Challenges in Complex Systems Science

FuturICT foundations are social science, complex systems science, and ICT. The main concerns and challenges in the science of complex systems in the context of FuturICT are laid out in this paper with special emphasis on the Complex Systems route to Social Sciences. This include complex systems having: many heterogeneous interacting parts; multiple scales; complicated transition laws; unexpected or unpredicted emergence; sensitive dependence on initial conditions; path-dependent dynamics; networked hierarchical connectivities; interaction of autonomous agents; self-organisation; non-equilibrium dynamics; combinatorial explosion; adaptivity to changing environments; co-evolving subsystems; ill-defined boundaries; and multilevel dynamics. In this context, science is seen as the process of abstracting the dynamics of systems from data. This presents many challenges including: data gathering by large-scale experiment, participatory sensing and social computation, managing huge distributed dynamic and heterogeneous databases; moving from data to dynamical models, going beyond correlations to cause-effect relationships, understanding the relationship between simple and comprehensive models with appropriate choices of variables, ensemble modeling and data assimilation, modeling systems of systems of systems with many levels between micro and macro; and formulating new approaches to prediction, forecasting, and risk, especially in systems that can reflect on and change their behaviour in response to predictions, and systems whose apparently predictable behaviour is disrupted by apparently unpredictable rare or extreme events. These challenges are part of the FuturICT agenda

A Critical Review of Deep Learning-Based Multi-Sensor Fusion Techniques

In this review, we provide a detailed coverage of multi-sensor fusion techniques that use RGB stereo images and a sparse LiDAR-projected depth map as input data to output a dense depth map prediction. We cover state-of-the-art fusion techniques which, in recent years, have been deep learning-based methods that are end-to-end trainable. We then conduct a comparative evaluation of the state-of-the-art techniques and provide a detailed analysis of their strengths and limitations as well as the applications they are best suited for

Point cloud hand-object segmentation using multimodal imaging with thermal and color data for safe robotic object handover

This paper presents an application of neural networks operating on multimodal 3D data (3D point cloud, RGB, thermal) to effectively and precisely segment human hands and objects held in hand to realize a safe human–robot object handover. We discuss the problems encountered in building a multimodal sensor system, while the focus is on the calibration and alignment of a set of cameras including RGB, thermal, and NIR cameras. We propose the use of a copper–plastic chessboard calibration target with an internal active light source (near-infrared and visible light). By brief heating, the calibration target could be simultaneously and legibly captured by all cameras. Based on the multimodal dataset captured by our sensor system, PointNet, PointNet++, and RandLA-Net are utilized to verify the effectiveness of applying multimodal point cloud data for hand–object segmentation. These networks were trained on various data modes (XYZ, XYZ-T, XYZ-RGB, and XYZ-RGB-T). The experimental results show a significant improvement in the segmentation performance of XYZ-RGB-T (mean Intersection over Union: 82.8% by RandLA-Net) compared with the other three modes (77.3% by XYZ-RGB, 35.7% by XYZ-T, 35.7% by XYZ), in which it is worth mentioning that the Intersection over Union for the single class of hand achieves 92.6%

WikiSensing: A collaborative sensor management system with trust assessment for big data

Big Data for sensor networks and collaborative systems have become ever more important in the digital economy and is a focal point of technological interest while posing many noteworthy challenges. This research addresses some of the challenges in the areas of online collaboration and Big Data for sensor networks. This research demonstrates WikiSensing (www.wikisensing.org), a high performance, heterogeneous, collaborative data cloud for managing and analysis of real-time sensor data. The system is based on the Big Data architecture with comprehensive functionalities for smart city sensor data integration and analysis. The system is fully functional and served as the main data management platform for the 2013 UPLondon Hackathon. This system is unique as it introduced a novel methodology that incorporates online collaboration with sensor data. While there are other platforms available for sensor data management WikiSensing is one of the first platforms that enable online collaboration by providing services to store and query dynamic sensor information without any restriction of the type and format of sensor data. An emerging challenge of collaborative sensor systems is modelling and assessing the trustworthiness of sensors and their measurements. This is with direct relevance to WikiSensing as an open collaborative sensor data management system. Thus if the trustworthiness of the sensor data can be accurately assessed, WikiSensing will be more than just a collaborative data management system for sensor but also a platform that provides information to the users on the validity of its data. Hence this research presents a new generic framework for capturing and analysing sensor trustworthiness considering the different forms of evidence available to the user. It uses an extensible set of metrics that can represent such evidence and use Bayesian analysis to develop a trust classification model. Based on this work there are several publications and others are at the final stage of submission. Further improvement is also planned to make the platform serve as a cloud service accessible to any online user to build up a community of collaborators for smart city research.Open Acces

