Online Bearing Remaining Useful Life Prediction Based on a Novel Degradation Indicator and Convolutional Neural Networks

In industrial applications, nearly half the failures of motors are caused by the degradation of rolling element bearings (REBs). Therefore, accurately estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) for REBs are of crucial importance to ensure the reliability and safety of mechanical systems. To tackle this challenge, model-based approaches are often limited by the complexity of mathematical modeling. Conventional data-driven approaches, on the other hand, require massive efforts to extract the degradation features and construct health index. In this paper, a novel online data-driven framework is proposed to exploit the adoption of deep convolutional neural networks (CNN) in predicting the RUL of bearings. More concretely, the raw vibrations of training bearings are first processed using the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) and a novel nonlinear degradation indicator is constructed as the label for learning. The CNN is then employed to identify the hidden pattern between the extracted degradation indicator and the vibration of training bearings, which makes it possible to estimate the degradation of the test bearings automatically. Finally, testing bearings' RULs are predicted by using a $\epsilon$-support vector regression model. The superior performance of the proposed RUL estimation framework, compared with the state-of-the-art approaches, is demonstrated through the experimental results. The generality of the proposed CNN model is also validated by transferring to bearings undergoing different operating conditions

Intelligent Health Monitoring of Machine Bearings Based on Feature Extraction

This document is the Accepted Manuscript of the following article: Mohammed Chalouli, Nasr-eddine Berrached, and Mouloud Denai, ‘Intelligent Health Monitoring of Machine Bearings Based on Feature Extraction’, Journal of Failure Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 17 (5): 1053-1066, October 2017. Under embargo. Embargo end date: 31 August 2018. The final publication is available at Springer via DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11668-017-0343-y.Finding reliable condition monitoring solutions for large-scale complex systems is currently a major challenge in industrial research. Since fault diagnosis is directly related to the features of a system, there have been many research studies aimed to develop methods for the selection of the relevant features. Moreover, there are no universal features for a particular application domain such as machine diagnosis. For example, in machine bearing fault diagnosis, these features are often selected by an expert or based on previous experience. Thus, for each bearing machine type, the relevant features must be selected. This paper attempts to solve the problem of relevant features identification by building an automatic fault diagnosis process based on relevant feature selection using a data-driven approach. The proposed approach starts with the extraction of the time-domain features from the input signals. Then, a feature reduction algorithm based on cross-correlation filter is applied to reduce the time and cost of the processing. Unsupervised learning mechanism using K-means++ selects the relevant fault features based on the squared Euclidian distance between different health states. Finally, the selected features are used as inputs to a self-organizing map producing our health indicator. The proposed method is tested on roller bearing benchmark datasets.Peer reviewe

Degradation Modeling and RUL Prediction Using Wiener Process Subject to Multiple Change Points and Unit Heterogeneity

Degradation modeling is critical for health condition monitoring and remaining useful life prediction (RUL). The prognostic accuracy highly depends on the capability of modeling the evolution of degradation signals. In many practical applications, however, the degradation signals show multiple phases, where the conventional degradation models are often inadequate. To better characterize the degradation signals of multiple-phase characteristics, we propose a multiple change-point Wiener process as a degradation model. To take into account the between-unit heterogeneity, a fully Bayesian approach is developed where all model parameters are assumed random. At the offline stage, an empirical two-stage process is proposed for model estimation, and a cross-validation approach is adopted for model selection. At the online stage, an exact recursive model updating algorithm is developed for online individual model estimation, and an effective Monte Carlo simulation approach is proposed for RUL prediction. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through thorough simulation studies and real case study

Domain Adaptation via Alignment of Operation Profile for Remaining Useful Lifetime Prediction

