A Decision Tool for Supplier Selection That Takes into Account Power and Performance

Companies select their suppliers to provide required performance while being successful partners. An important aspect of collaboration is the power relationship between the company and its suppliers. Although the significance of power in supplier selection is acknowledged, published work rarely includes assessment of power. An empirical study on selecting suppliers for new product developments in a major European diesel engine manufacturing company, supported by three smaller studies with electronic engineering companies, frames overall questions regarding the importance of incorporating power into supplier selection and how this might be achieved. This research proposes an approach that assesses both performance and power and integrates the assessment results by modelling the relative effects of power and performance. It positions the suppliers into six scenarios (ideal, satisfying, tolerable, unfavourable, risky and tough) which depict to what extent a supplier is ‘suitable’ to work with. A reverse analysis reviews the relationship when several suppliers appear suitable. An assessment method is developed incorporating both subjective and objective data for qualitative and quantitative criteria. It combines two decision making methods, AHP and TOPSIS, with triangular fuzzy numbers. Multiple judgements from several decision makers are synthesised. This method is adapted for performance assessment of single, group and cross-group suppliers. Weights are calculated for the criteria, and combined with calculations of supplier performance against each criterion to provide an overall assessment and supplier profile. Power is quantified against a set of power determinants and power relations (supplier dominance, buyer dominance and balanced) are determined. The effects of supplier perceptions (objective, optimistic and pessimistic) are estimated in the calculation. The proposed approach involves complex calculations and a prototype software tool is developed with graphical interfaces. The tool includes performance criteria and power determinants collected from literature and allows users to define new ones. Application to an agriculture case enables the sustainable performance of suppliers (farmers) to be evaluated and compared

CBR and MBR techniques: review for an application in the emergencies domain

The purpose of this document is to provide an in-depth analysis of current reasoning engine practice and the integration strategies of Case Based Reasoning and Model Based Reasoning that will be used in the design and development of the RIMSAT system. RIMSAT (Remote Intelligent Management Support and Training) is a European Commission funded project designed to: a.. Provide an innovative, 'intelligent', knowledge based solution aimed at improving the quality of critical decisions b.. Enhance the competencies and responsiveness of individuals and organisations involved in highly complex, safety critical incidents - irrespective of their location. In other words, RIMSAT aims to design and implement a decision support system that using Case Base Reasoning as well as Model Base Reasoning technology is applied in the management of emergency situations. This document is part of a deliverable for RIMSAT project, and although it has been done in close contact with the requirements of the project, it provides an overview wide enough for providing a state of the art in integration strategies between CBR and MBR technologies.Postprint (published version

Optimization for Decision Making II

In the current context of the electronic governance of society, both administrations and citizens are demanding the greater participation of all the actors involved in the decision-making process relative to the governance of society. This book presents collective works published in the recent Special Issue (SI) entitled “Optimization for Decision Making II”. These works give an appropriate response to the new challenges raised, the decision-making process can be done by applying different methods and tools, as well as using different objectives. In real-life problems, the formulation of decision-making problems and the application of optimization techniques to support decisions are particularly complex and a wide range of optimization techniques and methodologies are used to minimize risks, improve quality in making decisions or, in general, to solve problems. In addition, a sensitivity or robustness analysis should be done to validate/analyze the influence of uncertainty regarding decision-making. This book brings together a collection of inter-/multi-disciplinary works applied to the optimization of decision making in a coherent manner

A strategic decision support tool for shipyard production performance evaluation and support in budgeting for performance improvement