Malware in the Future? Forecasting of Analyst Detection of Cyber Events

There have been extensive efforts in government, academia, and industry to anticipate, forecast, and mitigate cyber attacks. A common approach is time-series forecasting of cyber attacks based on data from network telescopes, honeypots, and automated intrusion detection/prevention systems. This research has uncovered key insights such as systematicity in cyber attacks. Here, we propose an alternate perspective of this problem by performing forecasting of attacks that are analyst-detected and -verified occurrences of malware. We call these instances of malware cyber event data. Specifically, our dataset was analyst-detected incidents from a large operational Computer Security Service Provider (CSSP) for the U.S. Department of Defense, which rarely relies only on automated systems. Our data set consists of weekly counts of cyber events over approximately seven years. Since all cyber events were validated by analysts, our dataset is unlikely to have false positives which are often endemic in other sources of data. Further, the higher-quality data could be used for a number for resource allocation, estimation of security resources, and the development of effective risk-management strategies. We used a Bayesian State Space Model for forecasting and found that events one week ahead could be predicted. To quantify bursts, we used a Markov model. Our findings of systematicity in analyst-detected cyber attacks are consistent with previous work using other sources. The advanced information provided by a forecast may help with threat awareness by providing a probable value and range for future cyber events one week ahead. Other potential applications for cyber event forecasting include proactive allocation of resources and capabilities for cyber defense (e.g., analyst staffing and sensor configuration) in CSSPs. Enhanced threat awareness may improve cybersecurity.Comment: Revised version resubmitted to journa

Cluster-based Vibration Analysis of Structures with GSP

This article describes a divide-and-conquer strategy suited for vibration monitoring applications. Based on a low-cost embedded network of microelectromechanical accelerometers, the proposed architecture strives to reduce both power consumption and computational resources. Moreover, it eases the sensor deployment on large structures by exploiting a novel clustering scheme, which consists of unconventional and nonoverlapped sensing configurations. Signal processing techniques for inter- and intracluster data assembly are introduced to allow for a fullscale assessment of the structural integrity. More specifically, the capability of graph signal processing is adopted for the first time in vibration-based monitoring scenarios to capture the spatial relationship between acceleration data. The experimental validation, conducted on a steel beam perturbed with additive mass, reveals high accuracy in damage detection tasks. Deviations in spectral content and mode shape envelopes are correctly revealed regardless of environmental factors and operational uncertainties. Furthermore, an additional key advantage of the implemented architecture relies on its compliance with blind modal investigations, an approach that favors the implementation of autonomous smart monitoring systems

Approaches for advancing scientific understanding of macrosystems

The emergence of macrosystems ecology (MSE), which focuses on regional- to continental-scale ecological patterns and processes, builds upon a history of long-term and broad-scale studies in ecology. Scientists face the difficulty of integrating the many elements that make up macrosystems, which consist of hierarchical processes at interacting spatial and temporal scales. Researchers must also identify the most relevant scales and variables to be considered, the required data resources, and the appropriate study design to provide the proper inferences. The large volumes of multi-thematic data often associated with macrosystem studies typically require validation, standardization, and assimilation. Finally, analytical approaches need to describe how cross-scale and hierarchical dynamics and interactions relate to macroscale phenomena. Here, we elaborate on some key methodological challenges of MSE research and discuss existing and novel approaches to meet them