Effective Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) relies on accurate prediction of the Remaining Useful Life (RUL). Data-driven RUL prediction techniques rely heavily on the representativeness of the available time-to-failure trajectories. Therefore, these methods may not perform well when applied to data from new units of a fleet that follow different operating conditions than those they were trained on. This is also known as domain shifts. Domain adaptation (DA) methods aim to address the domain shift problem by extracting domain invariant features. However, DA methods do not distinguish between the different phases of operation, such as steady states or transient phases. This can result in misalignment due to under- or over-representation of different operation phases. This paper proposes two novel DA approaches for RUL prediction based on an adversarial domain adaptation framework that considers the different phases of the operation profiles separately. The proposed methodologies align the marginal distributions of each phase of the operation profile in the source domain with its counterpart in the target domain. The effectiveness of the proposed methods is evaluated using the New Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System (N-CMAPSS) dataset, where sub-fleets of turbofan engines operating in one of the three different flight classes (short, medium, and long) are treated as separate domains. The experimental results show that the proposed methods improve the accuracy of RUL predictions compared to current state-of-the-art DA methods.Comment: 18 pages,11 figure

Prognostics and health management for maintenance practitioners - Review, implementation and tools evaluation.

In literature, prognostics and health management (PHM) systems have been studied by many researchers from many different engineering fields to increase system reliability, availability, safety and to reduce the maintenance cost of engineering assets. Many works conducted in PHM research concentrate on designing robust and accurate models to assess the health state of components for particular applications to support decision making. Models which involve mathematical interpretations, assumptions and approximations make PHM hard to understand and implement in real world applications, especially by maintenance practitioners in industry. Prior knowledge to implement PHM in complex systems is crucial to building highly reliable systems. To fill this gap and motivate industry practitioners, this paper attempts to provide a comprehensive review on PHM domain and discusses important issues on uncertainty quantification, implementation aspects next to prognostics feature and tool evaluation. In this paper, PHM implementation steps consists of; (1) critical component analysis, (2) appropriate sensor selection for condition monitoring (CM), (3) prognostics feature evaluation under data analysis and (4) prognostics methodology and tool evaluation matrices derived from PHM literature. Besides PHM implementation aspects, this paper also reviews previous and on-going research in high-speed train bogies to highlight problems faced in train industry and emphasize the significance of PHM for further investigations

A data-driven failure prognostics method based on mixture of gaussians hidden markov models

International audienceThis paper addresses a data-driven prognostics method for the estimation of the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) and the associated confidence value of bearings. The proposed method is based on the utilization of the Wavelet Packet Decomposition (WPD) technique, and the Mixture of Gaussians Hidden Markov Models (MoG-HMM). The method relies on two phases: an off-line phase, and an on-line phase. During the first phase, the raw data provided by the sensors are first processed to extract features in the form of WPD coefficients. The extracted features are then fed to dedicated learning algorithms to estimate the parameters of a corresponding MoG-HMM, which best fits the degradation phenomenon. The generated model is exploited during the second phase to continuously assess the current health state of the physical component, and to estimate its RUL value with the associated confidence. The developed method is tested on benchmark data taken from the "NASA prognostics data repository" related to several experiments of failures on bearings done under different operating conditions. Furthermore, the method is compared to traditional time-feature prognostics and simulation results are given at the end of the paper. The results of the developed prognostics method, particularly the estimation of the RUL, can help improving the availability, reliability, and security while reducing the maintenance costs. Indeed, the RUL and associated confidence value are relevant information which can be used to take appropriate maintenance and exploitation decisions. In practice, this information may help the maintainers to prepare the necessary material and human resources before the occurrence of a failure. Thus, the traditional maintenance policies involving corrective and preventive maintenance can be replaced by condition based maintenance

Failure Diagnosis and Prognosis of Safety Critical Systems: Applications in Aerospace Industries

