Merging multiple precipitation sources for flash flood forecasting

We investigated the effectiveness of combining gauge observations and satellite-derived precipitation on flood forecasting. Two data merging processes were proposed: the first one assumes that the individual precipitation measurement is non-bias, while the second process assumes that each precipitation source is biased and both weighting factor and bias parameters are to be calculated. Best weighting factors as well as the bias parameters were calculated by minimizing the error of hourly runoff prediction over Wu-Tu watershed in Taiwan. To simulate the hydrologic response from various sources of rainfall sequences, in our experiment, a recurrent neural network (RNN) model was used. The results demonstrate that the merged method used in this study can efficiently combine the information from both rainfall sources to improve the accuracy of flood forecasting during typhoon periods. The contribution of satellite-based rainfall, being represented by the weighting factor, to the merging product, however, is highly related to the effectiveness of ground-based rainfall observation provided gauged. As the number of gauge observations in the basin is increased, the effectiveness of satellite-based observation to the merged rainfall is reduced. This is because the gauge measurements provide sufficient information for flood forecasting; as a result the improvements added on satellite-based rainfall are limited. This study provides a potential advantage for extending satellite-derived precipitation to those watersheds where gauge observations are limited. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

First AGILE Catalog of High Confidence Gamma-Ray Sources

We present the first catalog of high-confidence gamma-ray sources detected by the AGILE satellite during observations performed from July 9, 2007 to June 30, 2008. Catalogued sources are detected by merging all the available data over the entire time period. AGILE, launched in April 2007, is an ASI mission devoted to gamma-ray observations in the 30 MeV - 50 GeV energy range, with simultaneous X-ray imaging capability in the 18-60 keV band. This catalog is based on Gamma-Ray Imaging Detector (GRID) data for energies greater than 100 MeV. For the first AGILE catalog we adopted a conservative analysis, with a high-quality event filter optimized to select gamma-ray events within the central zone of the instrument Field of View (radius of 40 degrees). This is a significance-limited (4 sigma) catalog, and it is not a complete flux-limited sample due to the non-uniform first year AGILE sky coverage. The catalog includes 47 sources, 21 of which are associated with confirmed or candidate pulsars, 13 with Blazars (7 FSRQ, 4 BL Lacs, 2 unknown type), 2 with HMXRBs, 2 with SNRs, 1 with a colliding-wind binary system, 8 with unidentified sources.Comment: Revised version, 15 pages, 3 figures, 3 tables. To be published in Astronomy and Astrophysics. Text improved and clarified. Refined analysis of complex regions of the Galactic plane yields a new list of high-confidence sources including 47 sources (compared with the 40 sources appearing in the first version

The aceToolbox: low-level audiovisual feature extraction for retrieval and classification

In this paper we present an overview of a software platform that has been developed within the aceMedia project, termed the aceToolbox, that provides global and local lowlevel feature extraction from audio-visual content. The toolbox is based on the MPEG-7 eXperimental Model (XM), with extensions to provide descriptor extraction from arbitrarily shaped image segments, thereby supporting local descriptors reflecting real image content. We describe the architecture of the toolbox as well as providing an overview of the descriptors supported to date. We also briefly describe the segmentation algorithm provided. We then demonstrate the usefulness of the toolbox in the context of two different content processing scenarios: similarity-based retrieval in large collections and scene-level classification of still images

An Incremental Construction of Deep Neuro Fuzzy System for Continual Learning of Non-stationary Data Streams

Existing FNNs are mostly developed under a shallow network configuration having lower generalization power than those of deep structures. This paper proposes a novel self-organizing deep FNN, namely DEVFNN. Fuzzy rules can be automatically extracted from data streams or removed if they play limited role during their lifespan. The structure of the network can be deepened on demand by stacking additional layers using a drift detection method which not only detects the covariate drift, variations of input space, but also accurately identifies the real drift, dynamic changes of both feature space and target space. DEVFNN is developed under the stacked generalization principle via the feature augmentation concept where a recently developed algorithm, namely gClass, drives the hidden layer. It is equipped by an automatic feature selection method which controls activation and deactivation of input attributes to induce varying subsets of input features. A deep network simplification procedure is put forward using the concept of hidden layer merging to prevent uncontrollable growth of dimensionality of input space due to the nature of feature augmentation approach in building a deep network structure. DEVFNN works in the sample-wise fashion and is compatible for data stream applications. The efficacy of DEVFNN has been thoroughly evaluated using seven datasets with non-stationary properties under the prequential test-then-train protocol. It has been compared with four popular continual learning algorithms and its shallow counterpart where DEVFNN demonstrates improvement of classification accuracy. Moreover, it is also shown that the concept drift detection method is an effective tool to control the depth of network structure while the hidden layer merging scenario is capable of simplifying the network complexity of a deep network with negligible compromise of generalization performance.Comment: This paper has been published in IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy System

Bias adjustment of satellite precipitation estimation using ground-based measurement: A case study evaluation over the southwestern United States

Reliable precipitation measurement is a crucial component in hydrologic studies. Although satellite-based observation is able to provide spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation, the measurements tend to show systematic bias. This paper introduces a grid-based precipitation merging procedure in which satellite estimates from the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS) are adjusted based on the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) daily rain gauge analysis. To remove the bias, the hourly CCS estimates were spatially and temporally accumulated to the daily 1°×1° scale, the resolution of CPC rain gauge analysis. The daily CCS bias was then downscaled to the hourly temporal scale to correct hourly CCS estimates. The bias corrected CCS estimates are called the adjusted CCS (CCSA) product. With the adjustment from the gauge measurement, CCSA data have been generated to provide more reliable high temporal/spatial-resolution precipitation estimates. In the case study, the CCSA precipitation estimates from the proposed approach are compared against ground-based measurements in high-density gauge networks located in the southwestern United States. © 2009 American Meteorological Society

Context Trees: Augmenting Geospatial Trajectories with Context

Exposing latent knowledge in geospatial trajectories has the potential to provide a better understanding of the movements of individuals and groups. Motivated by such a desire, this work presents the context tree, a new hierarchical data structure that summarises the context behind user actions in a single model. We propose a method for context tree construction that augments geospatial trajectories with land usage data to identify such contexts. Through evaluation of the construction method and analysis of the properties of generated context trees, we demonstrate the foundation for understanding and modelling behaviour afforded. Summarising user contexts into a single data structure gives easy access to information that would otherwise remain latent, providing the basis for better understanding and predicting the actions and behaviours of individuals and groups. Finally, we also present a method for pruning context trees, for use in applications where it is desirable to reduce the size of the tree while retaining useful information