Robust bayesian inference in empirical regression models.

Broadening the stochastic assumptions on the error terms of regression models was prompted by the analysis of linear multivariate t models in Zellner (1976). We consider a possible non-linear regression model under any multivariate elliptical data density, and examine Bayesian posterior and productive results. The latter are shown to be robust with respect to the specific choice of a sampling density within this elliptical class. In particular, sufficient conditions for such model robustness are that we single out a precision factor T2 on which we can specify an improper prior density. Apart from the posterior distribution of this nuisance parameter T 2, the entire analysis will then be completely unaffected by departures from Normality. Similar results hold in finite mixtures of such elliptical densities, which can be used to average out specification uncertainty.Multivariate elliptical data densities; Model robustness; Improper priors; Finite mixtures;

Robust bayesian inference in empirical regression models

Broadening the stochastic assumptions on the error terms of regression models was prompted by the analysis of linear multivariate t models in Zellner (1976). We consider a possible non-linear regression model under any multivariate elliptical data density, and examine Bayesian posterior and productive results. The latter are shown to be robust with respect to the specific choice of a sampling density within this elliptical class. In particular, sufficient conditions for such model robustness are that we single out a precision factor T2 on which we can specify an improper prior density. Apart from the posterior distribution of this nuisance parameter T 2, the entire analysis will then be completely unaffected by departures from Normality. Similar results hold in finite mixtures of such elliptical densities, which can be used to average out specification uncertainty

Multivariate Student -t Regression Models: Pitfalls and Inference

We consider likelihood-based inference from multivariate regression models with independent Student-t errors. Some very intruiging pitfalls of both Bayesian and classical methods on the basis of point observations are uncovered. Bayesian inference may be precluded as a consequence of the coarse nature of the data. Global maximization of the likelihood function is a vacuous exercise since the likelihood function is unbounded as we tend to the boundary of the parameter space. A Bayesian analysis on the basis of set observations is proposed and illustrated by several examples.Bayesian inference;Coarse data;Continuous distribution;Maximum likelihood;Missing data;Scale mixture of Normals

Stress Testing with Student's t Dependence

In this study we propose the use of the Student's t dependence function to model dependence between asset returns when conducting stress tests. To properly include stress testing in a risk management system, it is important to have accurate information about the (joint) probabilities of extreme outcomes. Consequently, a model for the behavior of risk factors is necessary, specifying the marginal distributions and their dependence. Traditionally, dependence is described by a correlation matrix, implying the use of the dependence function inherent in the multivariate normal (Gaussian) distribution. Recent studies have cast serious doubt on the appropriateness of the Gaussian dependence function to model dependence between extreme negative returns. The student's t dependence function provides an attractive alternative. In this paper, we introduce four tests to analyze the empirical fit of both dependence functions. The empirical results indicate that probabilities assigned to stress tests are largely influenced by the choice of dependence function. The statistical tests reject the Gaussian dependence function, but do not reject the Student's t dependence function.copulas;dependence;extreme values;tail dependence;stress testing

Posterior Consistency in Conditional Density Estimation by Covariate Dependent Mixtures

This paper considers Bayesian nonparametric estimation of conditional densities by countable mixtures of location-scale densities with covariate dependent mixing probabilities. The mixing probabilities are modeled in two ways. First, we consider finite covariate dependent mixture models, in which the mixing probabilities are proportional to a product of a constant and a kernel and a prior on the number of mixture components is specified. Second, we consider kernel stick-breaking processes for modeling the mixing probabilities. We show that the posterior in these two models is weakly and strongly consistent for a large class of data generating processes.Bayesian nonparametrics, posterior consistency, conditional density estimation, mixtures of normal distributions, location-scale mixtures, smoothly mixing regressions, mixtures of experts, dependent Dirichlet process, kernel stick-breaking process

Multivariate soft rank via entropic optimal transport: sample efficiency and generative modeling