Many safety-critical systems such as aircraft, space crafts, and large power plants are required to operate in a reliable and efficient working condition without any performance degradation. As a result, fault diagnosis and prognosis (FDP) is a research topic of great interest in these systems. FDP systems attempt to use historical and current data of a system, which are collected from various measurements to detect faults, diagnose the types of possible failures, predict and manage failures in advance. This thesis deals with FDP of safety-critical systems. For this purpose, two critical systems including a multifunctional spoiler (MFS) and hydro-control value system are considered, and some challenging issues from the FDP are investigated. This research work consists of three general directions, i.e., monitoring, failure diagnosis, and prognosis. The proposed FDP methods are based on data-driven and model-based approaches. The main aim of the data-driven methods is to utilize measurement data from the system and forecast the remaining useful life (RUL) of the faulty components accurately and efficiently. In this regard, two dierent methods are developed. A modular FDP method based on a divide and conquer strategy is presented for the MFS system. The modular structure contains three components:1) fault diagnosis unit, 2) failure parameter estimation unit and 3) RUL unit. The fault diagnosis unit identifies types of faults based on an integration of neural network (NN) method and discrete wavelet transform (DWT) technique. Failure parameter estimation unit observes the failure parameter via a distributed neural network. Afterward, the RUL of the system is predicted by an adaptive Bayesian method. In another work, an innovative data-driven FDP method is developed for hydro-control valve systems. The idea is to use redundancy in multi-sensor data information and enhance the performance of the FDP system. Therefore, a combination of a feature selection method and support vector machine (SVM) method is applied to select proper sensors for monitoring of the hydro-valve system and isolate types of fault. Then, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) method is used to estimate the failure path. Similarly, an online Bayesian algorithm is implemented for forecasting RUL. Model-based methods employ high-delity physics-based model of a system for prognosis task. In this thesis, a novel model-based approach based on an integrated extended Kalman lter (EKF) and Bayesian method is introduced for the MFS system. To monitor the MFS system, a residual estimation method using EKF is performed to capture the progress of the failure. Later, a transformation is utilized to obtain a new measure to estimate the degradation path (DP). Moreover, the recursive Bayesian algorithm is invoked to predict the RUL. Finally, relative accuracy (RA) measure is utilized to assess the performance of the proposed methods

Failure Prognosis of Wind Turbine Components

Wind energy is playing an increasingly significant role in the World\u27s energy supply mix. In North America, many utility-scale wind turbines are approaching, or are beyond the half-way point of their originally anticipated lifespan. Accurate estimation of the times to failure of major turbine components can provide wind farm owners insight into how to optimize the life and value of their farm assets. This dissertation deals with fault detection and failure prognosis of critical wind turbine sub-assemblies, including generators, blades, and bearings based on data-driven approaches. The main aim of the data-driven methods is to utilize measurement data from the system and forecast the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of faulty components accurately and efficiently. The main contributions of this dissertation are in the application of ALTA lifetime analysis to help illustrate a possible relationship between varying loads and generators reliability, a wavelet-based Probability Density Function (PDF) to effectively detecting incipient wind turbine blade failure, an adaptive Bayesian algorithm for modeling the uncertainty inherent in the bearings RUL prediction horizon, and a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for characterizing the bearing damage progression based on varying operating states to mimic a real condition in which wind turbines operate and to recognize that the damage progression is a function of the stress applied to each component using data from historical failures across three different Canadian wind farms

Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Bearings Meta-Analysis of Experimental Procedure

In the domain of predictive maintenance, when trying to repli- cate and compare research in remaining useful life estimation (RUL), several inconsistencies and errors were identified in the experimental methodology used by various researchers. This makes the replication and the comparison of results diffi- cult, thus severely hindering both progress in this research do- main and its practical application to industry. We survey the literature to evaluate the experimental procedures that were used, and identify the most common errors and omission in both experimental procedures and reporting. A total of 70 papers on RUL were audited. From this meta- analysis we estimate that approximately 11% of the papers present work that will allow for replication and comparison. Surprisingly, only about 24.3% (17 of the 70 articles) com- pared their results with previous work. Of the remaining work, 41.4% generated and compared several models of their own and, somewhat unsettling, 31.4% of the researchers made no comparison whatsoever. The remaining 2.9% did not use the same data set for comparisons. The results of this study were also aggregated into 3 categories: problem class selec- tion, model fitting best practices and evaluation best practices. We conclude that model evaluation is the most problematic one. The main contribution of the article is a proposal of an ex- perimental protocol and several recommendations that specif- ically target model evaluation. Adherence to this protocol should substantially facilitate the research and application of RUL prediction models. The goals are to promote the collab- oration between scholars and practitioners alike and advance the research in this domain