Multivariate adaptive regression splines for estimating riverine constituent concentrations

Regression-based methods are commonly used for riverine constituent concentration/flux estimation, which is essential for guiding water quality protection practices and environmental decision making. This paper developed a multivariate adaptive regression splines model for estimating riverine constituent concentrations (MARS-EC). The process, interpretability and flexibility of the MARS-EC modelling approach, was demonstrated for total nitrogen in the Patuxent River, a major river input to Chesapeake Bay. Model accuracy and uncertainty of the MARS-EC approach was further analysed using nitrate plus nitrite datasets from eight tributary rivers to Chesapeake Bay. Results showed that the MARS-EC approach integrated the advantages of both parametric and nonparametric regression methods, and model accuracy was demonstrated to be superior to the traditionally used ESTIMATOR model. MARS-EC is flexible and allows consideration of auxiliary variables; the variables and interactions can be selected automatically. MARS-EC does not constrain concentration-predictor curves to be constant but rather is able to identify shifts in these curves from mathematical expressions and visual graphics. The MARS-EC approach provides an effective and complementary tool along with existing approaches for estimating riverine constituent concentrations

Multivariate NIR studies of seed-water interaction in Scots Pine Seeds (Pinus sylvestris L.)

This thesis describes seed-water interaction using near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy, multivariate regression models and Scots pine seeds. The presented research covers classification of seed viability, prediction of seed moisture content, selection of NIR wavelengths and interpretation of seed-water interaction modelled and analysed by principal component analysis, ordinary least squares (OLS), partial least squares (PLS), bi-orthogonal least squares (BPLS) and genetic algorithms. The potential of using multivariate NIR calibration models for seed classification was demonstrated using filled viable and non-viable seeds that could be separated with an accuracy of 98-99%. It was also shown that multivariate NIR calibration models gave low errors (0.7% and 1.9%) in prediction of seed moisture content for bulk seed and single seeds, respectively, using either NIR reflectance or transmittance spectroscopy. Genetic algorithms selected three to eight wavelength bands in the NIR region and these narrow bands gave about the same prediction of seed moisture content (0.6% and 1.7%) as using the whole NIR interval in the PLS regression models. The selected regions were simulated as NIR filters in OLS regression resulting in predictions of the same quality (0.7 % and 2.1%). This finding opens possibilities to apply NIR sensors in fast and simple spectrometers for the determination of seed moisture content. Near infrared (NIR) radiation interacts with overtones of vibrating bonds in polar molecules. The resulting spectra contain chemical and physical information. This offers good possibilities to measure seed-water interactions, but also to interpret processes within seeds. It is shown that seed-water interaction involves both transitions and changes mainly in covalent bonds of O-H, C-H, C=O and N-H emanating from ongoing physiological processes like seed respiration and protein metabolism. I propose that BPLS analysis that has orthonormal loadings and orthogonal scores giving the same predictions as using conventional PLS regression, should be used as a standard to harmonise the interpretation of NIR spectra

Network meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy studies identifies and ranks the optimal diagnostic tests and thresholds for healthcare policy and decision making

Objective: Network meta-analyses have extensively been used to compare the effectiveness of multiple interventions for healthcare policy and decision-making. However, methods for evaluating the performance of multiple diagnostic tests are less established. In a decision-making context, we are often interested in comparing and ranking the performance of multiple diagnostic tests, at varying levels of test thresholds, in one simultaneous analysis. Study design and setting: Motivated by an example of cognitive impairment diagnosis following stroke, we synthesized data from 13 studies assessing the efficiency of two diagnostic tests: Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA), at two test thresholds: MMSE <25/30 and <27/30, and MoCA <22/30 and <26/30. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, we fitted a bivariate network meta-analysis model incorporating constraints on increasing test threshold, and accounting for the correlations between multiple test accuracy measures from the same study. Results: We developed and successfully fitted a model comparing multiple tests/threshold combinations while imposing threshold constraints. Using this model, we found that MoCA at threshold <26/30 appeared to have the best true positive rate, whilst MMSE at threshold <25/30 appeared to have the best true negative rate. Conclusion: The combined analysis of multiple tests at multiple thresholds allowed for more rigorous comparisons between competing diagnostics tests for decision making

