Analytics and optimization for emergency healthcare processes

This thesis deals with the analysis and management of emergency healthcare processes through the use of advanced analytics and optimization approaches. Emergency processes are among the most complex within healthcare. This is due to their non-elective nature and their high variability. This thesis is divided into two topics. The first one concerns the core of emergency healthcare processes, the emergency department (ED). In the second chapter, we describe the ED that is the case study. This is a real case study with data derived from a large ED located in northern Italy. In the next two chapters, we introduce two tools for supporting ED activities. The first one is a new type of analytics model. Its aim is to overcome the traditional methods of analyzing the activities provided in the ED by means of an algorithm that analyses the ED pathway (organized as event log) as a whole. The second tool is a decision-support system, which integrates a deep neural network for the prediction of patient pathways, and an online simulator to evaluate the evolution of the ED over time. Its purpose is to provide a set of solutions to prevent and solve the problem of the ED overcrowding. The second part of the thesis focuses on the COVID-19 pandemic emergency. In the fifth chapter, we describe a tool that was used by the Bologna local health authority in the first part of the pandemic. Its purpose is to analyze the clinical pathway of a patient and from this automatically assign them a state. Physicians used the state for routing the patients to the correct clinical pathways. The last chapter is dedicated to the description of a MIP model, which was used for the organization of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign in the city of Bologna, Italy

A Survey on Aerial Swarm Robotics

The use of aerial swarms to solve real-world problems has been increasing steadily, accompanied by falling prices and improving performance of communication, sensing, and processing hardware. The commoditization of hardware has reduced unit costs, thereby lowering the barriers to entry to the field of aerial swarm robotics. A key enabling technology for swarms is the family of algorithms that allow the individual members of the swarm to communicate and allocate tasks amongst themselves, plan their trajectories, and coordinate their flight in such a way that the overall objectives of the swarm are achieved efficiently. These algorithms, often organized in a hierarchical fashion, endow the swarm with autonomy at every level, and the role of a human operator can be reduced, in principle, to interactions at a higher level without direct intervention. This technology depends on the clever and innovative application of theoretical tools from control and estimation. This paper reviews the state of the art of these theoretical tools, specifically focusing on how they have been developed for, and applied to, aerial swarms. Aerial swarms differ from swarms of ground-based vehicles in two respects: they operate in a three-dimensional space and the dynamics of individual vehicles adds an extra layer of complexity. We review dynamic modeling and conditions for stability and controllability that are essential in order to achieve cooperative flight and distributed sensing. The main sections of this paper focus on major results covering trajectory generation, task allocation, adversarial control, distributed sensing, monitoring, and mapping. Wherever possible, we indicate how the physics and subsystem technologies of aerial robots are brought to bear on these individual areas

Receding Horizon based Cooperative Vehicle Control with Optimal Task Allocation

The problem of cooperative multi-target interception in an uncertain environment is investigated in this thesis. The targets arrive in the mission space sequentially at a priori unknown time instants and a priori unknown locations, and then move on a priori unknown trajectories. A group of vehicles with known dynamics are employed to visit the targets as quickly and efficiently as possible. To this end, a time-discounting reward is defined for each target which can be collected only if one of the vehicles visits that target. A cooperative receding horizon scheme is designed, which predicts the future positions of the targets and maximizes the estimate of the expected total collectible rewards, accordingly. The problem is initially investigated for the case when there are a finite number of targets arriving in the mission space sequentially. It is shown that the number of targets that are not visited by any vehicle in the mission space will be sufficiently small if the targets arrive sufficiently infrequently. The problem is then generalized to the case of infinite number of targets and a finite-time convergence analysis is also presented. A more practical case where the vehicles have limited sensing and communication ranges is also investigated using a game-theoretic approach. The problem is then solved for the case when a cluster of vehicles is required to visit each target. Simulations confirm the efficacy of the proposed strategies

The Autonomous Attack Aviation Problem

An autonomous unmanned combat aerial vehicle (AUCAV) performing an air-to-ground attack mission must make sequential targeting and routing decisions under uncertainty. We formulate a Markov decision process model of this autonomous attack aviation problem (A3P) and solve it using an approximate dynamic programming (ADP) approach. We develop an approximate policy iteration algorithm that implements a least squares temporal difference learning mechanism to solve the A3P. Basis functions are developed and tested for application within the ADP algorithm. The ADP policy is compared to a benchmark policy, the DROP policy, which is determined by repeatedly solving a deterministic orienteering problem as the system evolves. Designed computational experiments of eight problem instances are conducted to compare the two policies with respect to their quality of solution, computational efficiency, and robustness. The ADP policy is superior in 2 of 8 problem instances - those instances with less AUCAV fuel and a low target arrival rate - whereas the DROP policy is superior in 6 of 8 problem instances. The ADP policy outperforms the DROP policy with respect to computational efficiency in all problem instances