This research has been motivated by a demand from industry for an efficient decision support tool for shipyards to select and implement the right performance improvement strategies that fit the nature of their own business. This research project has developed a strategic approach, named shipyard production performance management (SPPM), to support shipyards to optimise their performance management strategy. The key functionalities of the algorithm include performance evaluation and budget optimisation for planning the improvement activities. SPPM is designed to evaluate the production performance using an advanced approach based on Key Performance Indicator (KPI) principles. The production performance of the shipyard is reviewed comprehensively from seven aspects, including Health and Safety, economic, environmental, technical, human resource, security and supply chain management. In total, there are 30 KPIs with their calculation details defined to measure the performance from these perspectives. Accordingly, the hotspots can be identified to prioritise the focus for the future improvement. This is not only to select the suitable emerging technology, but also to determine the capital investment required for such activities. How to optimise the budget for performance improvement then becomes the next question for which the shipyards need to find a solution. The budget optimisation function in SPPM has two functions named Performance Based Budgeting (PBB) and Budget Allocation Optimisation (BAO). PBB defines the total budget required with its allocation via adopting the framework of Cooperate Performance Management (CPM), while BAO applies when the total available fund is restricted. Depending on the decision context and data availability, the BAO can be performed by different calculation methods, including multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), utility theory and mathematical programming, for which procedures have been developed in this research. The development of SPPM is supported by a comprehensive knowledge-based that contains various well-established theories and models, practical experience shared by shipyards as well as numerous relevant researches in the field. More than just direct usage of this knowledge base, SPPM is the extension and combination of various existing theories or the application of these theories in new fields. Benefited from involvement of the shipyards, the developed algorithm has strong practicality, which has been developed as the extracted essence from intensive researches, taking into account of usefulness in measuring performance of each PPI, the data availability of the input parameters, and the level of acceptability and comprehensibility of the algorithm for users, etc. SPPM evaluate the production performance from multiple angles, such as technical, socioeconomics, sustainability, collaboration with third parties, and all the supportive and administrative activities at the shipyard, etc., and provide step-by-step instruction for the assessment. Besides, this tool has also provided the function that allows centralised performance data management. To sum up from the points above, the SPPM is an innovative and advanced strategic approach that can provide valuable support for the shipyard production performance management.This research has been motivated by a demand from industry for an efficient decision support tool for shipyards to select and implement the right performance improvement strategies that fit the nature of their own business. This research project has developed a strategic approach, named shipyard production performance management (SPPM), to support shipyards to optimise their performance management strategy. The key functionalities of the algorithm include performance evaluation and budget optimisation for planning the improvement activities. SPPM is designed to evaluate the production performance using an advanced approach based on Key Performance Indicator (KPI) principles. The production performance of the shipyard is reviewed comprehensively from seven aspects, including Health and Safety, economic, environmental, technical, human resource, security and supply chain management. In total, there are 30 KPIs with their calculation details defined to measure the performance from these perspectives. Accordingly, the hotspots can be identified to prioritise the focus for the future improvement. This is not only to select the suitable emerging technology, but also to determine the capital investment required for such activities. How to optimise the budget for performance improvement then becomes the next question for which the shipyards need to find a solution. The budget optimisation function in SPPM has two functions named Performance Based Budgeting (PBB) and Budget Allocation Optimisation (BAO). PBB defines the total budget required with its allocation via adopting the framework of Cooperate Performance Management (CPM), while BAO applies when the total available fund is restricted. Depending on the decision context and data availability, the BAO can be performed by different calculation methods, including multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), utility theory and mathematical programming, for which procedures have been developed in this research. The development of SPPM is supported by a comprehensive knowledge-based that contains various well-established theories and models, practical experience shared by shipyards as well as numerous relevant researches in the field. More than just direct usage of this knowledge base, SPPM is the extension and combination of various existing theories or the application of these theories in new fields. Benefited from involvement of the shipyards, the developed algorithm has strong practicality, which has been developed as the extracted essence from intensive researches, taking into account of usefulness in measuring performance of each PPI, the data availability of the input parameters, and the level of acceptability and comprehensibility of the algorithm for users, etc. SPPM evaluate the production performance from multiple angles, such as technical, socioeconomics, sustainability, collaboration with third parties, and all the supportive and administrative activities at the shipyard, etc., and provide step-by-step instruction for the assessment. Besides, this tool has also provided the function that allows centralised performance data management. To sum up from the points above, the SPPM is an innovative and advanced strategic approach that can provide valuable support for the shipyard production performance management

LIBERAL AGRICULTURAL TRADE AS A PUBLIC GOOD: FREE TRADE VERSUS FREE RIDING UNDER GATT

International Relations/Trade,

Decision making study: methods and applications of evidential reasoning and judgment analysis

