Statistical Inference using the Morse-Smale Complex

The Morse-Smale complex of a function $f$ decomposes the sample space into cells where $f$ is increasing or decreasing. When applied to nonparametric density estimation and regression, it provides a way to represent, visualize, and compare multivariate functions. In this paper, we present some statistical results on estimating Morse-Smale complexes. This allows us to derive new results for two existing methods: mode clustering and Morse-Smale regression. We also develop two new methods based on the Morse-Smale complex: a visualization technique for multivariate functions and a two-sample, multivariate hypothesis test.Comment: 45 pages, 13 figures. Accepted to Electronic Journal of Statistic

Designing Improved Sediment Transport Visualizations

Monitoring, or more commonly, modeling of sediment transport in the coastal environment is a critical task with relevance to coastline stability, beach erosion, tracking environmental contaminants, and safety of navigation. Increased intensity and regularity of storms such as Superstorm Sandy heighten the importance of our understanding of sediment transport processes. A weakness of current modeling capabilities is the ability to easily visualize the result in an intuitive manner. Many of the available visualization software packages display only a single variable at once, usually as a two-dimensional, plan-view cross-section. With such limited display capabilities, sophisticated 3D models are undermined in both the interpretation of results and dissemination of information to the public. Here we explore a subset of existing modeling capabilities (specifically, modeling scour around man-made structures) and visualization solutions, examine their shortcomings and present a design for a 4D visualization for sediment transport studies that is based on perceptually-focused data visualization research and recent and ongoing developments in multivariate displays. Vector and scalar fields are co-displayed, yet kept independently identifiable utilizing human perception\u27s separation of color, texture, and motion. Bathymetry, sediment grain-size distribution, and forcing hydrodynamics are a subset of the variables investigated for simultaneous representation. Direct interaction with field data is tested to support rapid validation of sediment transport model results. Our goal is a tight integration of both simulated data and real world observations to support analysis and simulation of the impact of major sediment transport events such as hurricanes. We unite modeled results and field observations within a geodatabase designed as an application schema of the Arc Marine Data Model. Our real-world focus is on the Redbird Artificial Reef Site, roughly 18 nautical miles offshor- Delaware Bay, Delaware, where repeated surveys have identified active scour and bedform migration in 27 m water depth amongst the more than 900 deliberately sunken subway cars and vessels. Coincidently collected high-resolution multibeam bathymetry, backscatter, and side-scan sonar data from surface and autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) systems along with complementary sub-bottom, grab sample, bottom imagery, and wave and current (via ADCP) datasets provide the basis for analysis. This site is particularly attractive due to overlap with the Delaware Bay Operational Forecast System (DBOFS), a model that provides historical and forecast oceanographic data that can be tested in hindcast against significant changes observed at the site during Superstorm Sandy and in predicting future changes through small-scale modeling around the individual reef objects

Multivariate Statistical Process Control Charts and the Problem of Interpretation: A Short Overview and Some Applications in Industry

Woodall and Montgomery in a discussion paper, state that multivariate process control is one of the most rapidly developing sections of statistical process control. Nowadays, in industry, there are many situations in which the simultaneous monitoring or control, of two or more related quality - process characteristics is necessary. Process monitoring problems in which several related variables are of interest are collectively known as Multivariate Statistical Process Control (MSPC). This article has three parts. In the first part, we discuss in brief the basic procedures for the implementation of multivariate statistical process control via control charting. In the second part we present the most useful procedures for interpreting the out-of-control variable when a control charting procedure gives an out-of-control signal in a multivariate process. Finally, in the third, we present applications of multivariate statistical process control in the area of industrial process control, informatics, and businessQuality Control, Process Control, Multivariate Statistical Process Control, Hotelling's T², CUSUM, EWMA, PCA, PLS, Identification, Interpretation

ELM regime classification by conformal prediction on an information manifold

Characterization and control of plasma instabilities known as edge-localized modes (ELMs) is crucial for the operation of fusion reactors. Recently, machine learning methods have demonstrated good potential in making useful inferences from stochastic fusion data sets. However, traditional classification methods do not offer an inherent estimate of the goodness of their prediction. In this paper, a distance-based conformal predictor classifier integrated with a geometric-probabilistic framework is presented. The first benefit of the approach lies in its comprehensive treatment of highly stochastic fusion data sets, by modeling the measurements with probability distributions in a metric space. This enables calculation of a natural distance measure between probability distributions: the Rao geodesic distance. Second, the predictions are accompanied by estimates of their accuracy and reliability. The method is applied to the classification of regimes characterized by different types of ELMs based on the measurements of global parameters and their error bars. This yields promising success rates and outperforms state-of-the-art automatic techniques for recognizing ELM signatures. The estimates of goodness of the predictions increase the confidence of classification by ELM experts, while allowing more reliable decisions regarding plasma control and at the same time increasing the robustness of the control system