9,037 research outputs found
A Dual Method For Backward Stochastic Differential Equations with Application to Risk Valuation
We propose a numerical recipe for risk evaluation defined by a backward
stochastic differential equation. Using dual representation of the risk
measure, we convert the risk valuation to a stochastic control problem where
the control is a certain Radon-Nikodym derivative process. By exploring the
maximum principle, we show that a piecewise-constant dual control provides a
good approximation on a short interval. A dynamic programming algorithm extends
the approximation to a finite time horizon. Finally, we illustrate the
application of the procedure to financial risk management in conjunction with
nested simulation and on an multidimensional portfolio valuation problem
A sparse grid approach to balance sheet risk measurement
In this work, we present a numerical method based on a sparse grid
approximation to compute the loss distribution of the balance sheet of a
financial or an insurance company. We first describe, in a stylised way, the
assets and liabilities dynamics that are used for the numerical estimation of
the balance sheet distribution. For the pricing and hedging model, we chose a
classical Black & Scholes model with a stochastic interest rate following a
Hull & White model. The risk management model describing the evolution of the
parameters of the pricing and hedging model is a Gaussian model. The new
numerical method is compared with the traditional nested simulation approach.
We review the convergence of both methods to estimate the risk indicators under
consideration. Finally, we provide numerical results showing that the sparse
grid approach is extremely competitive for models with moderate dimension.Comment: 27 pages, 7 figures. CEMRACS 201
A machine learning approach to portfolio pricing and risk management for high-dimensional problems
We present a general framework for portfolio risk management in discrete
time, based on a replicating martingale. This martingale is learned from a
finite sample in a supervised setting. The model learns the features necessary
for an effective low-dimensional representation, overcoming the curse of
dimensionality common to function approximation in high-dimensional spaces. We
show results based on polynomial and neural network bases. Both offer superior
results to naive Monte Carlo methods and other existing methods like
least-squares Monte Carlo and replicating portfolios.Comment: 30 pages (main), 10 pages (appendix), 3 figures, 22 table
Capital allocation for credit portfolios with kernel estimators
Determining contributions by sub-portfolios or single exposures to
portfolio-wide economic capital for credit risk is an important risk
measurement task. Often economic capital is measured as Value-at-Risk (VaR) of
the portfolio loss distribution. For many of the credit portfolio risk models
used in practice, the VaR contributions then have to be estimated from Monte
Carlo samples. In the context of a partly continuous loss distribution (i.e.
continuous except for a positive point mass on zero), we investigate how to
combine kernel estimation methods with importance sampling to achieve more
efficient (i.e. less volatile) estimation of VaR contributions.Comment: 22 pages, 12 tables, 1 figure, some amendment
Rating targeting and the confidence levels implicit in bank capital
The solvency standards implicit in bank capital levels, as reported eg in Jackson et al (2002), are much higher than those required for top ratings, if standard single period economic capital models are taken se-riously. We explain this excess capital puzzle by forward looking rating targeting behaviour by banks, which aims at maintaining rating above a minimum target in future periods. We calibrate to data on actual bank capital the confidence level used by the median US AA rated bank to maintain at least a single A rating. The calibrated confidence level is in line with the historical probability of an AA rated bank to be downgraded below A.bank capital; credit rating; value-at-risk; economic capital; capital structure
Hybrid Choice Models: Progress and Challenges
We discuss the development of predictive choice models that go beyond the random utility model in its narrowest formulation. Such approaches incorporate several elements of cognitive process that have been identified as important to the choice process, including strong dependence on history and context, perception formation, and latent constraints. A flexible and practical hybrid choice model is presented that integrates many types of discrete choice modeling methods, draws on different types of data, and allows for flexible disturbances and explicit modeling of latent psychological explanatory variables, heterogeneity, and latent segmentation. Both progress and challenges related to the development of the hybrid choice model are presented.
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