Surrogate model for real time signal control: theories and applications

Traffic signal controls play a vital role in urban road traffic networks. Compared with fixed-time signal control, which is solely based on historical data, real time signal control is flexible and responsive to varying traffic conditions, and hence promises better performance and robustness in managing traffic congestion. Real time signal control can be divided into model-based and model-free approaches. The former requires a traffic model (analytical or simulation-based) in the generation, optimisation and evaluation of signal control plans, which means that its efficacy in real-world deployment depends on the validity and accuracy of the underlying traffic model. Model-free real time signal control, on the other hand, is constructed based on expert experience and empirical observations. Most of the existing model-free real time signal controls, however, focus on learning-based and rule-based approaches, and either lack interpretability or are non-optimised. This thesis proposes a surrogate-based real time signal control and optimisation framework, that can determine signal decisions in a centralised manner without the use of any traffic model. Surrogate models offer analytical and efficient approximations of complex models or black-box processes by fitting their input-output structures with appropriate mathematical tools. Current research on surrogate-based optimisation is limited to strategic and off-line optimisation, which only approximates the relationship between decisions and outputs under highly specific conditions based on certain traffic simulation models and is still to be attempted for real time optimisation. This thesis proposes a framework for surrogate-based real time signal control, by constructing a response surface that encompasses, (1) traffic states, (2) control parameters, and (3) network performance indicators at the same time. A series of comprehensive evaluations are conducted to assess the effectiveness, robustness and computational efficiency of the surrogate-based real time signal control. In the numerical test, the Kriging model is selected to approximate the traffic dynamics of the test network. The results show that this Kriging-based real time signal control can increase the total throughput by 5.3% and reduce the average delay by 8.1% compared with the fixed-time baseline signal plan. In addition, the optimisation time can be reduced by more than 99% if the simulation model is replaced by a Kriging model. The proposed signal controller is further investigated via multi-scenario analyses involving different levels of information availability, network saturation and traffic uncertainty, which shows the robustness and reliability of the controller. Moreover, the influence of the baseline signal on the Kriging-based signal control can be eliminated by a series of off-line updates. By virtue of the model-free nature and the adaptive learning capability of the surrogate model, the Kriging-based real time signal control can adapt to systematic network changes (such as seasonal variations in traffic demand). The adaptive Kriging-based real time signal control can update the response surface according to the feedback from the actual traffic environment. The test results show that the adaptive Kriging-based real time signal control maintains the signal control performance better in response to systematic network changes than either fixed-time signal control or non-adaptive Kriging-based signal control.Open Acces

Collision Free Navigation of a Multi-Robot Team for Intruder Interception

In this report, we propose a decentralised motion control algorithm for the mobile robots to intercept an intruder entering (k-intercepting) or escaping (e-intercepting) a protected region. In continuation, we propose a decentralized navigation strategy (dynamic-intercepting) for a multi-robot team known as predators to intercept the intruders or in the other words, preys, from escaping a siege ring which is created by the predators. A necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of a solution of this problem is obtained. Furthermore, we propose an intelligent game-based decision-making algorithm (IGD) for a fleet of mobile robots to maximize the probability of detection in a bounded region. We prove that the proposed decentralised cooperative and non-cooperative game-based decision-making algorithm enables each robot to make the best decision to choose the shortest path with minimum local information. Then we propose a leader-follower based collision-free navigation control method for a fleet of mobile robots to traverse an unknown cluttered environment where is occupied by multiple obstacles to trap a target. We prove that each individual team member is able to traverse safely in the region, which is cluttered by many obstacles with any shapes to trap the target while using the sensors in some indefinite switching points and not continuously, which leads to saving energy consumption and increasing the battery life of the robots consequently. And finally, we propose a novel navigation strategy for a unicycle mobile robot in a cluttered area with moving obstacles based on virtual field force algorithm. The mathematical proof of the navigation laws and the computer simulations are provided to confirm the validity, robustness, and reliability of the proposed methods