Gaussian Process Regression for Estimating EM Ducting Within the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer

We show that Gaussian process regression (GPR) can be used to infer the electromagnetic (EM) duct height within the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) from sparsely sampled propagation factors within the context of bistatic radars. We use GPR to calculate the posterior predictive distribution on the labels (i.e. duct height) from both noise-free and noise-contaminated array of propagation factors. For duct height inference from noise-contaminated propagation factors, we compare a naive approach, utilizing one random sample from the input distribution (i.e. disregarding the input noise), with an inverse-variance weighted approach, utilizing a few random samples to estimate the true predictive distribution. The resulting posterior predictive distributions from these two approaches are compared to a "ground truth" distribution, which is approximated using a large number of Monte-Carlo samples. The ability of GPR to yield accurate and fast duct height predictions using a few training examples indicates the suitability of the proposed method for real-time applications.Comment: 15 pages, 6 figure

De-Biased Machine Learning of Global and Local Parameters Using Regularized Riesz Representers

We provide adaptive inference methods, based on $\ell_1$ regularization, for regular (semiparametric) and non-regular (nonparametric) linear functionals of the conditional expectation function. Examples of regular functionals include average treatment effects, policy effects, and derivatives. Examples of non-regular functionals include average treatment effects, policy effects, and derivatives conditional on a covariate subvector fixed at a point. We construct a Neyman orthogonal equation for the target parameter that is approximately invariant to small perturbations of the nuisance parameters. To achieve this property, we include the Riesz representer for the functional as an additional nuisance parameter. Our analysis yields weak "double sparsity robustness": either the approximation to the regression or the approximation to the representer can be "completely dense" as long as the other is sufficiently "sparse". Our main results are non-asymptotic and imply asymptotic uniform validity over large classes of models, translating into honest confidence bands for both global and local parameters

AMANDA : density-based adaptive model for nonstationary data under extreme verification latency scenarios

Gradual concept-drift refers to a smooth and gradual change in the relations between input and output data in the underlying distribution over time. The problem generates a model obsolescence and consequently a quality decrease in predictions. Besides, there is a challenging task during the stream: The extreme verification latency (EVL) to verify the labels. For batch scenarios, state-of-the-art methods propose an adaptation of a supervised model by using an unconstrained least squares importance fitting (uLSIF) algorithm or a semi-supervised approach along with a core support extraction (CSE) method. However, these methods do not properly tackle the mentioned problems due to their high computational time for large data volumes, lack in representing the right samples of the drift or even for having several parameters for tuning. Therefore, we propose a density-based adaptive model for nonstationary data (AMANDA), which uses a semi-supervised classifier along with a CSE method. AMANDA has two variations: AMANDA with a fixed cutting percentage (AMANDA-FCP); and AMANDA with a dynamic cutting percentage (AMANDADCP). Our results indicate that the two variations of AMANDA outperform the state-of-the-art methods for almost all synthetic datasets and real ones with an improvement up to 27.98% regarding the average error. We have found that the use of AMANDA-FCP improved the results for a gradual concept-drift even with a small size of initial labeled data. Moreover, our results indicate that SSL classifiers are improved when they work along with our static or dynamic CSE methods. Therefore, we emphasize the importance of research directions based on this approach.Concept-drift gradual refere-se à mudança suave e gradual na distribuição dos dados conforme o tempo passa. Este problema causa obsolescência no modelo de aprendizado e queda na qualidade das previsões. Além disso, existe um complicador durante o processamento dos dados: a latência de verificação extrema (LVE) para se verificar os rótulos. Métodos do estado da arte propõem uma adaptação do modelo supervisionado usando uma abordagem de estimação de importância baseado em mínimos quadrados ou usando uma abordagem semi-supervisionada em conjunto com a extração de instâncias centrais, na sigla em inglês (CSE). Entretanto, estes métodos não tratam adequadamente os problemas mencionados devido ao fato de requererem alto tempo computacional para processar grandes volumes de dados, falta de correta seleção das instâncias que representam a mudança da distribuição, ou ainda por demandarem o ajuste de grande quantidade de parâmetros. Portanto, propomos um modelo adaptativo baseado em densidades para dados não-estacionários (AMANDA), que tem como base um classificador semi-supervisionado e um método CSE baseado em densidade. AMANDA tem duas variações: percentual de corte fixo (AMANDAFCP); e percentual de corte dinâmico (AMANDA-DCP). Nossos resultados indicam que as duas variações da proposta superam o estado da arte em quase todas as bases de dados sintéticas e reais em até 27,98% em relação ao erro médio. Concluímos que a aplicação do método AMANDA-FCP faz com que a classificação melhore mesmo quando há uma pequena porção inicial de dados rotulados. Mais ainda, os classificadores semi-supervisionados são melhorados quando trabalham em conjunto com nossos métodos de CSE, estático ou dinâmico