The framework of optimal transport has been leveraged to extend the notion of rank to the multivariate setting while preserving desirable properties of the resulting goodness of-fit (GoF) statistics. In particular, the rank energy (RE) and rank maximum mean discrepancy (RMMD) are distribution-free under the null, exhibit high power in statistical testing, and are robust to outliers. In this paper, we point to and alleviate some of the practical shortcomings of these proposed GoF statistics, namely their high computational cost, high statistical sample complexity, and lack of differentiability with respect to the data. We show that all these practically important issues are addressed by considering entropy-regularized optimal transport maps in place of the rank map, which we refer to as the soft rank. We consequently propose two new statistics, the soft rank energy (sRE) and soft rank maximum mean discrepancy (sRMMD), which exhibit several desirable properties. Given $n$ sample data points, we provide non-asymptotic convergence rates for the sample estimate of the entropic transport map to its population version that are essentially of the order $n^{-1/2}$. This compares favorably to non-regularized estimates, which typically suffer from the curse-of-dimensionality and converge at rate that is exponential in the data dimension. We leverage this fast convergence rate to demonstrate the sample estimate of the proposed statistics converge rapidly to their population versions, enabling efficient rank-based GoF statistical computation, even in high dimensions. Our statistics are differentiable and amenable to popular machine learning frameworks that rely on gradient methods. We leverage these properties towards showcasing the utility of the proposed statistics for generative modeling on two important problems: image generation and generating valid knockoffs for controlled feature selection.Comment: 43 pages, 10 figures. Replacement note: Title change, author changes, new theoretical results, revised and expanded experimental evaluation

The Applications of Mixtures of Normal Distributions in Empirical Finance: A Selected Survey

This paper provides a selected review of the recent developments and applications of mixtures of normal (MN) distribution models in empirical finance. Once attractive property of the MN model is that it is flexible enough to accommodate various shapes of continuous distributions, and able to capture leptokurtic, skewed and multimodal characteristics of financial time series data. In addition, the MN-based analysis fits well with the related regime-switching literature. The survey is conducted under two broad themes: (1) minimum-distance estimation methods, and (2) financial modeling and its applications.Mixtures of Normal, Maximum Likelihood, Moment Generating Function, Characteristic Function, Switching Regression Model, (G) ARCH Model, Stochastic Volatility Model, Autoregressive Conditional Duration Model, Stochastic Duration Model, Value at Risk.

Predictive Inference Based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo Output

In Bayesian inference, predictive distributions are typically in the form of samples generated via Markov chain Monte Carlo or related algorithms. In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of how to make and evaluate probabilistic forecasts from such simulation output. Based on proper scoring rules, we develop a notion of consistency that allows to assess the adequacy of methods for estimating the stationary distribution underlying the simulation output. We then provide asymptotic results that account for the salient features of Bayesian posterior simulators and derive conditions under which choices from the literature satisfy our notion of consistency. Importantly, these conditions depend on the scoring rule being used, such that the choices of approximation method and scoring rule are intertwined. While the logarithmic rule requires fairly stringent conditions, the continuous ranked probability score yields consistent approximations under minimal assumptions. These results are illustrated in a simulation study and an economic data example. Overall, mixture‐of‐parameters approximations that exploit the parametric structure of Bayesian models perform particularly well. Under the continuous ranked probability score, the empirical distribution function is a simple and appealing alternative option

Modelling the joint distribution of competing risks survival times using copula functions

The problem of modelling the joint distribution of survival times in a competing risks model, using copula functions is considered. In order to evaluate this joint distribution and the related overall survival function, a system of non-linear differential equations is solved, which relates the crude and net survival functions of the modelled competing risks, through the copula. A similar approach to modelling dependent multiple decrements was applied by Carriere (1994) who used a Gaussian copula applied to an incomplete double decrement model which makes it difficult to calculate any actuarial functions and draw relevant conclusions. Here, we extend this methodology by studying the effect of complete and partial elimination of up to four competing risks on the overall survival function, the life expectancy and life annuity values. We further investigate how different choices of the copula function affect the resulting joint distribution of survival times and in particular the actuarial functions which are of importance in pricing life insurance and annuity products. For illustrative purposes, we have used a real data set and used extrapolation to prepare a complete multiple decrement model up to age 120. Extensive numerical results illustrate the sensitivity of the model with respect to the choice ofcopula and its parameter(s)