5,977 research outputs found
Optimal Invariant Similar Tests for Instrumental Variables Regression
This paper considers tests of the parameter on endogenous variables in an instrumental variables regression model. The focus is on determining tests that have certain optimal power properties. We start by considering a model with normally distributed errors and known error covariance matrix. We consider tests that are similar and satisfy a natural rotational invariance condition. We determine tests that maximize weighted average power (WAP) for arbitrary weight functions among invariant similar tests. Such tests include point optimal (PO) invariant similar tests. The results yield the power envelope for invariant similar tests. This allows one to assess and compare the power properties of existing tests, such as the Anderson-Rubin, Lagrange multiplier (LM), and conditional likelihood ratio (CLR) tests, and new optimal WAP and PO invariant similar tests. We find that the CLR test is quite close to being uniformly most powerful invariant among a class of two-sided tests. A new unconditional test, P*, also is found to have this property. For one-sided alternatives, no test achieves the invariant power envelope, but a new test. the one-sided CLR test. is found to be fairly close. The finite sample results of the paper are extended to the case of unknown error covariance matrix and possibly non-normal errors via weak instrument asymptotics. Strong instrument asymptotic results also are provided because we seek tests that perform well under both weak and
Optimal Invariant Similar Tests for Instrumental Variables Regression
This paper considers tests of the parameter on endogenous variables in an instrumental variables regression model. The focus is on determining tests that have some optimal power properties. We start by considering a model with normally distributed errors and known error covariance matrix. We consider tests that are similar and satisfy a natural rotational invariance condition. We determine tests that maximize weighted average power (WAP) for arbitrary weight functions among invariant similar tests. Such tests include point optimal (PO) invariant similar tests. The results yield the power envelope for invariant similar tests. This allows one to assess and compare the power properties of existing tests, such as the Anderson-Rubin, Lagrange multiplier (LM), and conditional likelihood ratio (CLR) tests, and new optimal WAP and PO invariant similar tests. We find that the CLR test is quite close to being uniformly most powerful invariant among a class of two-sided tests. A new unconditional test, P*, also is found to have this property. For one-sided alternatives, no test achieves the invariant power envelope, but a new test -- the one-sided CLR test -- is found to be fairly close. The finite sample results of the paper are extended to the case of unknown error covariance matrix and possibly non-normal errors via weak instrument asymptotics. Strong instrument asymptotic results also are provided because we seek tests that perform well under both weak and strong instruments.Instrumental variables regression, invariant tests, optimal tests, similar tests, weak instruments, weighted average power
Efficient inference about the tail weight in multivariate Student distributions
We propose a new testing procedure about the tail weight parameter of
multivariate Student distributions by having recourse to the Le Cam
methodology. Our test is asymptotically as efficient as the classical
likelihood ratio test, but outperforms the latter by its flexibility and
simplicity: indeed, our approach allows to estimate the location and scatter
nuisance parameters by any root- consistent estimators, hereby avoiding
numerically complex maximum likelihood estimation. The finite-sample properties
of our test are analyzed in a Monte Carlo simulation study, and we apply our
method on a financial data set. We conclude the paper by indicating how to use
this framework for efficient point estimation.Comment: 23 page
Demonstration of Enhanced Monte Carlo Computation of the Fisher Information for Complex Problems
The Fisher information matrix summarizes the amount of information in a set
of data relative to the quantities of interest. There are many applications of
the information matrix in statistical modeling, system identification and
parameter estimation. This short paper reviews a feedback-based method and an
independent perturbation approach for computing the information matrix for
complex problems, where a closed form of the information matrix is not
achievable. We show through numerical examples how these methods improve the
accuracy of the estimate of the information matrix compared to the basic
resampling-based approach. Some relevant theory is summarized
Exact asymptotic distribution of change-point mle for change in the mean of Gaussian sequences
We derive exact computable expressions for the asymptotic distribution of the
change-point mle when a change in the mean occurred at an unknown point of a
sequence of time-ordered independent Gaussian random variables. The derivation,
which assumes that nuisance parameters such as the amount of change and
variance are known, is based on ladder heights of Gaussian random walks hitting
the half-line. We then show that the exact distribution easily extends to the
distribution of the change-point mle when a change occurs in the mean vector of
a multivariate Gaussian process. We perform simulations to examine the accuracy
of the derived distribution when nuisance parameters have to be estimated as
well as robustness of the derived distribution to deviations from Gaussianity.
Through simulations, we also compare it with the well-known conditional
distribution of the mle, which may be interpreted as a Bayesian solution to the
change-point problem. Finally, we apply the derived methodology to monthly
averages of water discharges of the Nacetinsky creek, Germany.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOAS294 the Annals of
Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
Inference with Linear Equality and Inequality Constraints Using R: The Package ic.infer
In linear models and multivariate normal situations, prior information in linear inequality form may be encountered, or linear inequality hypotheses may be subjected to statistical tests. R package ic.infer has been developed to support inequality-constrained estimation and testing for such situations. This article gives an overview of the principles underlying inequality-constrained inference that are far less well-known than methods for unconstrained or equality-constrained models, and describes their implementation in the package.
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