Assessing Simulations of Imperial Dynamics and Conflict in the Ancient World

The development of models to capture large-scale dynamics in human history is one of the core contributions of cliodynamics. Most often, these models are assessed by their predictive capability on some macro-scale and aggregated measure and compared to manually curated historical data. In this report, we consider the model from Turchin et al. (2013), where the evaluation is done on the prediction of "imperial density": the relative frequency with which a geographical area belonged to large-scale polities over a certain time window. We implement the model and release both code and data for reproducibility. We then assess its behaviour against three historical data sets: the relative size of simulated polities vs historical ones; the spatial correlation of simulated imperial density with historical population density; the spatial correlation of simulated conflict vs historical conflict. At the global level, we show good agreement with population density ($R^2 < 0.75$), and some agreement with historical conflict in Europe ($R^2 < 0.42$). The model instead fails to reproduce the historical shape of individual polities. Finally, we tweak the model to behave greedily by having polities preferentially attacking weaker neighbours. Results significantly degrade, suggesting that random attacks are a key trait of the original model. We conclude by proposing a way forward by matching the probabilistic imperial strength from simulations to inferred networked communities from real settlement data

Individual Security and Network Design with Malicious Nodes

Networks are beneficial to those being connected but can also be used as carriers of contagious hostile attacks. These attacks are often facilitated by exploiting corrupt network users. To protect against the attacks, users can resort to costly defense. The decentralized nature of such protection is known to be inefficient but the inefficiencies can be mitigated by a careful network design. Is network design still effective when not all users can be trusted? We propose a model of network design and defense with byzantine nodes to address this question. We study the optimal defended networks in the case of centralized defense and, for the case of decentralized defense, we show that the inefficiencies due to decentralization can be fully mitigated, despite the presence of the byzantine nodes.Comment: 19 pages, 3 figure

Application of Steganography for Anonymity through the Internet

In this paper, a novel steganographic scheme based on chaotic iterations is proposed. This research work takes place into the information hiding security framework. The applications for anonymity and privacy through the Internet are regarded too. To guarantee such an anonymity, it should be possible to set up a secret communication channel into a web page, being both secure and robust. To achieve this goal, we propose an information hiding scheme being stego-secure, which is the highest level of security in a well defined and studied category of attacks called "watermark-only attack". This category of attacks is the best context to study steganography-based anonymity through the Internet. The steganalysis of our steganographic process is also studied in order to show it security in a real test framework.Comment: 14 page

Organic Design of Massively Distributed Systems: A Complex Networks Perspective

The vision of Organic Computing addresses challenges that arise in the design of future information systems that are comprised of numerous, heterogeneous, resource-constrained and error-prone components or devices. Here, the notion organic particularly highlights the idea that, in order to be manageable, such systems should exhibit self-organization, self-adaptation and self-healing characteristics similar to those of biological systems. In recent years, the principles underlying many of the interesting characteristics of natural systems have been investigated from the perspective of complex systems science, particularly using the conceptual framework of statistical physics and statistical mechanics. In this article, we review some of the interesting relations between statistical physics and networked systems and discuss applications in the engineering of organic networked computing systems with predictable, quantifiable and controllable self-* properties.Comment: 17 pages, 14 figures, preprint of submission to Informatik-Spektrum published by Springe