop agent-based models. Before describing Repast’s core functionality and how models can be developed within it, specific emphasis will be placed on its ability to represent dynamics and incorporate geographical information. Once these elements of the system have been covered, a diverse list of Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) applications using Repast will be presented with particular emphasis on spatial applications utilizing Repast, in particular, those that utilize geospatial data

Between fallacy and feasibility? Dealing with the risk of ecological fallacies in the quantitative study of protest mobilization and conflict

In recent years, the quantitative study of conflict has increasingly focused on small-scale and/or localized conflicts in the developing world. In this paper, we analyze and critically reflect upon a major methodological shortcoming of many studies in this field of research. We argue that by using group- or macro-level empirical data and modelling techniques, while at the same time theoretically underpinning observed empirical associations with individual-level mechanisms, many of these studies risk committing an ecological fallacy. The individual-level mechanism on which many studies rely concerns the presence of grievances which mobilize people to participate in contentious politics. This motivational approach was also present in early studies on protest mobilization in Western societies, which often relied on similar research designs. However, subsequent advances in this literature and the use of methods that were targeted more directly at the individual level uncovered that grievances alone cannot explain mobilization and that organizational capabilities and complex psychological mechanisms of belonging also form part of the puzzle. While drawing on conflict events as well as survey data from Africa, we demonstrate empirically that here, as well, inferring micro-level relations and dynamics from macro-level empirical models can lead to erroneous interpretations and inferences. Hence, we argue that to improve our understanding of conflict mobilization in the developing world, especially for conflicts with low levels of violence, it is necessary to substantially expand our methodological toolbox beyond macro-level analyses

Anti-Racist Policies in France. From Ideological and Historical Schemes to Socio-Political Realities

In France, since the 1980s, imaginaries derived from decolonization have played a major role in the elaboration of anti-racist policies. Simultaneously, because of the universalistic conception of the French Republic, the use of ethnic categories has been taboo and systematically replaced, in political schemes, by socio-economic criteria. Multiculturalism, in the Anglo-Saxon meaning, has therefore not been a traditional political analysis framework. Nevertheless, since the 1990s, the French model of integration, which was based on the individual, has been more and more accused of giving way to inequalities and racism. For ten years, the rise of the concept of the «ethnicization» of cultural groups in public debate has thus inspired political demands that require concrete answers, notably against urban violence and education.Anti-racist policies, French model of integration, Multiculturalism, Ethnicization, Urban violence, Education

Civilising Globalism: Transnational Norm-Building Networks—A Research Programme

Decentralised, self-organised cross-border activities are increasingly shaping global policymaking. While state actors have lost ground, policy and economic networks have emerged as key actors, transforming international relations as well as national spheres. Academic discourse is following their activity, often focusing on "advocacy networks" and on the role of transnational actors within the transformation of the world economy and world polity. In contrast to these research activities, the approach proposed here extends the scope of inquiry to include the role of transnational networks in norm-building and norm-implementation. The networks under scrutiny here do not confine themselves to the articulation of particular interests, the resolution of particular conflicts, or compliance with legal norms. It is presumed here that a variety of networks which are fundamentally concerned with the creation of norms have emerged. The predominance of the nation-state, one of the main characteristics of modern democratic thinking, has eroded to the point where the fundamental nexus of voice (democratic participation) and entitlement (legal and social rights and duties) has been weakened or even broken. We presume that this decentration has fundamentally changed the option of voice as one of the most important responses by citizens to crisis and change. This comes to the fore with the emergence and effectiveness of transnational norm-building networks. The article develops a research programme, the outcome of which will shed light on this new resource for the development of a democratised world polity.networks, norms, world polity, globalisation, global civil society