Decision making study has been the multi-disciplinary research involving operations researchers, management scientists, statisticians, mathematical psychologists and economists as well as others. This study aims to investigate the theory and methodology of decision making research and apply them to different contexts in real cases. The study has reviewed the literature of Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM), Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach, Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM) movement, Social Judgment Theory (SJT), and Adaptive Toolbox (AT) program. On the basis of these literatures, two methods, Evidence-based Trade-Off (EBTO) and Judgment Analysis with Heuristic Modelling (JA-HM), have been proposed and developed to accomplish decision making problems under different conditions. In the EBTO method, we propose a novel framework to aid people s decision making under uncertainty and imprecise goal. Under the framework, the imprecise goal is objectively modelled through an analytical structure, and is independent of the task requirement; the task requirement is specified by the trade-off strategy among criteria of the analytical structure through an importance weighting process, and is subject to the requirement change of a particular decision making task; the evidence available, that could contribute to the evaluation of general performance of the decision alternatives, are formulated with belief structures which are capable of capturing various format of uncertainties that arise from the absence of data, incomplete information and subjective judgments. The EBTO method was further applied in a case study of Soldier system decision making. The application has demonstrated that EBTO, as a tool, is able to provide a holistic analysis regarding the requirements of Soldier missions, the physical conditions of Soldiers, and the capability of their equipment and weapon systems, which is critical in domain. By drawing the cross-disciplinary literature from NDM and AT, the JA-HM extended the traditional Judgment Analysis (JA) method, through a number of novel methodological procedures, to account for the unique features of decision making tasks under extreme time pressure and dynamic shifting situations. These novel methodological procedures include, the notion of decision point to deconstruct the dynamic shifting situations in a way that decision problem could be identified and formulated; the classification of routine and non-routine problems, and associated data alignment process to enable meaningful decision data analysis across different decision makers (DMs); the notion of composite cue to account for the DMs iterative process of information perception and comprehension in dynamic task environment; the application of computational models of heuristics to account for the time constraints and process dynamics of DMs decision making process; and the application of cross-validation process to enable the methodological principle of competitive testing of decision models. The JA-HM was further applied in a case study of fire emergency decision making. The application has been the first behavioural test of the validity of the computational models of heuristics, in predicting the DMs decision making during fire emergency response. It has also been the first behavioural test of the validity of the non-compensatory heuristics in predicting the DMs decisions on ranking task. The findings identified extend the literature of AT and NDM, and have implications for the fire emergency decision making

Multi-criteria decision-making in whole process design

PhD ThesisIn recent years, the chemical and pharmaceutical industries have faced increased development times and costs with fewer novel chemicals being discovered. This has resulted in many companies focusing on innovative research and development as they consider this key to business success. In particular, a number of leading industrial organisations have adopted the principles of Whole Process Design (WPD). WPD considers the optimisation of the entire product development process, from raw materials to end product, rather than focusing on each individual unit operation. The complexity involved in the implementation of WPD requires rationalised decision-making, often with limited or uncertain information. This thesis assesses the most widely applied methods in Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) in conjunction with the results of two interviews and two questionnaires that identified the industrial requirements for decision-making during WPD. From the findings of this work, a novel decision-making methodology was proposed, the outcome of which allows a decision-maker to visually interpret their decision results with associated levels of uncertainty. To validate the proposed methodology, a software framework was developed that incorporates two other decision-making approaches, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and ELimination Et Choix Traduisant la REalité trois (ELECTRE III). The framework was then applied to a number of industrial case studies to validate the application of the proposed methodology.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) and Chemistry Innovatio

Measurement in marketing

We distinguish three senses of the concept of measurement (measurement as the selection of observable indicators of theoretical concepts, measurement as the collection of data from respondents, and measurement as the formulation of measurement models linking observable indicators to latent factors representing the theoretical concepts), and we review important issues related to measurement in each of these senses. With regard to measurement in the first sense, we distinguish the steps of construct definition and item generation, and we review scale development efforts reported in three major marketing journals since 2000 to illustrate these steps and derive practical guidelines. With regard to measurement in the second sense, we look at the survey process from the respondent's perspective and discuss the goals that may guide participants' behavior during a survey, the cognitive resources that respondents devote to answering survey questions, and the problems that may occur at the various steps of the survey process. Finally, with regard to measurement in the third sense, we cover both reflective and formative measurement models, and we explain how researchers can assess the quality of measurement in both types of measurement models and how they can ascertain the comparability of measurements across different populations of respondents or conditions of measurement. We also provide a detailed empirical example of measurement analysis for reflective measurement models