Data-driven Soft Sensors in the Process Industry

In the last two decades Soft Sensors established themselves as a valuable alternative to the traditional means for the acquisition of critical process variables, process monitoring and other tasks which are related to process control. This paper discusses characteristics of the process industry data which are critical for the development of data-driven Soft Sensors. These characteristics are common to a large number of process industry fields, like the chemical industry, bioprocess industry, steel industry, etc. The focus of this work is put on the data-driven Soft Sensors because of their growing popularity, already demonstrated usefulness and huge, though yet not completely realised, potential. A comprehensive selection of case studies covering the three most important Soft Sensor application fields, a general introduction to the most popular Soft Sensor modelling techniques as well as a discussion of some open issues in the Soft Sensor development and maintenance and their possible solutions are the main contributions of this work

Non-destructive soluble solids content determination for ‘Rocha’ Pear Based on VIS-SWNIR spectroscopy under ‘Real World’ sorting facility conditions

In this paper we report a method to determine the soluble solids content (SSC) of 'Rocha' pear (Pyrus communis L. cv. Rocha) based on their short-wave NIR reflectance spectra (500-1100 nm) measured in conditions similar to those found in packinghouse fruit sorting facilities. We obtained 3300 reflectance spectra from pears acquired from different lots, producers and with diverse storage times and ripening stages. The macroscopic properties of the pears, such as size, temperature and SSC were measured under controlled laboratory conditions. For the spectral analysis, we implemented a computational pipeline that incorporates multiple pre-processing techniques including a feature selection procedure, various multivariate regression models and three different validation strategies. This benchmark allowed us to find the best model/preproccesing procedure for SSC prediction from our data. From the several calibration models tested, we have found that Support Vector Machines provides the best predictions metrics with an RMSEP of around 0.82 ∘ Brix and 1.09 ∘ Brix for internal and external validation strategies respectively. The latter validation was implemented to assess the prediction accuracy of this calibration method under more 'real world-like' conditions. We also show that incorporating information about the fruit temperature and size to the calibration models improves SSC predictability. Our results indicate that the methodology presented here could be implemented in existing packinghouse facilities for single fruit SSC characterization.Funding Agency CEOT strategic project UID/Multi/00631/2019 project OtiCalFrut ALG-01-0247-FEDER-033652 Ideias em Caixa 2010, CAIXA GERAL DE DEPOSITOS Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia (Ciencia)info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Recent advances in directional statistics

Mainstream statistical methodology is generally applicable to data observed in Euclidean space. There are, however, numerous contexts of considerable scientific interest in which the natural supports for the data under consideration are Riemannian manifolds like the unit circle, torus, sphere and their extensions. Typically, such data can be represented using one or more directions, and directional statistics is the branch of statistics that deals with their analysis. In this paper we provide a review of the many recent developments in the field since the publication of Mardia and Jupp (1999), still the most comprehensive text on directional statistics. Many of those developments have been stimulated by interesting applications in fields as diverse as astronomy, medicine, genetics, neurology, aeronautics, acoustics, image analysis, text mining, environmetrics, and machine learning. We begin by considering developments for the exploratory analysis of directional data before progressing to distributional models, general approaches to inference, hypothesis testing, regression, nonparametric curve estimation, methods for dimension reduction, classification and clustering, and the modelling of time series, spatial and spatio-temporal data. An overview of currently available software for analysing directional data is also provided, and potential future developments discussed.Comment: 61 page

Statistical approaches to the surveillance of infectious diseases for veterinary public health

This technical report covers the aspect of using statistical methodology for the monitoring of routinely collected surveillance data in veterinary public health. An account of the Farrington algorithm and Poisson cumulative sum schemes for the detection of aberrations is given with special attention devoted to the occurrence of seasonality and spatial aggregation of the time series. Modelling approaches for retrospective analysis of surveillance counts are described. To illustrate the applicability of the methodology in veterinary public health, data from the surveillance of rabies among fox in Hesse, Germany, are analysed